ATL: INGRID - Models

[ROCK]

whats interesting on the 12Z CMC......the frontal system absorbs Ingrid and brings her remains right over upper TX coast...lol.....then the CMC spins up another TS in the BOC...

wash...rinse...repeat....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

For once the cmc has become my most favorite model. Hope it outperforms them all. Come on cmc don't let us down

we all have our favorites and I have to give the CMC kudos......the CMC has never wavered one bit from a MX landfall...so major props to it....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Was being half sarcastic half serious. I was just saying that because it showed us getting some nice rains. Hopefully it finally gets one right.

[tailgater]

Nam 36 hrs. out wants to bring a good bit of rain to LRGV

[ROCK]

looks like it sends a piece of energy north.....out 60hrs now.....drifting northward.....not in any hurry

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_21.png


66hrs......might get some rain in Texas if that verified....still think you guys will get some showers sling up,,,,


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_23.png

[Rgv20]

0zNAM total Rainfall thru Tuesday Morning....10+ inches just southeast of Brownsville.



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[ROCK]

0Z GFS doesnt even get Ingrid to landfall.....pushes it back into the BOC to start over.....

[Bailey1777]

I GIVE UP!!!!!

[Rgv20]

0Z GFS doesnt even get Ingrid to landfall.....pushes it back into the BOC to start over.....

I see the 0zGFS has Ingrid making Landfall just south of Tampico Monday Evening. It weakens Ingrid fairly quickly in the Mountains of Mexico.


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091400/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

[Rgv20]

0zUKEMT is quite a bit North on this run, It has Ingrid making landfall in the NE Mexican Coast by Monday Morning.



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[Bailey1777]

looks like the border...thats where i could see it going.

[ROCK]

look at the loop of the GFS....then look at the loop of the 0Z NAVGEM.....same solution....

both take Ingrid up towards Tampico.....breifly makes landfall and then is pushed back into the BOC.....I swear I cant dream this up.....the NAVGEM even goes as far as Ingrid coming back down and turns around again and goes into Texas at 180hr....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/

[ROCK]

12Z ensembles......you see... goes up then comes down...maybe makes landfall but the trend is for it to turn around and go back to where it was born...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_17.png

[Bailey1777]

wow what do you even do with that?

[ROCK]

wow what do you even do with that?

well the 12Z CMC at 240hr has another storm in the BOC....might be Ingrid or whats left of her..... Euro is showing that also

[Rgv20]

look at the loop of the GFS....then look at the loop of the 0Z NAVGEM.....same solution....

both take Ingrid up towards Tampico.....breifly makes landfall and then is pushed back into the BOC.....I swear I cant dream this up.....the NAVGEM even goes as far as Ingrid coming back down and turns around again and goes into Texas at 180hr....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/

I think its a different system by looking at the 850mb vorticity in the GFS and NAVGEM....Guidance continues to have lower pressures in the BOC in the long range.

[Rgv20]

0zGFDL Ensembles



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[Rgv20]

0zUKMET Text Forecast: So far this is an outlier solution.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropicalcyclone/wtnt80.txt

TROPICAL STORM INGRID ANALYSED POSITION : 19.3N 95.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102013



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 14.09.2013 19.3N 95.0W INTENSE

12UTC 14.09.2013 20.3N 94.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 15.09.2013 21.9N 94.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 15.09.2013 23.3N 95.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 16.09.2013 24.4N 97.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.09.2013 25.2N 98.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 17.09.2013 25.7N 99.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 17.09.2013 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



12zECMWF has Ingrid making landfall just South of Tampico in 72hrs Monday Evening. As far as I can tell (24hrs increments in the ECMWF) the Euro has Ingrid tracking NE until Saturday Evening than after that its a straight westward track until landfall.

[LaBreeze]

0Z GFS doesnt even get Ingrid to landfall.....pushes it back into the BOC to start over.....

Maybe she's shy of Manuel.

[LaBreeze]

look at the loop of the GFS....then look at the loop of the 0Z NAVGEM.....same solution....

both take Ingrid up towards Tampico.....breifly makes landfall and then is pushed back into the BOC.....I swear I cant dream this up.....the NAVGEM even goes as far as Ingrid coming back down and turns around again and goes into Texas at 180hr....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/

OK, now you have the makings of a good movie, Rock.

[jinftl]

12z model runs seem to have caught on to current NNE motion - followed by a hard left that keeps the tracks south of 25N