ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

Frank2 · #301 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:24 am

Probably time for that Star Trek joke quote - it's toasty looking this morning and my guess is that the flight for today will be cancelled...

ROCK · #302 Postby **ROCK** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:35 am

percentages should go down now...not looking healthy at all. Dry air and some shear limiting convection. D-MAX was a dud.

#303 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:40 am

boy, as soon as the models hint at a lack of serious development, all discussion just dropped! we're so deperate to track systems, but so "over it" regarding the 2013 season, aren't we? :lol:

I have to apologize to everyone...it is my fault the season has been so lackluster. I won't say I seriously prayed, but I definitely sent out serious vibes to the universe hoping that there wouldn't be any serious tropical developments this year to affect us. We're still trying to get the new house and property in order and laid out way too much $$ already towards repairs and upgrades. Teh biggest concern was that the roof could make it through until the dry season too so that we could address its upgrade in the spring without any leaks to contend with.
Then again...the insurance deduction is just $2k for wind storms, and that is likely a lot less than a full roof replacement cost undertaken on our own. I should actually pray for a big storm out of this that does some damage to the roof , requiring a good fix or roof replacement! -and that it happens preceeding a long stretch of very dry weather!!

ooh, ooh, can I change my mind? (I'm a woman, it is my perogative after all!!)

Please oh Please Hurricane Gods...let this upcoming rain storm be enough to cause some good roof issues that need lots of all over repairs, without causing any serious indoor water damage or mold issues to also conted with!
...
I'm already ammeding that request to add:

Well, let it cause enough leaking to also enable a full removal and replacement of the old attic installation to be covered too, but not enough water to mess up the ceilings at all! -picky aren't I? hahahaha

Hopefully that added a little levity to the discussion? :wink:

#304 Postby **dizzyfish** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:53 am

Careful what you wish for Gal! If you are stuck with Citizens (as we are) they only cover inside damage - no roof coverage. Nice huh? We got that bit of info after last summer's monsoon.

Could stand a little rain before the dry season here - but not what a storm would bring. :-)

p.s. Congrats on the new house!

#305 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:01 am

Definitely not a TD now, though there is an LLC. Perhaps by later this afternoon or tonight. While I'm completely unimpressed by its current appearance, I still think it'll make it to Jerry tomorrow or Saturday morning before it is killed by the approaching front.

Sanibel · #306 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:25 am

Too soon after Ingrid in too much shear I guess.

ConvergenceZone · #307 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:31 am

wxman57 wrote:Definitely not a TD now, though there is an LLC. Perhaps by later this afternoon or tonight. While I'm completely unimpressed by its current appearance, I still think it'll make it to Jerry tomorrow or Saturday morning before it is killed by the approaching front.

This has been a frustrating tropical season.....Put 2013 in the books. I can't wait for 2014.......2013 was an anomaly.......
Next year should be back to normal and tropics watching can resume again....

ronjon · #308 Postby **ronjon** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 9:44 am

Well the models really started backing off development yesterday - think only the crazy canadian develops anything of it now. Something about the tropical atmosphere thats keeping a lid on things this year. The long range GFS does show another western caribbean system in week 2 but I'm sure that phantom stuff right now. Oh well, next?

#309 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:20 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely not a TD now, though there is an LLC. Perhaps by later this afternoon or tonight. While I'm completely unimpressed by its current appearance, I still think it'll make it to Jerry tomorrow or Saturday morning before it is killed by the approaching front.

This has been a frustrating tropical season.....Put 2013 in the books. I can't wait for 2014.......2013 was an anomaly.......
Next year should be back to normal and tropics watching can resume again....

Unless El Nino surges in a big way to shut down 14.

ConvergenceZone · #310 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:22 am

cycloneye wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely not a TD now, though there is an LLC. Perhaps by later this afternoon or tonight. While I'm completely unimpressed by its current appearance, I still think it'll make it to Jerry tomorrow or Saturday morning before it is killed by the approaching front.

This has been a frustrating tropical season.....Put 2013 in the books. I can't wait for 2014.......2013 was an anomaly.......
Next year should be back to normal and tropics watching can resume again....

Unless El Nino surges in a big way to shut down 14.

In my opinion, it's extremely unlikely that we will have 2 Dud years back to back.

galaxy401 · #311 Postby **galaxy401** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:23 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
ConvergenceZone wrote:
This has been a frustrating tropical season.....Put 2013 in the books. I can't wait for 2014.......2013 was an anomaly.......
Next year should be back to normal and tropics watching can resume again....

Unless El Nino surges in a big way to shut down 14.

In my opinion, it's extremely unlikely that we will have 2 Dud years back to back.

I thought I read somewhere that we need an El Nino occasionally to moisten up the atmosphere.

#312 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:27 am

Not a surprise the cancellation of Recon for today.

ORIGINAL INVEST MISSION TASKED FROM TCPOD 13-109 WAS CANX
BY NHC AT 19/1400Z.

'CaneFreak · #313 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:02 am

You can clearly see the naked swirl on visible satellite moving northwest...no convection associated with it and convection on the south side of it is moving westward instead of eastward...NOT a good sign if you are looking for a developing TC. NHC needs to lower the probabilities as I said yesterday or the day before. Dry air mass down there in the mid-levels and shear operating in between layers. Will likely be onshore in eastern Mexico in 24-36 hours.

alienstorm · #314 Postby **alienstorm** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:03 am

ronjon wrote:Well the models really started backing off development yesterday - think only the crazy canadian develops anything of it now. Something about the tropical atmosphere thats keeping a lid on things this year. The long range GFS does show another western caribbean system in week 2 but I'm sure that phantom stuff right now. Oh well, next?

I still think that October will produce a Hurricane in the Western Caribbean and there is so much untapped warm water that it wouldn't surprise me to see a major storm before all is said and done.

tropicwatch · #315 Postby **tropicwatch** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:09 am

The year of the shear :double:

CourierPR · #316 Postby **CourierPR** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:19 am

Panamatropicwatch, I'm more inclined to describe this year as the year of dry air. That being said, I think we may see a low form on the front moving down in a few days and that the energy from 95L would be the catalyst.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#317 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:19 am

Good thing I only said development chances today were 99.99999%, as it looks like it's going to be the 0.00001% that wins out. No development today.

TeamPlayersBlue · #318 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:26 am

That shear looks intense.

#319 Postby **Rail Dawg** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:36 am

It's still going to go TS within two days. A lot of surface fuel and that shear won't last long.

#320 Postby **Bailey1777** » Thu Sep 19, 2013 11:47 am

what is the process for forecasting future shear? it seems to be inaccurate quite often.

ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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