ATL: INGRID - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Does the NHC issue a Special Advisory to update the intensity forecast? New data suggests perhaps 75 kt or even 80 kt might be justified.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

I assume they would wait until the next bulletin. I'm sure if it were directly affecting land or abou to then they would do a "flash warning/update"

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde found 82 kt winds at the surface...that supports an 80 kt intensity.

[hurricanes1234]

An intermediate advisory would be issued at 7PM CDT. If the upgrade is really necessary, they would upgrade it at that time. Otherwise, they would wait 3 hours later, at the time of the main advisory, to upgrade it.

[SeGaBob]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/10L/flash-rb-long.html

I am seeing whites in the storm right now...

[hurricanes1234]

What? So this hurricane could almost be a Category 2 now, based on dropsonde and other data? The only hurricane above Category 1 status this year so far was Henriette in the Pacific!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[CrazyC83]

What? So this hurricane could almost be a Category 2 now, based on dropsonde and other data? The only hurricane above Category 1 status this year so far was Henriette in the Pacific!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If all the data is put together, 80 kt looks to indeed be the intensity.

[Time_Zone]

really disagree with the upgrade. There has been no confirmation of the Dvorak estimates at all

we may be seeing a 24 hour peak in intensity now as the shear is increasing. However, in the final 12-24 hours before landfall, conditions should be quite favorable and we should see serious intensification

Disagree completely. It was 60 KTS and it obviously strengthened some since then. It was a justified upgrade imo.

As for a peak intensity for 24 hours...I find that unlikely as well as it seems to be firing off hot towers as I type this. Seems to be getting much, much stronger.

[hurricanes1234]

And what is the pressure looking like?

[Time_Zone]

I would say it supports an intensity of around 85-90 MPH.

[CrazyC83]

And what is the pressure looking like?

Not dropping too fast; appears to be about 982 right now.

[hurricanes1234]

Strange thing is that this looks more like 65 mph, not a Category 1 nearing Category 2 strength!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Time_Zone]

Strange thing is that this looks more like 65 mph, not a Category 1 nearing Category 2 strength!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Upon second look those might have been gusts not sustained.

[hurricanes1234]

Then if it's 90 mph gusts, then the intensity should be unchanged, since that was the gust at 4:00 PM CDT.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

Intermediate advisory shows 80 mph and 983 mbar from Reconnaissance aircraft.

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM... NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

[cycloneye]

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 94.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Upon second look those might have been gusts not sustained.

Dropsondes do contain gusts. I forget the rate it falls at, but it is taking momentary readings of wind as it goes down.

[Alyono]

80 mph seems about right for the initial intensity based upon dropsonde profile data

[HurricaneBill]

Hopefully this won't be like Hurricane Diana in 1990.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure indeed confirmed at about 983mb since the 986 in the AF VDM had nearly 30 kt of wind.