Now I'm getting concernced

[weatherluvr]

Not that I wasn't before, but after seeing this...

The 5AM NHC discussion mentions a weakness in the ridge will allow Isabel to turn more NW. This seems to increase the chance of her coming up the coast to Long Island. Any thoughts/opinions?

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

weatherluvr....i am with ya! I was kinda shocked to see the NHC change there course so much this morning. :o

[Steve H.]

What were you guys reading? Avila said that models re-build the ridge at the end of the forecast period and turn her back on a westerly course

[Aquawind]

No reason to be shocked..The turn is inevitable. I think it's more in response the Low developing off the Carolina coast and creating the weakness.. timming is everything..and there is plenty of time for things to change again.

[wxman57]

What were you guys reading? Avila said that models re-build the ridge at the end of the forecast period and turn her back on a westerly course

Not exactly a westerly course, maybe, Steve. More like WNW-NW. At least the GFS is indicating a landfall on Long Island now. I still think the ridge will be a bit stronger and Isabel will hit farther south, though. But nobody is "safe" from south FL to Long Island yet.

[TampaFl]

Agree with you Steve H. The NHC 11:00PM & 5:00AM discussion says strong high pressure is forecast to build over the southeast US.

11:00PM Discussion:

IT IS NATURAL TO WANT TO SPECULATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 5
DAYS...BUT IT SIMPLY IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DO SO WITH CONFIDENCE. THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
REMAIN OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 5. THE EXTENT AND
ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GIVEN THAT ISABEL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO REVIEW THEIR
PREPAREDNESS PLANS IN CASE ISABEL BECOMES A DIRECT THREAT.


5:00AM Discussion:

NOTE: ALL MODELS RE-DEVELOP A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION
OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE ISABEL WILL
GET TO THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.

Everyone needs to pay very close attention from here on out. WE still have several days to watch. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert

[weatherluvr]

ISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS IMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FORCING ISABEL TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. BECAUSE THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPORARILY WEAKEN... ISABEL COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND THEY ALL SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN... BRINGING THE CORE OF ISABEL PARALLEL AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. IN FACT THE GFS... NO LONGER BRINGS ISABEL STRAIGHT WESTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GDFL... WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR... HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.

NOTE: ALL MODELS RE-DEVELOP A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST OFF THE US EAST COAST IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THIS RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE ISABEL WILL GET TO THE US EAST COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

I see nothing about a turn back to the west...

[Rainband]

Slightly northward..it say wnw not nw..calm down and watch and wait. With a slight northern adjustment...that doesn't really put you in danger yet!!

[Steve H.]

True it doesn't say westerly course, but what do you think a ridge re-building over the western Atlantic would do? What effect would it have. Read between the lines. Temporary weakening of the ridge is the key here. Yes it could put it back to a WNW track. WHen I said westerly, it could be W/WNW/NW. NW would put her into SC. WNW into central/north Florida. Lots of time, but the solution could bring her to the central Florida coast, then up the eastern seaboard. So nobody is out of the woods here. When she gets north of my latitude and is still offshore, I'll feel better. Cheers!!

[wrkh99]

It doesn't say anything about a NW turn. Or SC nc

Please only post only the truth here !

[ColdFront77]

It doesn't say anything about a NW turn. Or SC nc

Please only post only the truth here !

Truth and opinions can be two different things.


Yesterday forecast indicated that Isabel would move again move with a norterly component, but remain mainly westward because of the building ridge and the trough to the west slowing down, thus not having much bearing on the storm.