ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[sfwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

SUN-TUES...A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING.
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS WEEKEND AND CUTS OFF FROM THE JET STREAM
FLOW OVER AL. THIS WILL PULL DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND BRING A THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COLD UPPER LOW SHOULD INDUCE
A BAROCLINIC SFC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WHICH LIFTS
NORTHEAST TO NEAR CAPE HATTERAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY AND PUSHES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE...HURRICANE CENTER GIVE HIGH PROBABILITIES THAT A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED ONCE IT PUSHES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. NHC/WPC KEEP LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF OF
MEXICO INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK. AND BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LEFT BEHIND ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MID WEEK
AS WELL.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THESE FEATURES DEVELOP...IT APPEARS WE ARE
HEADED TOWARD A WET AND CLOUDY PERIOD THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.


SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....KELLY

[wzrgirl1]

Well according to the last discussion it looks as if 95L is almost a sure bet of forming in the next 5 days. The questions remain as to how strong it should get and where it will head. This should be an interesting week ahead for everyone on the gulf coast and especially to us weather enthusiasts.

[RL3AO]

Off topic: I'd invite the 100 or so people in this forum to come check out Tropical Storm Usagi in the West Pacific forum, which appears that it may be starting to rapidly intensify.

[Dean4Storms]

I have a hard time not believing that 95L does not get picked up by this trough, there might be another area of low pressure to form at the tail end of this trough coming over the Gulf next week but anything TC in nature before hand ought to get caught up in the flow ahead of it IMO.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013091812, , BEST, 0, 197N, 903W, 25, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

[Dean4Storms]

12z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013091812, , BEST, 0, 197N, 903W, 25, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Should be over water soon.

[NDG]

12z Best Track.

AL, 95, 2013091812, , BEST, 0, 197N, 903W, 25, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1008, 180, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M

Should be over water soon.

If the 12z best track is where the surface COC is, this system is decoupled with the mid level vorticity left behind in the middle if the Y.P., it may not organize as quickly as some if you might think.

[HurrMark]

I see nothing at that point. My guess of any low level spin is roughly 19.6/89.1...a good 100 miles to the east

[CourierPR]

I see nothing at that point. My guess of any low level spin is roughly 19.6/89.1...a good 100 miles to the east

I agree and wonder if we might see a "center" develop back over the Caribbean.

[tropicwatch]

Definitely doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.

[Stormcenter]

Lots and lots of serious convection out there. It looks like a possible center is still over land IMO.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

[wxman57]

I'm thinking it becomes Jerry tomorrow and tracks toward a point NE of Tampico Friday night then stalls as a cold front moves off the TX coast. As the dry air flows southward along the coast of NE Mexico on Saturday, the storm should drift to the south for a while and weaken. By Monday, I think it'll be picked up and taken northeast along or merged with the front. It would be at most a sheared TS at that time. Might just be part of the cold front.

[NDG]

Definitely doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.

]http://tropicwatch.info/vis_lalo-animated.gif]

Definitely 95L is decoupled, don't expect much out of this today because the surface COC of circulation is right underneath the UL trough axis.

[tropicwatch]

Like most systems this year they have had to deal with wind shear, 95L is no exception.

[Aric Dunn]

well it looks like its going to come off the NW tip .. quite a bit farther north than I saw most of the models. that should change the recurve scenario split...

[tolakram]

well it looks like its going to come off the NW tip .. quite a bit farther north than I saw most of the models. that should change the recurve scenario split...

The GFS vorticity plot sort of describes this. Pops off on the NW side, then meanders literally all over the BOC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013091806&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Like most systems this year they have had to deal with wind shear, 95L is no exception.

http://tropicwatch.info/wg8shr.gif

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

[Aric Dunn]

well it looks like its going to come off the NW tip .. quite a bit farther north than I saw most of the models. that should change the recurve scenario split...

The GFS vorticity plot sort of describes this. Pops off on the NW side, then meanders literally all over the BOC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013091806&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

yeah the firs part seem right being that its doing that now... I think the gfs is having a bias with the frontal interaction and strength of the front. the rest of that is not likely.. but hey its the tropics lol

[tropicwatch]

The GFS vorticity plot sort of describes this. Pops off on the NW side, then meanders literally all over the BOC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013091806&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

yeah the firs part seem right being that its doing that now... I think the gfs is having a bias with the frontal interaction and strength of the front. the rest of that is not likely.. but hey its the tropics lol[/quote]

I agree, this time of year fronts come through more frequently and I don't see a system being able to hang around that long either.

[Extratropical94]

Like most systems this year they have had to deal with wind shear, 95L is no exception.

http://tropicwatch.info/wg8shr.gif

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

Conducive for TD formation doesn't automatically mean favorable for further development. The NHC is on the safe side with that statement because they can basically upgrade anything to a TD, but they do not say yet if they expect it to strengthen further. Kind of a back door for them if things go different.

OT: Congratulations to Category 5 status.