ECMWF MODEL

[tropicsPR]

Can someone explain the ECMWF MODEL and show the latest graph of it?

[wow]

ECMWF is going way south. This is the southern extreme solution compared with all of the other models.

http://cyclone.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen ... &cu=latest

[Lindaloo]

Is this the same model that was mentioned in the 11 advisory?

[wxman57]

First of all, you might visit the home of the ECMWF to learn more about it:

http://www.ecmwf.int/index.html

The acronym stands for the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The model is run only once a day, going out to 10 days in 12-hr intervals. It's based on data gathered at 12Z each day. These initialization data are closely scrutinized for many hours before the model is run. It is this scrutiny of the initialization data that help to make the ECMWF a more accurate model. Output of the model data is around 01Z - about 13 hours after the data are gathered.

You can find more about the ECMWF on the page above. Here's my favorite link to the data:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

Note that you won't find the full high-res ECMWF online, nor any forecasts out beyond 7 days (legally, anyway). The Europeans control this model and charge quite a bit of money to download it. They have strict rules about what can and can't be posted for free online. Mostly, you see just low-resolution data on web sites. I think we pay $3000-$5000/month for the full-resolution ECMWF out to 10 days.

[wxman57]

Is this the same model that was mentioned in the 11 advisory?

Yep!.....

THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...A MODEL VERY SKILLED AT FORECASTING LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF THE OTHERS IN BRINGING ISABEL NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS BY DAY 5.

[MWatkins]

It was mentioned in the 11PM...and seasoned mets use it for pattern recognition...tonight is the 4th run in a row that it has forecast a 591DM high to the north og Isabel and a south Florida landfall.

It is only run once a day...using the initial conditions at 12Z (8am). The forecast is usually out at or around 8PM EDT.

MW

[Stormcenter]

That has to mean something if it continues to show the high pressure ridge keeping Isabelle way south compared to the other models.