ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[boca]

The FIM track seems so odd. Why would it move due East and then due North? How often do storms move due East?

They don't most storms move NE but I recall Lenny In 1999 moving due East.

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS times well with the EURO....right on the MX coast at 60hrs...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091800/gfs_mslp_wind_watl_21.png

72hrs....not much to look at...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091800/gfs_mslp_wind_watl_25.png

[Macrocane]

Euro 12z run was interesting as it hasn't been too keen on cyclogenesis this year.
Another interesting thing is he FIM agreeing (more or less) with the Euro in time frame and location.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS back to the 3 frontal lows in the GOM again.....

at 99hrs....fail...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091800/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_32.png

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The FIM track seems so odd. Why would it move due East and then due North? How often do storms move due East?

More than odd, how about pretty ridiculous. We are going to see all kinds of crazy runs until this actually develops, if it does, in the gulf. Still betting it ends up in mexico and that will be the end of that. Or second guess will be a sheared strung out mess like that last invest was.

[ROCK]

The FIM track seems so odd. Why would it move due East and then due North? How often do storms move due East?

More than odd, how about pretty ridiculous. We are going to see all kinds of crazy runs until this actually develops, if it does, in the gulf. Still betting it ends up in mexico and that will be the end of that. Or second guess will be a sheared strung out mess like that last invest was.

is that your prediction? MX or strung out mess.....want to get you on record...

[Stormcenter]

I said it last night and I'll stick with it, I just don't see this moving into Mexico but I've been wrong many times before so it wouldn't be the first ime.

The FIM track seems so odd. Why would it move due East and then due North? How often do storms move due East?

More than odd, how about pretty ridiculous. We are going to see all kinds of crazy runs until this actually develops, if it does, in the gulf. Still betting it ends up in mexico and that will be the end of that. Or second guess will be a sheared strung out mess like that last invest was.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The FIM track seems so odd. Why would it move due East and then due North? How often do storms move due East?

More than odd, how about pretty ridiculous. We are going to see all kinds of crazy runs until this actually develops, if it does, in the gulf. Still betting it ends up in mexico and that will be the end of that. Or second guess will be a sheared strung out mess like that last invest was.

is that your prediction? MX or strung out mess.....want to get you on record...

50/50 this season has me gun shy.

[chaser1]

both FIM8 and FIM9 think this hangs out over the BOC for some time before moving up destroying NO....so now you have 4 models showing something similiar right now. Sure it will change....

http://fim.noaa.gov/


hey Chaser1----not sure but the GOM is fueled and ready for take off if the upper levels let it....

Commence liftoff preparations! We might just see our seasons' one "major" yet?!

[chaser1]

:uarrow: close enough that I cant tell... moving north like that it would be drawing all kinds of dry air into it. Intensity might not be an issue...

I remember Isadora back in 2002 came in as a relatively dry but large TS from about the same angle.. put a good 8-9 foot storm surge in Biloxi, she had a pretty large and expanding wind field as I recall when she came in.. winds were at most 60 mph at my house... with hardly no rain I just sat in a lawn chair in my front yard and watch the surge destroy the Coliseum pier and deposit it in front of my house near the seawall...

Hey Frank...how friggin' surreal that must have been!!!

[ROCK]

0Z NAVGEM following the GFS and EURO up to the 84hr spot....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/navgem/2013091800/navgem_mslp_wind_watl_15.png


at 120 to 138 sitting under LA....missed the trof

[HURAKAN]

since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models

[ROCK]

yeah they are very weak looking at the 500mb heights....this thing is drifting around even at 180hrs on the NAVGEM sitting in the same spot since 120hr.....under LA....

[Wx_Warrior]

cmc 0z out yet?

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, none of the major models do much with this. Even 00z GGEM keeps it weak into east TX then NNE into the front.

[Blown Away]

Love this run, goes west, bounces of Mexican coast, shoots back east, and nearly becomes a major hurricane... That's the HWRF I like, where has he been all season...

[Frank P]

:uarrow: close enough that I cant tell... moving north like that it would be drawing all kinds of dry air into it. Intensity might not be an issue...

I remember Isadora back in 2002 came in as a relatively dry but large TS from about the same angle.. put a good 8-9 foot storm surge in Biloxi, she had a pretty large and expanding wind field as I recall when she came in.. winds were at most 60 mph at my house... with hardly no rain I just sat in a lawn chair in my front yard and watch the surge destroy the Coliseum pier and deposit it in front of my house near the seawall...

Hey Frank...how friggin' surreal that must have been!!!

It was pretty cool Chaser1... one of my good storm memories.... pier caught hell though... would love to see us get though the season with no majors in the GOM... this system looks pretty impressive atm.... certainly will be something that will get every ones attention real soon... the recent FIM model was interesting but pretty impractical... thanks to Rock for posting the link...

[Dean4Storms]

FIM8 00z run.....Gets it to the NW Gulf then evidently the shear tears it apart and sends the remains eastward.


http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=fim_jet:&runTime=2013091800&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=244

[stormlover2013]

yeah we need to wait till it develops so models can get a grasp on it, this is going to be fun because models usually struggle on how strong the fronts are so the next couple of days will be interesting.

[gatorcane]

The 00Z Euro model takes the area into the BOC then sharply turns it ENE towards the West Coast of Florida and so does the HWRF (though the HWRF has a hurricane which is not believable as it never seems right). The GFS leaves something behind in the BOC but takes some energy from 95L and merges it with a cold front in the Northern GOM taking it east.. Clearly a lot of disagreement with the models as they are all over the place with this system.