WPAC: WUTIP - Tropical Depression

[jaguarjace]

17.8N 116.4E

[jaguarjace]

[Grifforzer]

Been a 30 knot tropical depression in the south China Sea since 1200z

** WTPQ21 RJTD 260000 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 15.0N 118.4E POOR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 15.1N 116.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

** WTPQ31 RJTD 260000 ***

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 15.0N 118.4E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 260000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=

[Grifforzer]

Paolo from the Philippines.

Weather Bulletin Number One
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Depression “#Paolo”
Issued At 5:00 Pm, 26 September 2013
(Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today)

The Low Pressure Area (LPA) west of Zambales has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named “PAOLO”.

Location of eye/center: At 4:00 PM today, the center of Tropical Depression “PAOLO” was estimated based on all available data at 230 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.9°N, 117.9°E).

Strength: Maximum winds of 45 kph near the center.

Movement: Forecast to move West at 7 kph.

Forecast Positions: Tropical Depression “PAOLO” is expected to be at 400 km West of Subic, Zambales by tomorrow afternoon. By Saturday afternoon, it is expected to be outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) at 570 km West of Subic, Zambales.

•Estimated rainfall amount is from 5 – 7.5 mm per hour (moderate – occasionally heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the Tropical Depression.
•Tropical Depression “PAOLO” will not yet affect any part of the country. However, it will enhance the Southwest Monsoon that will bring moderate to occasionally heavy rains and thunderstorms over Zambales, Bataan, Mindoro and Northern Palawan.
•The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

[jaguarjace]

<Analyses at 26/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N15°05'(15.1°)
E118°05'(118.1°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 27/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25'(15.4°)
E116°25'(116.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

Saved loop.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert Issued



WTPN21 PGTW 260800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7N 118.1E TO 16.2N 113.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
260730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
117.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5N
117.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING CONCENTRATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT
SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES 15-20 KNOT WIND BARBS EMBEDDED IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE PERENIALLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMROVED UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
270800Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 117.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 117.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 15.3N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 15.7N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.6N 114.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.3N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.4N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.1N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 17.5N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 116.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 728 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261800Z IS 5 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND
272100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 260800Z SEP 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 260800). REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (PABUK)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 728 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
DEFINED LLCC. A 261543Z OSCAT PASS AND A 261820Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE
IMAGE SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND SHOW
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. ADDITIONALLY, THE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO T1.5 (25
KNOTS) AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS,
THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENED AND BECOME
MORE SYMMETRIC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE (05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW. TD 20W IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 20W SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR
IN THE NEAR-TERM. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, THE STEERING INFLUENCE
WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANTLY THE MID-LEVEL STR, CAUSING A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ALLOWING TD
20W TO TURN BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS UPPER LEVEL REMAINS
FAVORABLE AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 (28 TO 29 CELSIUS).
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 84, WHEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER CENTRAL ASIA, CREATING INCREASING LEVELS OF VWS OVER THE LLCC.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SST VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS TD 20W
APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM. BEYOND TAU 96, INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SST VALUES AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO START
DISSIPATING DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS THROUGH TAU 120. BASED ON
THE CURRENT SLOW TRACK SPEED AND VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

20th tropical cyclone of the season and potential 8th typhoon of the season.

[hurricanes1234]

3z advisory now up to 30 knots. Nearly a TS.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 713 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A LARGE, ALBEIT BROKEN, BANDING FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A 262139Z SSMIS REVEALS FRAGMENTED
BANDING SPANNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES.
ALSO, THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS AND POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES
SUPPORT THE CURRENT POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE VORTICITY SIGNATURE HAS SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHENED AND REMAINED SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
(05 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE AT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS. TD 20W IS SLOWLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 20W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STR IN
THE NEAR-TERM. AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES, THE STEERING INFLUENCE
WILL SHIFT TO PREDOMINANTLY THE MID-LEVEL STR, CAUSING A SLIGHT TURN
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48, ALLOWING TD
20W TO TURN BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS AN EXTENSION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REORIENTS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 72 AS UPPER LEVEL REMAINS
FAVORABLE AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE ALONG TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 (28 TO 29 CELSIUS).
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 84, WHEN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRANSITS
OVER CENTRAL ASIA, CREATING INCREASING LEVELS OF VWS OVER THE LLCC.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SST VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS TD 20W
APPROACHES THE COAST OF VIETNAM. BEYOND TAU 96, INCREASING VWS,
DECREASING SST VALUES AND LAND INTERACTION WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO START
DISSIPATING DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS THROUGH TAU 120. BASED ON
THE CURRENT SLOW TRACK SPEED AND VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW.//
NNNN

