Possible Subtropical Storm Forming off SE U.S. Coast

[cycloneye]

But NHC doesn't bite yet.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Ntxw]

I think the big reason to believe the Euro over the GFS and what not is the -NAO. When it's that low there's usually a block to the north of the EC and energy bundles, resulting in a big storm somewhere whether coastal or just offshore (same idea for winter nor'easters). I think whatever does form if it does have tropical characteristics will be brief so as wxman57 mentioned a name could happen, but will quickly transition as it gains latitude or interacts with a trough behind it. Either way it's going to create problems to an area that likely doesn't need it.

[wxman57]

It does look like it will start off at least partly tropical. But as the upper trof digs off the coast this weekend it transitions to a large extratropical low. Could produce 30-40 kt winds along the coast of New England, as with any Nor'easter. Hopefully, it gets named STS Jerry as I need another named storm for our September contest...

[stormlover2013]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html


euro showing it again!!!

[AJC3]

looks tropical to me in the latest runs...gulfstream could support just about anything tropical.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

You have to look at a 3-dimensional projection of the system. Surface low with upper low just to the NW and 50-70kt jet overhead. Not a tropical setup. That's not to say such a storm wouldn't be bad. It would have a much larger wind field than a typical TC, sort of like Sandy did. I'd definitely be paying attention to what spins up off the SE U.S. Coast if I lived along the East Coast.

Would it be warm core and non-frontal though? That qualifies as tropical. Possible analog being the last storm of 1866?

"Warm core" is used in a nebulous sense on here. If the system has a deep layer central warm core, which would preclude it from possessing any other primary non-tropical structure or characteristics (such as an upper level low or trough atop it in the 500MB-200MB layer, as the ECM is advertising in this case), then it would qualify as a TC.

[OuterBanker]

Very interesting scenario setting up. A test for the new GFS. As always it wants to take the low out. Both the Euro and Canadian moved quite a bit east between the 00z and 12z runs (Canadian was a rather nasty run at 00z, not so much at 12z for us). But, one thing all three agree on. Looks like Nova Scotia is going to get nailed.

[Hammy]

How possible is it that this could be a subtropical system similar to the one that went up the coast in 1981?

[hurricanekid416]

I live here in Delaware and this is the feeling I had before Sandy and Irene when the models first hinted at an October hybrid hurricane hitting and causing a lot of damage

[storm4u]

It wont be anything like that theres no model showing it and the storm does not have enough time over warm water to pull it off

I live here in Delaware and this is the feeling I had before Sandy and Irene when the models first hinted at an October hybrid hurricane hitting and causing a lot of damage

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

If the storm does form, I'll be sure to follow it at my weather blog. Also you can find great real time, as it happened, past info about both Irene and Sandy in my archives. -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/

[Ntxw]

Yeah plenty of time to watch this. Irene and Sandy started as very formidable Hurricanes down south and had a large footprints in place heading north. This system is going to start much weaker and resemble coastal storms that start in the gulf riding up the eastern seaboard during winter.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

000
FXUS61 KCAR 242041
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
441 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2013.....

......LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

A SUNNY AND MILD AUTUMN WEEKEND IS AHEAD AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE HIGH WILL BRING A CLEAR
NIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE AROUND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE SATURDAY WILL TURN OUT SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
A MILD AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER SUNNY DAY ON SUNDAY AND
TEMPS MAY RISE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SATURDAY AS WARM AIR
CIRCULATES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE HIGH. THE DRY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY LAST INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE WATCHING A SMALL
SUBTROPICAL LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON MONDAY. MOST OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS LOW
WILL SLIDE TO OUR EAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COMES
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS MONDAY WITH JUST A
SMALL CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY MORE DRY
WEATHER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
CARRYING THIS SUBTROPICAL LOW NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IN MID WEEK. FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE
SOUTH AND EAST NEAR THE POTENTIAL TRACK OF THE LOW.......


Source:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CAR&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[ROCK]

It wont be anything like that theres no model showing it and the storm does not have enough time over warm water to pull it off

I live here in Delaware and this is the feeling I had before Sandy and Irene when the models first hinted at an October hybrid hurricane hitting and causing a lot of damage

You can't say that for sure. The EURO 12z run was very aggressive...there is plenty of warm water along the coast to get this thing ramped up quickly...

[storm4u]

Why would anyone compare this storm to sandy its nothing like it at all

It wont be anything like that theres no model showing it and the storm does not have enough time over warm water to pull it off

I live here in Delaware and this is the feeling I had before Sandy and Irene when the models first hinted at an October hybrid hurricane hitting and causing a lot of damage

You can't say that for sure. The EURO 12z run was very aggressive...there is plenty of warm water along the coast to get this thing ramped up quickly...

[Sanibel]

Good rain training over us from this front.

[GrandCaymanDude]

A subtropical system wouldn't surprise me with the Gulf Stream and expected baroclinic influence. Looks like a very noreaster-ish set up with subtropical features mixing in.

[tolakram]

Please stop the bickering, and remember to include a disclaimer in your post if you are predicting something.

[cycloneye]

NHC is not bullish on this.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[wxman57]

It appears that the models are developing a low center associated with the low-level vorticity of a deep upper-level trof/low which will swing off the southeast U.S. Coast this weekend. Completely non-tropical. Your typical nor'easter. The disturbance over the northern FL Peninsula shoots off to the east, and the swirl in the Gulf stays there and dissipates.

[Ntxw]

Yep agreed wxman57, looks more and more like an early season nor'easter with each run, heights and 850mb temps just do not resemble anything tropical. It isn't that big of a storm down south like the hybrids we know. If it managed cane status in the Egom diff story, but extremely unlikely.