WPAC: USAGI - Typhoon

[RL3AO]

Still looks like a T5.5/100kt

[dexterlabio]

Yeah the eye is more visible right now compared several hours ago. Looks like the inner eyewall won against the outer.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RESURGENCE
IN THE EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF CHINA. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS FROM THE 211800Z FORECAST WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA, TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TY 17W. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTHS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A
RAPID WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS DISRUPTED BY MAINLAND CHINA.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[supercane4867]

Any strengthening occured should be minor and I don't expect much change in intensity from this point through landfall
Clearly visible concentric eyewall structure, it still under an eyewall replacement

['CaneFreak]

If it stays on a west-northwest track, it will miss Hong Kong by 80-100 miles! DOH?!

TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG KONG

WDPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 17W (USAGI) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG
KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RESURGENCE
IN THE EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST THREE TO SIX HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO APPROACH THE COAST OF CHINA. THE INTENSITY HAS
BEEN MAINTAINED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE
FIRST FEW HOURS FROM THE 211800Z FORECAST WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
SUPPORTING THE INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE POINT-
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE HAS SHIFTED OVER TOWARDS COASTAL CHINA, TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS CREATING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TY 17W. THIS INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAMPER THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING THE STRONG TYPHOON STRENGTHS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 17W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HONG KONG, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND INCREASING LAND
INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL WITH A
RAPID WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS DISRUPTED BY MAINLAND CHINA.
NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

triple concentric eyewall

[supercane4867]

An oil platform about 150km offshore currently reporting 979mb with 10-min sustained wind of 56kt

[euro6208]

TXPQ27 KNES 220314
TCSWNP

A. 17W (USAGI)

B. 22/0232Z

C. 22.1N

D. 117.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...0045Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. MG EYE IS
EMBEDDED IN B FOR A ENO OF 5.5. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY A COLD RING OF W
RESULTS IN NO EYE ADJUSTMENT MAKING THE DT A 5.5. PT IS 5.5 AND MET IS
5.5 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/2101Z 21.5N 118.3E SSMIS
21/2210Z 21.6N 118.1E SSMIS
22/0045Z 21.8N 117.8E SSMIS


...TURK

[Annie Oakley]

remove

['CaneFreak]

Yeah...definitely not strengthening...maintaining strength but tightening the core would be a good way of putting it I think...

TXPQ27 KNES 220314
TCSWNP

A. 17W (USAGI)

B. 22/0232Z

C. 22.1N

D. 117.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T5.5/5.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...0045Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS. MG EYE IS
EMBEDDED IN B FOR A ENO OF 5.5. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY A COLD RING OF W
RESULTS IN NO EYE ADJUSTMENT MAKING THE DT A 5.5. PT IS 5.5 AND MET IS
5.5 BASED ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

21/2101Z 21.5N 118.3E SSMIS
21/2210Z 21.6N 118.1E SSMIS
22/0045Z 21.8N 117.8E SSMIS


...TURK

[supercane4867]

If it stays on a west-northwest track, it will miss Hong Kong by 80-100 miles! DOH?!

TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG KONG

The new forecast track has already shifted to the east and Usagi is still heading north of it

[brunota2003]

My PERSONAL guess for a landfall point was 22.8N and 115.4W (roughly). I'm not sure what that spit of land is, other than it is a peninsula.

[mrbagyo]

Typhoon Usagi continues to enhance the southwest monsoon, bringing a lot of rain here in southern Luzon...
I'm in the orange area... non-stop rain here since dawn!!

[Annie Oakley]

I don't see any orange area in your post.

[euro6208]

I don't see any orange area in your post.

or maybe yellowish orange he meant?

[brunota2003]

I don't see any orange area in your post.

It's north of the P in Philippines. Light blue over the P, dark blue north of that, then water and the next island has a dot of orange on it.

['CaneFreak]

Look harder...it's there...northern Philippines, southern Luzon

I don't see any orange area in your post.

[euro6208]

If it stays on a west-northwest track, it will miss Hong Kong by 80-100 miles! DOH?!

TYPHOON 17W (USAGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 208 NM EAST OF HONG KONG

The new forecast track has already shifted to the east and Usagi is still heading north of it

wow so with each warning, landfall keeps going further north...maybe good news for hong kong...

['CaneFreak]

WOW...did you figure that out all by yourself? Everyone give him a round of applause

Sorry, I had to do it...you left yourself wide open...

Lord, I apologize for that there and be with the pigmes in New Guinea. Amen.

wow so with each warning, landfall keeps going further north...maybe good news for hong kong...

[Annie Oakley]

I don't see any orange area in your post.

It's north of the P in Philippines. Light blue over the P, dark blue north of that, then water and the next island has a dot of orange on it.

Ahhh....thank you for your sharp eye and CaneF's intel. I see it now.