ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

[Blown Away]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
06z HWRF, 100 mph hurricane into Big Bend area...

[gatorcane]

00Z Euro shows the area heading towards Florida at 192 hours but not strong. The front gets it:

[Blown Away]

12z...

[cycloneye]

[hurricaneCW]

Where does that storm come from off the east coast on the euro? On the gfs it looks like a low develops on the southern portion of the trough with moisture from 95L but it doesn't look like it's related to 95L.

[HURAKAN]

since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models

[Blown Away]

00Z Euro shows the area heading towards Florida at 192 hours but not strong. The front gets it:

I think the run finishes going over Lake Okeechobee and out to sea...

[ROCK]

06Z GFDL - does nothing with it
0Z CMC- weak- TX
EURO- weak strung out caught in the trop- FL
06 GFS- strung out multiple lows along the front-
06Z NAVGEM- weak into FL

well the good thing is it doesnt look like its going to turn major on anyone. Well thats what the guidance is saying right now anyway.... I exclude the HWRF since it is jacked on intensity since it was turned on.

[blp]

since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models

I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.

Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before

Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Didn't yesterday's euro runs show this a more developed storm and hit south LA?

This looks like its shaping up to be gulf invest from august part 2. Think it got up to 70/80% crossing the yucatan and front came down and strung it out.

Rock think I will go on record with 80/20 strung out mess vs organized tropical storm.

[Stormcenter]

Great post, thanks for putting that together.

since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models

I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.

Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before

Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.

[Blown Away]

since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models

I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.

Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before

Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.

If you include Oct tracks, there are a few that move E or ENE across the GOM...IMO, it seems like an Oct pattern already...Graphic below is Sept/Oct tracks:

[stormlover2013]

Ukmet-TExas

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/UKTROPATL_0z/ukloop.html

[xcool22]

ukmet 12z take to new Orleans

[Portastorm]

ukmet 12z take to new Orleans

Actually it is the 0z UKMet which takes 95L into southeastern Lousiana, skirting it really, and into the northeastern Gulf Coast. System moving west-southwest to east-northeast. 12z Ukie isn't out yet.

[caneman]

since the steering currents are going to be week, I expect a windshield wiper effect over the next couple of days with the computer models

I agree this is going to flip many times. With that said, I ran a plot of the possible scenarios for a system that develops in the BOC in September going back till record keeping began and here is what I found.

Scenarios (Order of most likely)
1) Mexico landfall
2) Louisana landfall
3) North Florida
4) Texas.
5) Central to Southern Florida Never happened before

Goes to show that what some models are showing such as the latest Euro is not likely to happen and would be historic.

If you include Oct tracks, there are a few that move E or ENE across the GOM...IMO, it seems like an Oct pattern already...Graphic below is Sept/Oct tracks:

Agreed Blown Away on October pattern possibly more likely. Not real sure about the map provided but I remember Gabrielle well coming off the tip of the Yucatan and hitting us around the same time as 9/11 from 2001. The last Major to hit the Tampa area was from that very same area. Not saying it will be a major but anything coming from South and West of us always gets my attention.

[xcool22]

ok thanks

[ROCK]

12Z intensity forecasts have also dropped off....only few make it up to cat 1 now.

[ROCK]

12Z NAM....84hrs

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam/2013091812/nam_reflectivity_watl_27.png

[blp]

Agreed Blown Away on October pattern possibly more likely. Not real sure about the map provided but I remember Gabrielle well coming off the tip of the Yucatan and hitting us around the same time as 9/11 from 2001. The last Major to hit the Tampa area was from that very same area. Not saying it will be a major but anything coming from South and West of us always gets my attention.

The 1921 major hurricane that hit Tampa orginated in the W. Carribean and was from 20-30 OCT. Gabrielle in 2001 formed in the Eastern Gulf just off the West coast of Florida. Yes if you include October then the probabilities increase. I not saying it could not happen since we have seen stranger things before, it's just that it would be a historic first with regards to the climatological record.