wrkh99 wrote:its at that already now Colin
Right. I'm sticking
cat 5 at 10pm ????? What do you think
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wxman57
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Dvorak
Dvorak numbers last hour are still 6.5 - no change. Should be no intensity change at 10pm above 140-145. Remember that the Dvorak technique is not an exact science. Estimates may be off 20-30kts on average, and sometimes more. With that much uncertainty, I still don't think the NHC would call it a Cat 5 without verification by recon, even if Dvorak was 7.0 or 7.5. But then, I didn't think they'd upgrade tropical wave Grace to a TS a few weeks ago when recon couldn't find a circulation...
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I'm suspcious about the Dvorak numbers. From reading the NHC discussions it seems that they get them more frequently then we get them on that site. Apparently they have more up to date numbers that they don't release to the public, at least not before they see it. Anyway, I think NHC will be still be conservative just raise the winds to 145 mph.
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