ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

Center is right under the coldest convection. Watch for some pretty quick pressure drops over the next 12 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

Impressive CDO, reminds me of Opal that sat down there and bombed!

[HurricaneDREW92]

The curse of the "I" storm!



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[hurricanes1234]

Possibly a hurricane by 11AM? This storm has deepened quickly, and if it is still a tropical storm by 11AM, it would likely be an extremely high-end tropical storm, like it already is.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RL3AO]

Possibly a hurricane by 11AM? This storm has deepened quickly, and if it is still a tropical storm by 11AM, it would likely be an extremely high-end tropical storm, like it already is.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Satellite estimates support a hurricane, but they have the benefit of recon so they will lean heavily on that.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Possibly a hurricane by 11AM? This storm has deepened quickly, and if it is still a tropical storm by 11AM, it would likely be an extremely high-end tropical storm, like it already is.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Satellite estimates support a hurricane, but they have the benefit of recon so they will lean heavily on that.

What does recon support so far, 60kts?

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[RL3AO]

Possibly a hurricane by 11AM? This storm has deepened quickly, and if it is still a tropical storm by 11AM, it would likely be an extremely high-end tropical storm, like it already is.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Satellite estimates support a hurricane, but they have the benefit of recon so they will lean heavily on that.

What does recon support so far, 60kts?

Yeah. So it won't take much to get a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder what that will do to the intensity forecast? Will they continue to be conservative, or get more aggressive?

[RL3AO]

The threat of devastating flooding cannot be overlooked. This could be quite bad for a lot of people in and around Tampico.

[hurricanes1234]

I wonder what that will do to the intensity forecast? Will they continue to be conservative, or get more aggressive?

They might make it more aggressive, which would be terrible for the area it's expected to landfall over, if it happens. A Category 2 definitely cannot be ruled out.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Time_Zone]

I wonder what that will do to the intensity forecast? Will they continue to be conservative, or get more aggressive?

I think they've been conservative enough with Ingrid so far.... hopefully for Mexico's sake this trend doesn't continue.

[brunota2003]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It looks like we may be seeing the beginning of a cycle of RI. RI is defined as a 30 knot increase in wind speed in 24 hours or less. The 5 am advisory was at 50 knots, so (at least operationally) winds would have to increase to 80 knots by 5 am tomorrow morning. If shear doesn't become an issue and it keeps moving away from the water it has been sitting over for so long, I could see it reaching 75 to 85 knots by tomorrow morning...if not sooner.

[Portastorm]

The threat of devastating flooding cannot be overlooked. This could be quite bad for a lot of people in and around Tampico.

I saw a graphic somewhere else in the last few days showing how much above normal that area of Mexico is for precipitation this summer. The land there is already soaked and Ingrid is just going to add a lot more misery to those good folks. I hope they know what's coming and can get as ready as they can.

[hurricanes1234]

Is it possible that they could evacuate? Where would they need to go if this happens?

[Tireman4]

Is it possible that they could evacuate? Where would they need to go if this happens?

I am sure ( I hope I am sure) they have plans. They must. This is not the coast's first rodeo....

[vbhoutex]

Impressive CDO, reminds me of Opal that sat down there and bombed!

I know you have memories of that, at least if you lived there in 1995. My parents lost their sailboat and had a lot of roof damage from her.
I hadn't even thought of Opal as a comparison, but I am starting to wonder.
I don't like what I am seeing with Ingrid since she has continued to do what I said she had to do to gain strength. Mexico doesn't need/can't take any more rain/anymore damage from another TC coming across the same area. I was not expecting to see strengthening like we have seen and continue to see because I did not expect the NE movement, unless this is part of a slow loop, which I would think would slow any strengthening due to upwelling. Going to have at least an eye and a half on Ingrid for the duration now since I don't like surprises when it comes to the tropics. Really a lot of parameters in play that have to be taken into account to figure this one out. Biggest player appears to be the ridge that is sitting on top of TX. If it holds as expected we may get some rains during this coming week, but not in amounts needed to break the drought(I know, watch out what you ask for :O). If it doesn't hold I really don't want to think about the end game on that one. Yesterday was the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Ike's visit to the Houston/Galveston/SE TX area.

[RL3AO]

76kt FL winds. Should get us Hurricane Ingrid at 11.

[Portastorm]

This is what I was talking about:



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[Alyono]

RI is not currently happening.

Just slow and steady development

Also, worth noting that alternative definitions of RI use a much higher standard. Some require pressure falls of 1.75mb/hr for a 24 hour period and I believe this is the first definition used in peer reviewed literature