00Z models shift NORTH

[Anonymous]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

A rather (suspicious?) jump to the north of the 18Z runs. Hmmmmm...

[jfaul]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

A rather (suspicious?) jump to the north of the 18Z runs. Hmmmmm...

very suspicious indeed...a little early to buy those solutions

[obxhurricane]

I don't think it's suspicious at all. I encourage all here to take a close inspection of the loner range models. At days 5 through 7 there is a very noticaeable weakness in the ridge at 75W. Partly due to the remnants of Henri...but also because of the weak trough swinging through the OH valley. Also...take not of the building high over the midwest in this time frame. Altogether...it seems reasonable to assume a recurve at 75...or at the very least a stall in the vicinity of the Northern Bahamas. All of this also coincides with climo.

Coastal raker from Hatteras to Long Island. I've said it. If I'm wrong I'll be more than happy to come back and eat crow.

[Rainband]

I don't think it's suspicious at all. I encourage all here to take a close inspection of the loner range models. At days 5 through 7 there is a very noticaeable weakness in the ridge at 75W. Partly due to the remnants of Henri...but also because of the weak trough swinging through the OH valley. Also...take not of the building high over the midwest in this time frame. Altogether...it seems reasonable to assume a recurve at 75...or at the very least a stall in the vicinity of the Northern Bahamas. All of this also coincides with climo.

Coastal raker from Hatteras to Long Island. I've said it. If I'm wrong I'll be more than happy to come back and eat crow.

Do you like your crow well done with BBQ sauce

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

ewwwwwww...don't like those models....thanks for the update!

[obxhurricane]

Please serve with A1!

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

A rather (suspicious?) jump to the north of the 18Z runs. Hmmmmm...

I think if one follows the TPC plots, one can see this is where the model trends will go.

Individual MR/LR is not good with most all of the models (has not the GFS proven this). Ensembles tend to do a better job...and they are generally starting a NW shift (280°-310°) by D3.

Also, I've updated the WREL Model Map for 0Z trops as well.

Scott

[Stormcenter]

Yeah that's probably where they will point to tomorrow. But seriously though the have been shifting North and South and back North with every on run Isabelle. So what's the surprise? The models will change many times more before she makes her FIRST landfall.

[Anonymous]

Stormcenter, you are correct, the models will change, that's for sure...I'm just wondering if the 00Z models just hiccupped or are starting a trend further north. Anxious to see the 06Z suite.

[Colin]

I hope you're wrong obx!!! :o

[rob8303]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

A rather (suspicious?) jump to the north of the 18Z runs. Hmmmmm...

I think if one follows the TPC plots, one can see this is where the model trends will go.

Individual MR/LR is not good with most all of the models (has not the GFS proven this). Ensembles tend to do a better job...and they are generally starting a NW shift (280°-310°) by D3.

Also, I've updated the WREL Model Map for 0Z trops as well.

Scott

Scott, does that reduce CONUS landfall chances?

[Scott_inVA]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200313_model.html

A rather (suspicious?) jump to the north of the 18Z runs. Hmmmmm...

I think if one follows the TPC plots, one can see this is where the model trends will go.

Individual MR/LR is not good with most all of the models (has not the GFS proven this). Ensembles tend to do a better job...and they are generally starting a NW shift (280°-310°) by D3.

Also, I've updated the WREL Model Map for 0Z trops as well.

Scott

Scott, does that reduce CONUS landfall chances?

Probably *enhances* probability of CONUS landfall.
Just need to watch SFC Obs and how the models handle the developing ridge.

Scott