[stormkite]

Active monsoon trough over western Pacific
Last week the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) moved slowly over the Maritime Continent and far western Pacific and contributed to enhanced tropical convection along an active monsoon trough that stretched from the Arabian Sea to the west Pacific. The MJO also aided in tropical cyclone development over the Northwest Pacific. Last week, typhoon Usagi became the third storm to reach typhoon strength, and the strongest tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific, so far this year. Recently, severe tropical storm Pabuk became the twenty-first named storm this season and is forecast to move slowly to the northwest and intensify in coming days. Based on the movement of the MJO, the risk of tropical cyclone development over the Northwest Pacific is likely to remain high for the coming two weeks.
Later this week the MJO is likely to move slowly eastwards into the west Pacific, enhancing convection over the region.

http://www.bom.gov.au/‎

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR
03A RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM
EAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS SOLIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER RELOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND ON CLOSELY-SPACED AGENCY FIXES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD TO REFLECT THE INTENSIFYING TREND. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORABLE AT 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TS 20W GENERALLY WESTWARD
TOWARDS VIETNAM. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM
WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 20W WILL CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN AND MAKE
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM. IT WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. //
NNNN

Tropical Storm 20W

[Macrocane]

Is it just a dry spot or has Wutip alredy developed an eye like feature?

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 407 NM EAST
OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED FORMATIVE - ALBEIT FRAGMENTED - BANDING, MOSTLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE ANIMATION AND PLACED BETWEEN CLOSELY-SPACED AGENCY FIXES WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05
TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TS 20W GENERALLY WESTWARD
TOWARDS VIETNAM. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED IN PARA 2 ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND PROMOTE STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE STORM
WILL PEAK AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48 BEFORE CROSSING THE GULF OF TONKIN
AND MAKING LANDFALL INTO CENTRAL VIETNAM SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS WUTIP WILL RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT DRAGS ACROSS
THE RUGGED INDOCHINA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. //
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

holy crap, is that an eye beginning to form on microwave?!

[hurricanes1234]

I was now coming to post that an eye was forming! What are the latest satellite/dvorak/best track estimates showing?

[hurricanes1234]

Best Track is up to 55 knots!

20W WUTIP 130928 0000 16.6N 113.7E WPAC 55 982

[phwxenthusiast]

i'm afraid this is gonna be another storm where the JMA will lag behind in intensity...

[stormkite]

ABPW10 PGTW 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/272200Z-280600ZSEP2013//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271952ZSEP2013//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):


A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 271800Z, TROPICAL STORM 20W (WUTIP) WAS LOCATED NEAR
16.9N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 531 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM,
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 272100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N
135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTERLY WIND BURST. A 271946Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS
WITH WEAK BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 271210Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH STRONG WESTERLIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP
INDICATE WESTERLY SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH AN
SLP NEAR 1006.4 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF ABOUT 3 MB. DYNAMIC
MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.




http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0


WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM WUTIP (PAOLO) UPDATE NUMBER 003
Issued at: 7:45 AM PhT (23:45 GMT) Saturday 28 September 2013
Tropical Storm WUTIP (PAOLO) has tracked southwest while over the South China Sea and rapidly intensified...could become a Typhoon earlier than expected as it threatens Central Vietnam.

[hurricanes1234]

Wait, wait, wait. Is that a wide, visible eye forming there?! This looks like at least a Category 2, if I were to base it on appearance only.



I cannot believe this. I need microwave support to confirm this.

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