WTPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201200Z --- NEAR 20.1N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 20.8N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 21.4N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 21.9N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 22.2N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 22.0N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 21.3N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.4N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
201500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 123.2E.
SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 48 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z.//
NNNN
WDPN32 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR
16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. DESPITE MAINTAINING A 15-NM EYE,
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STY 17W HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT DECAY
OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 200951Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) OCCURRING
WITH AN ERODING INNER EYEWALL AND CONCENTRIC OUTER EYEWALL. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
RADIAL OUTFLOW. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
BASED ON THE EYE IN IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES OF 127 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. STY 17W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
CHINA INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE 20/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE A STRONG, EAST-WEST ORIENTED STR ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHEAST ASIA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B.
STY 17W IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12 AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EAST-
WEST ORIENTED STR. THE STR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS
TRACK SPEED THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. STY 17W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN INITIALLY DUE TO THE ERC BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 12 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
TAIWAN. THE SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. STY
17W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG BY TAU 54. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUPPORTED BY THE STIPS GUIDANCE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC EXTENDED
FORECAST TRACK. STY 17W SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS OVER
SOUTHERN CHINA AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 120.//
NNNN
But I know the situation farther north of Luzon is turning bad.
