ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Very strong winds at flight level and sfmr.

111530 2027N 09416W 8428 01456 9977 +171 +171 134063 065 050 020 00
111600 2026N 09417W 8436 01442 9976 +171 +171 132057 063 056 028 00

[NDG]

Ingrid looks like to be close to a hurricane and looks to have moved NE or NNE during the night.

[cycloneye]

There is the center down to 988 mbs.

[Dean4Storms]

If the CDO on satellite is any indication of the center this Storm has moved NE and faster than any 3mph.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
700 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES FIND INGRID A LITTLE
STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 94.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

[jinftl]

Current motion to NNE at 5mph

AT 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS
LOCATED BY RECONNAISSANCE PLANES NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/H. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY. INGRID SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN
THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...105
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.

[HurricaneDREW92]

At this rate wouldn't be half surprised if we have Hurricane Ingrid at11, not saying It's going to happen, Just I wouldn't be surprised.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track up to 60kts.

AL, 10, 2013091412, , BEST, 0, 203N, 946W, 60, 989, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 200, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INGRID, M,

[cycloneye]

TXNT23 KNES 141205
TCSNTL

A. 10L (INGRID)

B. 14/1145Z

C. 20.2N

D. 94.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...PARTIAL 0922Z AMSU PASS REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ABOUT THE LLCC MEASURING AT LEAST 0.7. AT 1145Z 0.8 WHITE BANDING YIELDS
A DT OF 4.0. MET IS 3.0 AND PT IS 3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ

[stormkite]

The science of storm tracking has come a long way in the last decade However one of the most interesting and puzzling questions about cyclones/hurricanes is why do some just go against all the science and rapidly change course and intensity without any warning.


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Dean4Storms]

The science of storm tracking has come a long way in the last decade However one of the most interesting and puzzling questions about cyclones/hurricanes is why do some just go against all the science and rapidly change course and intensity without any warning.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Imagine placing a Top on a table and then applying a wind to just the top portion, maybe the middle portion or even the lowest portion or maybe all of those sections at the same time and from different directions. Add convective process that can also affect a LLC and you realize just hard it becomes to accurately predict what they might do. This becomes even more of a nightmare where there are weak steering patterns or several big scale changes taking place in the atmosphere trying to determine which ridge or trough will affect it the most.

[northjaxpro]

`The temporary jog to the north/northeast will give Ingrid more time over open water and should allow the cyclone to likely become a huricane by tonight. The CDO is looking impressive this morning.

[HurricaneDREW92]

`The temporary jog to the north/northeast will give Ingrid more time over open water and should allow the cyclone to likely become a huricane by tonight. The CDO is looking impressive this morning.

Already 70mph...

[Gustywind]

SSD numbers... increasing TS Ingrid

14/1145 UTC 20.2N 94.6W T4.0/4.0 INGRID
14/0545 UTC 19.6N 95.3W T3.0/3.0 INGRID

[Chris_in_Tampa]

AF Sonde:
Center, 988mb, 7 knots

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 141303
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL102013
A. 14/12:43:30Z
B. 20 deg 20 min N
094 deg 33 min W
C. 850 mb 1315 m
D. 49 kt
E. 136 deg 14 nm
F. 234 deg 59 kt
G. 136 deg 15 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 17 C / 1520 m
J. 22 C / 1509 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 0710A INGRID OB 11
MAX FL WIND 65 KT 067/16 11:15:30Z

[Time_Zone]

This thing is just absolutely bombing out there right now. Looks like it has detached itself away from Manuel and shear is no longer an issue.

Quite possibly could be undergoing RI right now. Very dangerous situation.

[tolakram]

The science of storm tracking has come a long way in the last decade However one of the most interesting and puzzling questions about cyclones/hurricanes is why do some just go against all the science and rapidly change course and intensity without any warning.


This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Its been a long time since Camille. Hurricane forecasting and modeling has improved greatly since then. Intensity, well not so much.

[RL3AO]

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

Two T-numbers in 24 hours is quite impressive.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Latest Saved AVN Loop:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us