ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:36 pm

Time_Zone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
Easy big fella ... E-A-S-Y ... the storm was supposed to be doing this per the modeling and forecasts. I wouldn't be boarding up those windows on the Texas Gulf Coast just yet. :wink:


Exactly what I was going to say. The majority of the models had Ingrid moving NNE as the upper low to its NW shifts a bit more to its west tonight. So it's behaving just as forecast. Once the upper low weakens/dissipates and the ridge rebuilds to its north it will take a westerly turn, probably moving inland just north of Tampico. I see the NHC finally came around and is forecasting Ingrid to become a hurricane. Question is, how strong? Cat 2 or 3?


Wow you really think this could make a run at major status? That would be an absolute disaster.

That also would be something huge for this season IMO because Hurricane Alex from 2010 only managed to become a strong Cat.2 with a similar track.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:40 pm

well, there's nothing to indicate major status, but it is strengthening faster than any model predicted. Its position with respect to the upper low is quite favorable for strengthening.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:55 pm

NHC at 10 PM CDT advisory adds 70kts to forecast.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:55 pm

Image
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#625 Postby Hammy » Fri Sep 13, 2013 9:56 pm

Forecast peak continues to creep up, 11pm shows 80mph prior to landfall.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#626 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:01 pm

Read 10 PM CDT Discussion here.
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#627 Postby HurricaneRyan » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:02 pm

I'm not surprised Ingrid is strengthening fast. She's stationary over water.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#628 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:04 pm

An excerpt from discussion.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.
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#629 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:05 pm

hey guys in vbhoutex defense he said ne trend.....i believe a trend would be more than the nhc jog......just saying.
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#630 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:16 pm

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow:
I'm writing my tropical research paper on this topic this semester ozonepete!
Good timing right? :P


Wow, that's excellent! This is a perfect case to add if you have the time. I would love to read it when you're done. Best of luck!
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Re: Re:

#631 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:20 pm

Hammy wrote:Looks like the level of shear may be very slightly decreasing based on CIMSS chart.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

ozonepete wrote:It's likely due to the very warm water and the shape of the BOC. The wind field tends to get forced into a circular pattern due to the curvature of the land with its blocking mountains and of course a circular shape is more symmetrical and thus allows for the vorticity to tighten up.


This is what allowed Nate in 2011 to become a hurricane briefly despite dry air and shear, correct?


I couldn't say anything without looking back at the data. Unfortunately I'm overloaded with work right now and have a lot of students to grade for tropical meteorology so I don't think I can get to it. Maybe SouthTexasStorms is looking at this for his paper? If not, maybe you should check it out for your paper, STS?
Last edited by ozonepete on Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#632 Postby Rgv20 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:24 pm

Saved Loop: Ingrid putting on a show tonight!

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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#633 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:24 pm

after reading the 10pm disscusion i am feeling more confident of a wider turn at a higher lat. north of tampico closer to brownsville. ---NOT OFFICIAL JUST MY OPINION---
Last edited by Bailey1777 on Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#634 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:30 pm

Rgv20 wrote:Saved Loop: Ingrid putting on a show tonight!

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/631/j15.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

You can definitely tell that conditions are still not 100% perfect. SW/S shear?
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#635 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 10:54 pm

just curious does anyone have an opinion on why ingrid is split in to two different storm complexes?
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#636 Postby jinftl » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:01 pm

Quite a blow up near and even a bit west of the center

Image
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Re:

#637 Postby ozonepete » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:03 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:after reading the 10pm disscusion i am feeling more confident of a wider turn at a higher lat. north of tampico closer to brownsville. ---NOT OFFICIAL JUST MY OPINION---



You have a chance at that since the NHC has said they have a low confidence in the track right now. Let's hope so since you guys could really use the rain up there. :)
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Re: ATL: INGRID - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby ROCK » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:05 pm

well we all can watch Ingrid for days if the 0Z GFS is correct.....Ingrid gets toward the coast then gets pushed down back into the extreme BOC to start over.... :lol:
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#639 Postby USTropics » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:06 pm

Latest radar image showing healthy banding near the center:

Image
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#640 Postby Bailey1777 » Fri Sep 13, 2013 11:07 pm

thats what im hoping for ozone.....just some rain....pleaseeeeee
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