ATL: HUMBERTO - Remnants - Discussion

[jinftl]

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013

ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN
10 HOURS...A 13/2307Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 37-38 KT
NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE MISSING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE
STRONGER WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN PRESENT. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS
ONLY LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY CYCLE.

HOWEVER...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG WITH SUB-26C SSTS
SHOULD COMBINE TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.

HUMBERTO IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN A REMNANT LOW FOR ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...AT WHICH
TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SHARPLY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING OVER 28C SSTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION BACK INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 3...WITH HUMBERTO POSSIBLY REGAINING
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS
THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5.

[Hammy]

One of few times I've actually seen the forecast show effective dissipation and regeneration during the forecast period.

[TheStormExpert]

One of few times I've actually seen the forecast show effective dissipation and regeneration during the forecast period.

And after it briefly dissipates it regenerates and becomes a hurricane again!

[cycloneye]

Maybe it does a Nadine?

[brunota2003]

One of few times I've actually seen the forecast show effective dissipation and regeneration during the forecast period.

Not only does the forecast show degeneration, then regeneration...but it is then forecast to become a hurricane! I think Humberto just doesn't know what it wants to do...wow!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 24.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 25.4N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 15/0000Z 26.3N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 28.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 30.3N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 32.6N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[jinftl]

this may be one for the die hards to keep tabs on - it lacks the media or close-in factor to garner much other attention - but that said, this could be a very interesting and extended lifespan (and ACE builder for the season that should have but hasnt) - more than 1 life!

One of few times I've actually seen the forecast show effective dissipation and regeneration during the forecast period.

Not only does the forecast show degeneration, then regeneration...but it is then forecast to become a hurricane! I think Humberto just doesn't know what it wants to do...wow!

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 24.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 25.4N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 15/0000Z 26.3N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0000Z 28.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 30.3N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 32.6N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe it does a Nadine?

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Never realized how crazy of a track that storm took until looking at that, looks kind of like a roller coaster!

[bamajammer4eva]

I wonder if they implement this new rule for 2013 since regeneration is anticipated?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130405_p ... hanges.pdf

2) Use of tropical cyclone watch/warnings for post-tropical cyclones; Issuance of NHC advisories for post-tropical cyclones

[Hammy]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmirimg&storm_identifier=AL092013&starting_image=2013AL09_4KMIRIMG_201309140000.GIF

Reminds me of the East Pacific systems as they move out into the open waters. I'm beginning to wonder if there will be anything left of Humberto once it finds favorable conditions.

[cycloneye]

Last advisory was issued but the Humberto story is not finish yet.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115635&p=2343920#p2343920

[CrazyC83]

Not when there is no land in the way. No advisories during this period. We'll likely have Code Orange at least at the next TWO though.

[RL3AO]

That is a forecast like I've never seen before.

[CrazyC83]

50% chance next 48 hours, 70% chance overall next 120 hours.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141721
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM INGRID LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

ALTHOUGH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED THE LAST ADVISORY
ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IN THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE REACHES WARMER WATERS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[galaxy401]

That is a forecast like I've never seen before.

Yeah never seen an advisory that has degenerated and still forecast to reach hurricane strength in the same advisory.

[SouthDadeFish]

Yeah that is the first time I've seen a storm forecast to regenerate into a cane (doesn't mean it's the first time though). Pretty cool!

[cycloneye]

It has been renumbered Invest 94L.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al092013_al942013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309141822
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP

[cycloneye]

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. SOME DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS FORMED WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS AS THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES WARMER WATERS.

[tolakram]

Someone fired some clouds at Humberto.

I wonder what exactly that was? Running through a zone of higher moisture?

[CrazyC83]

Someone fired some clouds at Humberto.

I wonder what exactly that was? Running through a zone of higher moisture?

Most likely. It would need to sustain it until at least tomorrow morning to be upgraded back to a TC (probably a tropical storm), and shear remains very strong in the area. Most likely late tomorrow into Monday the shear will come down.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
INGRID...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME DISORGANIZED
SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR REDEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN FIVE DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH