Just a slight shift to the right but only a few nautical miles...
Sure wish this thing would get out of my neighborhood.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_s.shtml
MW
00Z GFS...Still a Close Call for SFL
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JetMaxx
I just wonder if Isabel is going to pull another Floyd? Scare the h#ll out of Florida...then turn north, accelerate and plow the daylights out of North Carolina....and possibly the East Coast....
I'm not convinced yet...but the 00z GFS and latest GFDL and UKmet are awful tempting. I'm not going to bite -- not with a couple of the latest NHC track models hinting at a turn back toward the west in the 96-120 hr time frame...PLUS the ECMWF AND 00z NOGAPS still keeping Izzy far south.
My gut feeling is something in between the GFDL and ECMWF -- in between DT's "Donna" and Hazel" scenario....maybe a landfalling major hurricane around West Palm Beach or Jupiter, Florida...then recurvature over Florida....along 81W...up into SE Georgia then accelerating as a weakening hurricane across the Carolinas -- bringing a deluge to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.....similar to the great "San Felipe" hurricane of September 1928....
PW
I'm not convinced yet...but the 00z GFS and latest GFDL and UKmet are awful tempting. I'm not going to bite -- not with a couple of the latest NHC track models hinting at a turn back toward the west in the 96-120 hr time frame...PLUS the ECMWF AND 00z NOGAPS still keeping Izzy far south.
My gut feeling is something in between the GFDL and ECMWF -- in between DT's "Donna" and Hazel" scenario....maybe a landfalling major hurricane around West Palm Beach or Jupiter, Florida...then recurvature over Florida....along 81W...up into SE Georgia then accelerating as a weakening hurricane across the Carolinas -- bringing a deluge to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.....similar to the great "San Felipe" hurricane of September 1928....
PW
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JetMaxx wrote:I just wonder if Isabel is going to pull another Floyd? Scare the h#ll out of Florida...then turn north, accelerate and plow the daylights out of North Carolina....and possibly the East Coast....
I'm not convinced yet...but the 00z GFS and latest GFDL and UKmet are awful tempting. I'm not going to bite -- not with a couple of the latest NHC track models hinting at a turn back toward the west in the 96-120 hr time frame...PLUS the ECMWF AND 00z NOGAPS still keeping Izzy far south.
My gut feeling is something in between the GFDL and ECMWF -- in between DT's "Donna" and Hazel" scenario....maybe a landfalling major hurricane around West Palm Beach or Jupiter, Florida...then recurvature over Florida....along 81W...up into SE Georgia then accelerating as a weakening hurricane across the Carolinas -- bringing a deluge to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.....similar to the great "San Felipe" hurricane of September 1928....
PW
trending away from sou fla...its only 72w at 26n on thc 120 hour....i suspect sofla is saved again..good, we dont need this one for sure
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JetMaxx
Possible...but the ECMWF is troubling to me. It's accuracy with hurricane Fabian and both Isadore and Lili last season was exceptional.
I may change my analysis after the NOAA jet mission this afternoon, and that data utilized in the model runs late this evening/ tonight.
Even if Isabel is at 26N and 72W in 120 hours...which I'll have to see to believe, there's a possibility of a westward turn as was observed in the great September 1947 hurricane...in a similar type of upper pattern. We'll just have to wait and see.
The threat to south Florida certainly appears less than this time yesterday...but it's far too early to sound an all clear...for anyone along the East Coast.
PW
I may change my analysis after the NOAA jet mission this afternoon, and that data utilized in the model runs late this evening/ tonight.
Even if Isabel is at 26N and 72W in 120 hours...which I'll have to see to believe, there's a possibility of a westward turn as was observed in the great September 1947 hurricane...in a similar type of upper pattern. We'll just have to wait and see.
The threat to south Florida certainly appears less than this time yesterday...but it's far too early to sound an all clear...for anyone along the East Coast.
PW
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JetMaxx wrote:Possible...but the ECMWF is troubling to me. It's accuracy with hurricane Fabian and both Isadore and Lili last season was exceptional.
I may change my analysis after the NOAA jet mission this afternoon, and that data utilized in the model runs late this evening/ tonight.
Even if Isabel is at 26N and 72W in 120 hours...which I'll have to see to believe, there's a possibility of a westward turn as was observed in the great September 1947 hurricane...in a similar type of upper pattern. We'll just have to wait and see.
The threat to south Florida certainly appears less than this time yesterday...but it's far too early to sound an all clear...for anyone along the East Coast.
PW
definetely all clear can't be sounded but i like the trend..noaa mission is tomorrow not today unfortunately. tropical models can easily trend back as fast as they did yesterday. models could easily be overdoing the weakness...again, EASILY!!
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JetMaxx
The 5 a.m. Isabel discussion and forecast were written by Lixion Avila...probably my least favorite NHC forecaster (along with Miles Lawrence)...but even very conservative Lixion has the instincts and savvy to warn in his discussion that beyond 5 days high pressure is progged to build offshore the U.S. East Coast, and the strength of that will determine who (if anyone) is slammed by Isabel.
FYI - I'm not attempting to slur Mr Avila. He's an experienced forecaster and well spoken individual I've been honored to meet...I have a great deal of respect for the gentleman, as I do all NHC hurricane specialists; I just have much more confidence in Stacy Stewart and James Franklin...not to mention my mentor David Tolleris.
PW
FYI - I'm not attempting to slur Mr Avila. He's an experienced forecaster and well spoken individual I've been honored to meet...I have a great deal of respect for the gentleman, as I do all NHC hurricane specialists; I just have much more confidence in Stacy Stewart and James Franklin...not to mention my mentor David Tolleris.
PW
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[quote="JetMaxx"]I just wonder if Isabel is going to pull another Floyd? Scare the h#ll out of Florida...then turn north, accelerate and plow the daylights out of North Carolina....and possibly the East Coast....
I'm not convinced yet...but the 00z GFS and latest GFDL and UKmet are awful tempting. I'm not going to bite -- not with a couple of the latest NHC track models hinting at a turn back toward the west in the 96-120 hr time frame...PLUS the ECMWF AND 00z NOGAPS still keeping Izzy far south.
My gut feeling is something in between the GFDL and ECMWF -- in between DT's "Donna" and Hazel" scenario....maybe a landfalling major hurricane around West Palm Beach or Jupiter, Florida...then recurvature over Florida....along 81W...up into SE Georgia then accelerating as a weakening hurricane across the Carolinas -- bringing a deluge to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.....similar to the great "San Felipe" hurricane of September 1928....
PW[/quote] That is NOT what I wanted to read this early in the morning :o
Barb in Jupiter
I'm not convinced yet...but the 00z GFS and latest GFDL and UKmet are awful tempting. I'm not going to bite -- not with a couple of the latest NHC track models hinting at a turn back toward the west in the 96-120 hr time frame...PLUS the ECMWF AND 00z NOGAPS still keeping Izzy far south.
My gut feeling is something in between the GFDL and ECMWF -- in between DT's "Donna" and Hazel" scenario....maybe a landfalling major hurricane around West Palm Beach or Jupiter, Florida...then recurvature over Florida....along 81W...up into SE Georgia then accelerating as a weakening hurricane across the Carolinas -- bringing a deluge to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S.....similar to the great "San Felipe" hurricane of September 1928....
PW[/quote] That is NOT what I wanted to read this early in the morning :o
Barb in Jupiter
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JetMaxx
I'm about to go back to bed (got up just to see the latest data and 5 a.m. advisory/ discussion)...but have one other thought to add..
I haven't seen the FSU Superensemble, but a friend of mine has...he's a chief meteorologist here in Atlanta, and he told me around midnight last night that it, like the ECMWF...also keeps hurricane Isabel much farther south than most guidance -- taking it close to the Turks and Caicos Islands/ SE Bahamas in 4-5 days. That's another reason I'm hesitant to change my theory of a landfall in SE Florida.
We'll have a much better handle on Isabel's future course and likely intensity after the NOAA jet measurements are added to the model input. It's my understanding the first G-4 mission is scheduled for this evening (9/12 00z).
I haven't seen the FSU Superensemble, but a friend of mine has...he's a chief meteorologist here in Atlanta, and he told me around midnight last night that it, like the ECMWF...also keeps hurricane Isabel much farther south than most guidance -- taking it close to the Turks and Caicos Islands/ SE Bahamas in 4-5 days. That's another reason I'm hesitant to change my theory of a landfall in SE Florida.
We'll have a much better handle on Isabel's future course and likely intensity after the NOAA jet measurements are added to the model input. It's my understanding the first G-4 mission is scheduled for this evening (9/12 00z).
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GaryOBX
- Tropical Depression
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- Location: Outer Banks, NC
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Outer Banks Double Whammy
The 00z GFS is the worst possible scenario for North Carolina's Outer Banks: a major hurricane crossing over our tiny barrier islands while moving north.
It would start with severe battering waves along the ocean front, causing beach erosion and major flooding. But what most people don't realize is that while all the action is on the oceanfront, that's just the big setup for what's about to happen.
As the hurricane travels north with it's strong winds out of the E and ESE, it is pushing the waters in the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds to the west. As the hurricane moves north of you, the winds shift to the W and NW, and (you guessed it) all of that water comes rushing back in an instant. That causes flooding on the west side of the Outer Banks.
I have lived here for 15 years. I have been through some storms. The Halloween storm (aka Perfect Storm) 12 years ago was the worst flooding I've experienced. There was water everywhere.
If the GFS is right, I hope Outer Bankers will not be complacent. Isabel means business.
It would start with severe battering waves along the ocean front, causing beach erosion and major flooding. But what most people don't realize is that while all the action is on the oceanfront, that's just the big setup for what's about to happen.
As the hurricane travels north with it's strong winds out of the E and ESE, it is pushing the waters in the Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds to the west. As the hurricane moves north of you, the winds shift to the W and NW, and (you guessed it) all of that water comes rushing back in an instant. That causes flooding on the west side of the Outer Banks.
I have lived here for 15 years. I have been through some storms. The Halloween storm (aka Perfect Storm) 12 years ago was the worst flooding I've experienced. There was water everywhere.
If the GFS is right, I hope Outer Bankers will not be complacent. Isabel means business.
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Gary OBX...
My wife and I just took a vacation and visited D.C. We stayed the night in Morehead City and then the next day we kind of paralleled the coast. Took a ferry at Cherry Branch and took another ferry across Pamlico Sound. Visited Nags Head and ate lunch at Dirty Dick's in Kill Devil Hills. After having visited there I have a much better understanding of the vulnerability of the Outer Banks. It's a really nice place, but there is no way I would try to ride out anything stronger than a Cat 2 if I lived there. I'll keep my fingers crossed for all of you up that way because it looks as though you are facing a very real threat from Isabel. Take care.
My wife and I just took a vacation and visited D.C. We stayed the night in Morehead City and then the next day we kind of paralleled the coast. Took a ferry at Cherry Branch and took another ferry across Pamlico Sound. Visited Nags Head and ate lunch at Dirty Dick's in Kill Devil Hills. After having visited there I have a much better understanding of the vulnerability of the Outer Banks. It's a really nice place, but there is no way I would try to ride out anything stronger than a Cat 2 if I lived there. I'll keep my fingers crossed for all of you up that way because it looks as though you are facing a very real threat from Isabel. Take care.
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