When will be our first major hurricane 2013?

[hurricanes1234]

If there is to be any major hurricane 2013, it's likely not going to be in the eastern or central Pacific, because of that exceedingly dry air over much of the basin. The Atlantic is becoming more active, with the first 2 hurricanes in a 4-day period. The major hurricane (supposing it does exist), will likely occur in the last day(s) of September, or in October. Depending on how activity goes through the rest of September, I would estimate the intensity of this major hurricane anywhere between 115 mph and 145 mph. It will likely be in the Caribbean Sea.

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[supercane4867]

Has there been a year with no major hurricane in both basins? I belive not

[hurricanes1234]

Has there been a year with no major hurricane in both basins? I belive not

No, not in my recollection, but I don't see why 2013 wouldn't be the first one.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[supercane4867]

LOL here we go 1968 the year of no majors

Strongest storm was a Cat 1




How similar to this year with the exception of only Henriette

[Hammy]

I am almost willing to bet that we will go the rest of the season passes without any major hurricanes. I don't wish destruction on anyone, but it would be nice to have a nice intense long-tracker out in open ocean. This has got to be one the weakest non-El Nino season in the Atlantic basin in the last half century.

[hurricanes1234]

Also the first time I've witnessed both basins below-average in the same year (ACE-wise). And yes, it's highly possible we could go without any major hurricanes this year.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ninel conde]

the one chance for a major now is the west carib or sw gom, but that is dependent on a strong high locking in over se canada.

[tolakram]

the one chance for a major now is the west carib or sw gom, but that is dependent on a strong high locking in over se canada.

So in your view a strong high is needed in order for a major just to form?

[Ptarmigan]

Has there been a year with no major hurricane in both basins? I belive not

Highly unlikely.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Though the chances of the Atlantic going without a major hurricane this season cannot completely be ruled out, it's extremely unlikely. Nearly every +AMO, non-El Niño year that featured little activity before September that I researched ended up with an extremely intense or deadly major hurricane in the western Caribbean. 1998 is a good example.

[ninel conde]

1998 had mitch, but it also had a cat3 and 2 cat 2's before now, and georges was at this moment on its way to be a cat4. the trof over nw africa has ended the CV season and again, the only way i can see a major developing would be for a huge high to lock in over se canada first and the pattern this season says that isnt likely.

['CaneFreak]

2013 is not 1998. You can't measure a season based on what another season did to this point and call that meteorology. You just can't. The pattern changes every year around this time as we move from season to season. No pattern locks in for an entire season.

1998 had mitch, but it also had a cat3 and 2 cat 2's before now, and georges was at this moment on its way to be a cat4. the trof over nw africa has ended the CV season and again, the only way i can see a major developing would be for a huge high to lock in over se canada first and the pattern this season says that isnt likely.

[ninel conde]

the one chance for a major now is the west carib or sw gom, but that is dependent on a strong high locking in over se canada.

So in your view a strong high is needed in order for a major just to form?

at this point in the season, yes. if this were a normal CV season then it might still be possible in the atlantic but that is a longer than long shot now. at this time the only possibility i see for a major would be the west carib, and that IS dependent on a strong high locking in.

[Cyclenall]

Has there been a year with no major hurricane in both basins? I belive not

Highly unlikely.

Guys, I already did the research and 1968 was the last time neither basin had a major hurricane. You can find my post detailing this completely here. Its true that 2013 has taken the modern record for this but when looking at 1968 in the Epac, its likely there wasn't a major despite the poor data so the best we can do is tie it.

[CrazyC83]

What I think is most remarkable: there hasn't even been a storm that reliable models (i.e. not HWRF) had tried to form an strong hurricane out of at the mid-term or nearer levels...

[hurricanes1234]

What I think is most remarkable: there hasn't even been a storm that reliable models (i.e. not HWRF) had tried to form an strong hurricane out of at the mid-term or nearer levels...

Exactly, all of them have been dropped and reduced before formation, (prime examples: Juliette 2013, Humberto 2013 just prior to redevelopment).

[Hurricaneman]

How about none in 2013 now that would be a hoot, but I think October will bring our 1 and only Major and I think the Florida Peninsula would be the recipient as I think it will form in the Caribbean

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[TheStormExpert]

How about none in 2013 now that would be a hoot, but I think October will bring our 1 and only Major and I think the Florida Peninsula would be the recipient as I think it will form in the Caribbean

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I know it only takes one, but this season has been threatening at all by any means IMO. I have a gut feeling it may remain that way through the rest of the season.

I hope next year is an El Nino so none of us on here or anywhere expect an active season to only have it be the total opposite again. Aren't we overdue for an El Nino anyways?

[CrazyC83]

Looking at how storms died is probably the best indicator on how bad this year has been:

Andrea - Became extratropical over cooler water

Barry - Landfall

Chantal - Dissipated over tropical water

Dorian - Dissipated over tropical water (twice!)

Erin - Dissipated over tropical water

Fernand - Landfall

Gabrielle - Dissipated over tropical water (first time), absorbed by front (second time)

Humberto - Dissipated over tropical water (first time), dissipated over moderately warm water (second time)

Ingrid - Landfall

In a good season, few if any storms should be dissipating into remnant lows - they should be becoming extratropical over cooler waters, being absorbed into other systems or making landfall.

[hurricanes1234]

Humberto is the most stunning one in my opinion. One model forecasted a secondary peak of 115 mph, and just like all the forecasted 'major hurricanes' this year, not one made it to hurricane strength. What did Humberto peak as the second time? An asymmetrical and minimal tropical storm with 45 mph sustained winds. What I will do now is when a major hurricane is forecast by models, I will only expect it to attain 111+ mph winds when it reaches at least 100 mph, and still has time to strengthen. Other than that, I wouldn't believe it until it is literally imminent.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.