ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

This is going to be a big mess for the models to decipher for the next few days IMO. Likely to see everything under the sun as far as movements and intensities.

[cycloneye]

New Orleans afternoon AFD long term:

National Weather Service New Orleans la
401 PM CDT Tuesday Sep 17 2013


Long term...
weak upper level ridge is currently building across the Gulf Coast.
Abundant moisture remains in place just south of the area across the
entire Gulf of Mexico. The southern edge of the high will continue
to be fairly weak which will allow for more of this moisture to move
into the County Warning Area beginning tomorrow. Expecting probability of precipitation to progressively
increase each day this week with chance probability of precipitation through middle week and
higher after that.

A tropical wave tracking westward across the Yucatan will enter the
Bay of Campeche after middle week. At the same time...an upper trough
will be swinging across northern sections of the country. Moisture
from the tropical feature will get drawn northward towards the
approaching frontal boundary. It appears that this will bring rain
chances up even more by the beginning of the weekend. So have
made somewhat substantial changes to the Middle Range forecast.
Decided to bring probability of precipitation up into the 50 to 70 percent chance range
Friday and Saturday and may need to be even higher than that.
Locally heavy rain will be possible as model soundings indicate
precipitation water values of near 2.5 inches. Models have also starting
hinting at some form of cyclogenesis along the frontal boundary as
it reaches the coast. Its unclear at this time what will form or
what form of tropical characteristics it will have if anything does
form at all. For now just something to keep an eye on as currently
still close to the peak of hurricane season. On the subject of
temperatures...have dropped forecast highs by no less than a few
degrees Friday and especially Saturday. Expecting overcast
conditions and quite a bit of rain coverage which means
temperatures should not be reaching more than middle 80s...if that.

More uncertainty exists on when the bulk of rain will be pushed out
by the cold front. Both European model (ecmwf) and GFS agreed that things would be
clearing out Saturday night. Previous runs were much different with
the Euro at least a full 24 hours slower than the GFS. Now...most
recent runs are back to only scattered convection still left on
Sunday. This flip/flopping def brings confidence down on the
extended forecast so have not made any chances to previous.

Meffer
&&

[Sanibel]

This looks like it might have something to it. If it turns it could tap the loop current.

[alienstorm]

Is it me or do I see Invest 95 off shore of Belize moving slowly NW is this the case than the system is more likely to emerge off the NE tip of the Yucatan and a little further north. Which would bring into play a NE turn toward Central West Florida. There is definitely an organized low down there and it is looking more impressive on satellite with some banding features.

[MGC]

MCL is spinning like a top....slow mover for sure the next few days. Might be a classic case of a TC cut off in the BOC and then drawn north by an approaching trough......hurricane Opal comes to mind.....MGC

[TJRE]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

steering pattern 700mb thru 300mb------http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
latest goes 13-------http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/
TAFB 72 hr cast-----http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/

[cycloneye]

It has an impressive structure.

[Stormcenter]

I believe 95L is serious about developing into something more than an invest. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html

[TJRE]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/

Dry Slot in the B.O.C- atm-


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TPW --very nice feed into 95L
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/main.html



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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

It has an impressive structure.

http://oi39.tinypic.com/15daww5.jpg

Yeah, Luis. If it holds that structure overnight and keeps it coming offshore tomorrow it will have a very good chance at deepening.

[ROCK]

I believe 95L is serious about developing into something more than an invest. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/95L/flash-vis-long.html

I would agree....once it gets off land...water temp doesnt seem to be an issue

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

[chaser1]

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/

Dry Slot in the B.O.C- atm-


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Yeah, I had noticed that dry slot too. Funny, at first glance I thought what a minute....I dont think I remember seeing a southward diving cutoff low this a.m. Now, "that" would be a game changer LOL. Reality though is that this must be upper level only. Still though, would seem to maybe be indicative of a dryer slot of air that might well cut off and at least further aid upper difluence.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 60% - 70%

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR CHETUMAL MEXICO IS ACCOMPANIED
BY CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER THE LOW MOVES
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER
EASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY THE TORRENTIAL RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID AND MANUEL.

[northjaxpro]

This system is well on its way of becoming Jerry. I concur with others by analyzing how great the structure is with 95L right now. Very interesting days ahead following this developing tropical cyclone. This entity may have a potential to meander around the BOC/SW GOM for a cuple days before the trough inserts its influence on the system by the latter part of this week.

[SFLcane]

This looks like the real deal...fantastic structure indeed.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

This thing is getting "the look" pretty fast... Nice structure

[chaser1]

Looks like a nice banding feature on its north side starting to take shape. Heck, if this were planted right at 15N & 55W in nearly any other September, we'd be calling for NHC to tag this a depression right about now.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

Moving 320 degrees at 4kts.


AL, 95, 2013091800, 01, CARQ, 0, 188N, 886W, 25, 1004, LO, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 320, 4, INVEST, M ,

LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 88.6W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 4KT

[HurricaneTracker2031]

My Forecast for 95L and Humberto: http://goo.gl/UX1S9J

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chaser1]

Wow...I can see it now, "...the depression continues to intensify over the Yucatan Penninsula and is now moving towards the NW at 10mph..." Well, got to admit, 95L is doing everything it can to try and make it look like it might want to visit the 'ol U.S of A. Granted the speed is very slow yet, but wonder what the contributing factor to its more NW motion? I wonder if that north/south trough which appears as that dry slot, might be any factor???