WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

[Typhoon Hunter]

Hi James,are you planning to chase Usagi in Taiwan?

Hi Luis, too early to tell right now, models are swinging around a bit but threat of direct landfall on S Taiwan looks to have diminished somewhat. GFS and ECMWF hinting at a potential threat to HK so I'd want to be here if anything rolled this way (after the Vicente incident last year!!)

The latest ECMWF has especially got my attention, 96 hours out:



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[vrif]

Both ECMWF and NCEP ensembles are slowly moving more west along GZ coast with each model run. Perhaps it will follow a track between Hagupit (2008) and Molave (2009)?

[RL3AO]

Waiting for new microwave, but it looks like its really taking off today. Could be an interesting night.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Does that look like a eye forming?

[cycloneye]

Hi James,are you planning to chase Usagi in Taiwan?

Hi Luis, too early to tell right now, models are swinging around a bit but threat of direct landfall on S Taiwan looks to have diminished somewhat. GFS and ECMWF hinting at a potential threat to HK so I'd want to be here if anything rolled this way (after the Vicente incident last year!!)

The latest ECMWF has especially got my attention, 96 hours out:

http://img593.imageshack.us/img593/7568/aisp.png

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Yes, I think is better for you to stay in HK now as track goes away from Taiwan. HK is well in landfall probability and with that ECMWF run yikes!

[RL3AO]

F. T4.0/4.0/D2.0/24HRS

Very impressive. Deepened two T#s in 24 hours (although I personally think it was a 2.5 yesterday).

Its trying to close off an eye. Looks better and better on satellite. I think a 100kt typhoon this time tomorrow is not out of the question.

EDIT: Oh wow.



Maybe 100 knots is likely this time tomorrow. Something stronger may not be out of the question to be honest.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA and JTWC products.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 985.0mb/ 59.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 4.2 5.6

rapid strengthening occuring...

this looks like a solid category 2 typhoon right now...

[RL3AO]

Not very often you see a raw T that much different than the final T. I think we could be witnessing quite a 24 hour period starting about four hours ago.

I'm seeing a T4.0 both with curved banding technique and the eye technique.

If I had to make a guess

T+0: 65kt
T+12: 80kt
T+24: 105kt


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 976.0mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 5.8

[RL3AO]

Very fascinating storm on satellite. Continues to look better with each new image.

[HURAKAN]

beautiful storm

[SouthDadeFish]

The internal structure is there. Once the eye clears out, Dvorak numbers will skyrocket.

[RL3AO]

This is one of the most interesting looking IR storms I've seen in a while.

[mrbagyo]

ahhh. I bet we'll have a major typhoon by tomorrow. ... this is such a beautiful typhoon.
the eye is clearing up and I expect Usagi to reach its peak before it enters the channel between Taiwan and Luzon Island..



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JMA products.

[euro6208]

too bad we don't have recon anymore...looks like another severely underestimated storm with dvorak and weather agencies catching up...

[Extratropical94]

Latest SSD advanced Dvorak estimate:
2013SEP18 130100 4.6 970.6 79.6 4.6 5.7 6.5 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -20.69 -76.00 EYE 13 IR N/A 17.47 -129.29 COMBO MTSAT2 27.3

Current satellite estimate: 80 knots 1-min
Raw T-number: 127 knots 1-min

[RL3AO]

Those warmer clouds inside the main band are keeping the numbers down. However, the constraints are there for a reason. This was a legitimate T3.5 six hours ago. As good as it looks, this is not a category 3/4 storm right now. Maybe its 80 to 85 knots? Will it be 100 knots in 12 hours? I see no reason for it not to be.

However, because of those warmer clouds around the eye, I think ADT will be a better estimator for the next few hours.

[Extratropical94]

Those warmer clouds inside the main band are keeping the numbers down. However, the constraints are there for a reason. This was a legitimate T3.5 six hours ago. As good as it looks, this is not a category 3/4 storm right now. Maybe its 80 to 85 knots? Will it be 100 knots in 12 hours? I see no reason for it not to be.

However, because of those warmer clouds around the eye, I think ADT will be a better estimator for the next few hours.

That's why it's good that the CI index doesn't immediately catch up to those high raw T-numbers. The structural improvements need a few hours to actually lead to a significant increase in wind speeds but this thing is definitely becoming a real threat to Luzon and Taiwan as it might end up stronger than forecasted.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

1500Z JTWC forecast

[Typhoon Hunter]

I couldn't help myself

Ingrid on the left at 75kts, Usagi on the right 65kts



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