Global model runs discussion

[Ntxw]

If the Euro/GFS/Canadian/Ukmet have their way and the MJO continues to crawl, October may not feature much.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Side note: I really hate posting all this negativity and something needs to get going...but reality is the atmosphere is just not working for us weather enthusiasts looking for a spark.

[WeatherEmperor]

If the Euro/GFS/Canadian/Ukmet have their way and the MJO continues to crawl, October may not feature much.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

Side note: I really hate posting all this negativity and something needs to get going...but reality is the atmosphere is just not working for us weather enthusiasts looking for a spark.

Thank you for posting this. You are not being negative. You are being realistic. The atmospheric conditions just arent favorable...and havent been for much of the season. A lot of people out there will just have to begin accepting the reality that its just not there this hurricane season. Thanks again for posting this. It really puts things in perspective

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[CourierPR]

The MJO doesn't influence development in the GOM and Caribbean. We can still have storms form there.

[hurricanetrack]

Could be a big November!

[Riptide]

Bahamas system on the GFS, something to watch in the medium to long-range.

[blp]

Well look what we have here. I know it is at the end of the range and probably a phantom but I am just glad to see something on the GFS. I will take the phantom storms any day over showing nothing.

Also, take a look at the MDR.

[cycloneye]

That for sure will change many times but being October is something to watch to see if this model mantains this and the Euro joins later.

[Dean4Storms]

Well look what we have here. I know it is at the end of the range and probably a phantom but I am just glad to see something on the GFS. I will take the phantom storms any day over showing nothing.

Also, take a look at the MDR.

And that huge ridge over the eastern half of the US moving eastward from this 500mb forecast me thinks the upper Gulf from TX to Florida could be open for business if this panned out and especially Florida if that ridge just east continues to back down.
384hr

[hurricanetrack]

FWIW, that cyclone gets going a few days earlier in the SE Caribbean Sea from an easterly wave. That seems plausible since the tropical waves are still coming off of Africa and seem to be fairly robust still. Perhaps October will make up some lost ground.

[blp]

FWIW, that cyclone gets going a few days earlier in the SE Caribbean Sea from an easterly wave. That seems plausible since the tropical waves are still coming off of Africa and seem to be fairly robust still. Perhaps October will make up some lost ground.

I agree with your comment. Those waves in the MDR have been showing up lately strong on the GFS and it won't take much of a ridge to get them further west into the prime spot for October.

[Blown Away]

9.25.13 12z GFS showing a possible TS/Hurricane moving through the Caribbean towards Yucatan... GEM was showing development in this area a few days ago... IMO, one of the best looking systems we have seen in a model run all season... Hits and misses with the models over the past few days to justify keeping an eye on this area... It's very long range...

[cycloneye]

Moved your post to this models thread as there is no system out there in Caribbean.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Moved your post to this models thread as there is no system out there in Caribbean.

I know, you keep giving me the boot and somebody else will get credit when this happens... Lol, j/k of course...

[alienstorm]

This could be the one that could happen. We will need to see what future runs show.

[hurricanes1234]

This is very very far out, so I'll be monitoring the next few runs. If they are constantly being lowered, then I will assume that it is just another model storm.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxman57]

Sure, I believe the 384hr GFS prediction of a hurricane near the Yucatan with a NW Gulf threat as high pressure to the north slips east. Hurricane on Texas coast in mid October. Why not?

On a more serious note, we do have to keep an eye on the western Caribbean & Gulf through at least mid October for "close-in" development.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The MJO doesn't influence development in the GOM and Caribbean. We can still have storms form there.

That's not true. The MJO is very influential in the Gulf and Caribbean, *especially* in the early/late portion of the season when atmospheric conditions generally aren't ripe for tropical cyclone formation.

[Alyono]

The MJO doesn't influence development in the GOM and Caribbean. We can still have storms form there.

Actually, those are the area most affected by the MJO

[HURRICANELONNY]

Didn't the GFS show a storm in the carribean on Oct 3

[LaBreeze]

Well look what we have here. I know it is at the end of the range and probably a phantom but I am just glad to see something on the GFS. I will take the phantom storms any day over showing nothing.

Also, take a look at the MDR.

http://imageshack.us/a/img28/8992/rnyh.jpg

Probably another visitor to Mexico.