Global model runs discussion

[BigB0882]

When was the last time the upper TX coast or LA was hit by a hurricane in October? That probably doesn't happen often and this would be mid October, nearly. I imagine it becomes more common as you move towards MS/AL and obviously, FL but TX/LA have probably not seen many. I don't remember any in my lifetime but I don't know what happened when I was a kid.

[CourierPR]

The MJO doesn't influence development in the GOM and Caribbean. We can still have storms form there.

Actually, those are the area most affected by the MJO

Thank you for setting me straight. I stand corrected. I wear support stockings.

[Hammy]

When was the last time the upper TX coast or LA was hit by a hurricane in October?

In the satellite era, Louisiana was hit with October hurricanes in 2002 (Lili), 1985 (Juan), and 1964 (Hilda), but upper Texas was hit only once and that was in 1989 (Jerry).

[hurricanes1234]

Back to the model runs, are they still showing a storm in the western Caribbean? Has it been lowered or dropped since 18z today?

[beoumont]

Can anyone recall a 384 GFS showing a hurricane in a general area of the Atlantic basin, EVER verifying: even within 350 miles and within 48 hours of reality? If you can, please do post, from archives, both the prog and the analysis map of this occurrence.

[Ntxw]

When was the last time the upper TX coast or LA was hit by a hurricane in October?

In the satellite era, Louisiana was hit with October hurricanes in 2002 (Lili), 1985 (Juan), and 1964 (Hilda), but upper Texas was hit only once and that was in 1989 (Jerry).

Too add, I went back through NCDC archives on hurricane strikes and there has been a total of 13 hurricane landfalls in the US for the month of October since 1950. 8 hit Florida (most recent being Wilma), 3 hit Louisiana, 1 Hit Texas, and the last South Carolina. So in short October landfalls are few and far between, Florida being the most likely. A lot has to do with westerlies and troughs digging in around this time making the wgom hostile and shunting everything east from the Carib and/or southern gulf as the month progresses.

[blp]

18z GFS is weaker and looks to develop from another wave but one bright spot is that there are more ensemble members on board with development on 18z from 12z

12z
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013092512/gfs-ens_lowlocs_atl_33.png

18z
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2013092518/gfs-ens_lowlocs_atl_33.png

[Dean4Storms]

I think everyone realizes this is super long range and in the GFS la la land. But come on, lets not be sending all these negative waves!

[ninel conde]

GFS shows a potentially interesting scenario off the se coast in 7 days if this time the strong high really develops.

[Blown Away]

06z... GFS still showing a Caribbean TS in the long range...

[wxman57]

When was the last time the upper TX coast or LA was hit by a hurricane in October? That probably doesn't happen often and this would be mid October, nearly. I imagine it becomes more common as you move towards MS/AL and obviously, FL but TX/LA have probably not seen many. I don't remember any in my lifetime but I don't know what happened when I was a kid.

The answer to your question is Hurricane Jerry on October 15th, 1989. Interestingly enough, the next name on the 2013 list is Jerry. Of course, with the jet stream typically digging down to the northern Gulf by mid October, a more likely scenario would be a turn to the NE as a system approaches the northern Gulf coast. Florida is often impacted by October storms (Wilma, 2005).

As for the GFS, that was just one freak run. Current runs are indicating a TS approaching the eastern Caribbean in 384hrs. Probably won't happen either, but certainly not impossible.

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Lili hit LA on October in 2002

[alienstorm]

Nice clusters of Thunderstorms north of Panama with a nice anticyclone flow aloft. Some of the models had hinted at some development off Nicaragua Hondurus by this weekend. Latest models for FIM 8, FIM 9, CMC and to some extent the EMCF show potential development in this area by day 5.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[Dean4Storms]

Nice clusters of Thunderstorms north of Panama with a nice anticyclone flow aloft. Some of the models had hinted at some development off Nicaragua Hondurus by this weekend. Latest models for FIM 8, FIM 9, CMC and to some extent the EMCF show potential development in this area by day 5.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Think this is the area where the 6z GFS develops a Low and eventually by early Oct. drags it northward across Cuba and into the Bahamas.

[Hurricaneman]

Nice clusters of Thunderstorms north of Panama with a nice anticyclone flow aloft. Some of the models had hinted at some development off Nicaragua Hondurus by this weekend. Latest models for FIM 8, FIM 9, CMC and to some extent the EMCF show potential development in this area by day 5.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

Think this is the area where the 6z GFS develops a Low and eventually by early Oct. drags it northward across Cuba and into the Bahamas.

I'm going to start a thread on that, seems do not do much until the Bahamas and still does little with it there

[Ptarmigan]

When was the last time the upper TX coast or LA was hit by a hurricane in October? That probably doesn't happen often and this would be mid October, nearly. I imagine it becomes more common as you move towards MS/AL and obviously, FL but TX/LA have probably not seen many. I don't remember any in my lifetime but I don't know what happened when I was a kid.

A hurricane did hit Texas in November 1839. Seems like before 1851, tropical storms and hurricanes have hit Texas more in October. Not as much after 1951.

Years That Had Tropical Storms and Hurricanes That Hit Texas After September 15 (1851-Present)
1854
1857
1863
1867
1871
1875
1877
1886-2 Hurricanes Made Landfall
1887
1895
1898
1912
1938
1940
1941-Tropical Storm and Hurricane Made Landfall
1949
1963
1967
1970
1971
1989
2004-Ivan made landfall as regenerated tropical storm
2005

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf


On a related topic, I have noticed no tropical development for the next few days in the Atlantic.

[LaBreeze]

Hurricane Lili hit LA on October in 2002

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/6831/iun4.png

Oh yes, I remember it well. She removed most of the roof of my house and several large trees in the yard.

[SFLcane]

FIM model is pretty aggressive with disturbed wx in SW caribbean. Has it heading N towards Cuba and possibly Florida.

[wxman57]

FIM model is pretty aggressive with disturbed wx in SW caribbean. Has it heading N towards Cuba and possibly Florida.

Flow aloft from the west across central & northern Gulf would suggest a NE turn if anything came out of the Caribbean into the southern Gulf. Typical of late September. Florida would be threatened.

[SFLcane]

FIM model is pretty aggressive with disturbed wx in SW caribbean. Has it heading N towards Cuba and possibly Florida.

Flow aloft from the west across central & northern Gulf would suggest a NE turn if anything came out of the Caribbean into the southern Gulf. Typical of late September. Florida would be threatened.

Indeed Chris! Watching that disturbed wx north of panama.