ATL: INGRID - Models

[jinftl]

12z models below show intensity peaking just below hurricane strength up to a mid-level Cat 1...intensity forecasting has been a challegne with this storm more than anything so far however...but let's watch the trend of these on later runs today

[Portastorm]

Looks to me like more spread in the model tracks per these 12z runs, not to mention a little further north on the Mexican coastline compared to 6z.




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[ROCK]

the 0Z EURO has this making a hard left once she feels the ridge only to loop downward into MX.....the 6Z GFS never gets her out of the BOC after her first landfall..

[Alyono]

GFS somewhat stronger at 12Z... now takes the pressure down to 980mb. Must be showing less shear

[SouthDadeFish]

GFS somewhat stronger at 12Z... now takes the pressure down to 980mb. Must be showing less shear

Yes, it shows a favorable upper-level environment with an anticyclone setting up overhead.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to me like more spread in the model tracks per these 12z runs, not to mention a little further north on the Mexican coastline compared to 6z.


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There is one forecast path that has Ingrid making landfall on Texas.

Interesting to see that that some of the model have the remnant of Ingrid over Texas. Remnants of tropical storms or hurricanes can dump heavy rain over Texas like in 1921, Amelia (1978), Claudette (1979), and Allison (2001)

[crownweather]

From HPC, their Model Diagnostic Discussion with their model preference for Ingrid:

...TROPICAL STORM INGRID...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
THROUGH 16/0000Z...FOLLOWED BY THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE CURRENT NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST INDICATES TROPICAL
STORM INGRID SHOULD ATTAIN A HURRICANE STATUS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LANDFALLS CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER DELAYED AS
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING IN THE SLOWER DIRECTION. CONSIDERING
HURRICANE-RESOLVING/ATCF GUIDANCE...THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH
WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS ALTHOUGH THE LARGER MAJORITY OF THESE MODELS
LIKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WHICH IS WHERE THE NHC TRACK FOLLOWS.
IN TERMS OF THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS...MOST OF THESE PIECES
OF GUIDANCE ARE FASTER BY 24 HOURS WHICH INCLUDES THE 12Z
NAM...00Z CMC/UKMET...AND 09Z SREF MEAN. THROUGH 36
HOURS...16/0000Z...A BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
OFFERS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THEIR TRACK. BEYOND THAT PERIOD...THE
00Z ECWMF BECOMES SLOWER WHICH ENDS UP BEING JOINED BY THE SLOWEST
12Z GFS. THUS...WILL RECOMMEND THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEYOND
16/0000Z.

[CrazyC83]

Slower but moving storm = more time over water = more time to intensify.

[ROCK]

hmmm...looking at the ensembles means for last nights EURO.....interesting....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[ROCK]

12Z EURO has landfall in 48hrs...way faster than the GFS and south....waiting to see what it does after 48hrs...thats is what I am interested in.

72hrs it is gone from the surface map but I can see this looping back down...1008 pressure in the BOC...

[crownweather]

NAVGEM also landfalls in about 48 hours and loops southward into BOC before coming back north and regenerating into a TS. Makes a 2nd landfall late next week on the Louisiana coast. Gotta love it.

[ROCK]

NAVGEM also landfalls in about 48 hours and loops southward into BOC before coming back north and regenerating into a TS. Makes a 2nd landfall late next week on the Louisiana coast. Gotta love it.

yep and now the EURO looping back down up towards Texas then hangs a right turn into FL......now that is interesting!!!!

[ROCK]

I have this errie feeling INGRID is not done once she heads to MX if she even makes it.....if she doesnt make it then more time over water and the ridge craters...guidance keeps trending that way...

[HurriGuy]

whats interesting on the 12Z CMC......the frontal system absorbs Ingrid and brings her remains right over upper TX coast...lol.....then the CMC spins up another TS in the BOC...

wash...rinse...repeat....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

did you see NAVGEM? The same idea with throwing a system north towards TX/LA

[ROCK]

whats interesting on the 12Z CMC......the frontal system absorbs Ingrid and brings her remains right over upper TX coast...lol.....then the CMC spins up another TS in the BOC...

wash...rinse...repeat....


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

did you see NAVGEM? The same idea with throwing a system north towards TX/LA

pffft...did I see the NAVGEM?....me and the NAVGEM are like brothers now... yes, funny how the NAVGEM a few days ago kept her down in the BOC for a long time then shot her NE as the ridge implodes....now it looks like she might loop and hang out longer and the ridge does implode....NAVGEM might have got it right for all the wrong reasons!!

[tropicwatch]

Well the front is really dipping down into the northern GOM already, cutting off any high at the moment. It might take longer for the high to build in than it is expected to do.

[ROCK]

almost deep enough to pick her up...almost..

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: almost deep enough to pick her up...almost..

Already on the backside of the trough .. the ridge to the north should build in after that how strong and how fast it moves out will be key.

[Nikki]

:uarrow: almost deep enough to pick her up...almost..

Already on the backside of the trough .. the ridge to the north should build in after that how strong and how fast it moves out will be key.

So this will affect if she hits further North or South in Mexico, correct?

[LaBreeze]

NAVGEM also landfalls in about 48 hours and loops southward into BOC before coming back north and regenerating into a TS. Makes a 2nd landfall late next week on the Louisiana coast. Gotta love it.

How crazy is that?! That NAVGEM is something else.