Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WeatherGuesser]

I don't want 'the lid to come off'.

I'd be fine if the next several years were quiet.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't want 'the lid to come off'.

I'd be fine if the next several years were quiet.

Well your in luck for at least this season, I'm wondering if next season will feature an El Nino since were due for one right?

['CaneFreak]

I feel pretty comfortable saying that I think the mid-level dry air and more importantly the overall mid-level SUBSIDENCE has been the main contributor to this season's lack of activity in the Atlantic Basin. If you go back and plot the mid-level (700 mb and above) RH values and the magnitude of the omega over the past few months, I think you will find that the omega has been very positive (indicative of sinking motion) and that the mid level RH has been notoriously dry. I am not doing your homework for you...go back and plot the variables yourself.

IMPORTANT POINT: I have seen many incorrect posts in this forum stating that the mid level dry air alone is what shut the TCs down and I would have to say that is absolutely and totally incorrect. As long as the thunderstorm has enough upward motion to penetrate through the dry air, TCs can still form and flourish just fine. We have seen a few seasons in the past that have had this same problem and we have still seen lots of activity with several major hurricanes still forming in those seasons.

[Ntxw]

I feel pretty comfortable saying that I think the mid-level dry air and more importantly the overall mid-level SUBSIDENCE has been the main contributor to this season's lack of activity in the Atlantic Basin. If you go back and plot the mid-level (700 mb and above) RH values and the magnitude of the omega over the past few months, I think you will find that the omega has been very positive (indicative of sinking motion) and that the mid level RH has been notoriously dry. I am not doing your homework for you...go back and plot the variables yourself.

IMPORTANT POINT: I have seen many incorrect posts in this forum stating that the mid level dry air alone is what shut the TCs down and I would have to say that is absolutely and totally incorrect. As long as the thunderstorm has enough upward motion to penetrate through the dry air, TCs can still form and flourish just fine. We have seen a few seasons in the past that have had this same problem and we have still seen lots of activity with several major hurricanes still forming in those seasons.

Yeah a lot of us agree on that part. Sinking air has been a big problem. The bigger question is why is this so? How can we forecast it ahead of time?

['CaneFreak]

Yeah. That's the 100 million dollar question. I really and truly don't think there was any way of foreseeing such conditions prior to the start of the season. However, you can sure count on lots of research after this kind of season.

I feel pretty comfortable saying that I think the mid-level dry air and more importantly the overall mid-level SUBSIDENCE has been the main contributor to this season's lack of activity in the Atlantic Basin. If you go back and plot the mid-level (700 mb and above) RH values and the magnitude of the omega over the past few months, I think you will find that the omega has been very positive (indicative of sinking motion) and that the mid level RH has been notoriously dry. I am not doing your homework for you...go back and plot the variables yourself.

IMPORTANT POINT: I have seen many incorrect posts in this forum stating that the mid level dry air alone is what shut the TCs down and I would have to say that is absolutely and totally incorrect. As long as the thunderstorm has enough upward motion to penetrate through the dry air, TCs can still form and flourish just fine. We have seen a few seasons in the past that have had this same problem and we have still seen lots of activity with several major hurricanes still forming in those seasons.

Yeah a lot of us agree on that part. Sinking air has been a big problem. The bigger question is why is this so? How can we forecast it ahead of time?

[wxman57]

I think we need to remove "heart of" in the title of this thread...

[TAD]

Yeah a lot of us agree on that part. Sinking air has been a big problem. The bigger question is why is this so? How can we forecast it ahead of time?

I have a question for you weather gurus. I've read some articles (http://www.space.com/9014-sun-fluctuati ... phere.html among others) that state the atmosphere is contracting due to decreased solar input (UV, magnetic, energetic particles) caused by decreased sunspots & flares. Could this be an ambient factor contributing to the "sinking air" problem? Is less than usual energy being deposited into the atmosphere a factor? There was a huge flare Nov 2003... that energy had to go somewhere. 2004 certainly was intensified.

[Hurricaneman]

I think next week will have one last harrah and possibly a hurricane then the season will be in the history books

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[chaser1]

IMPORTANT POINT: I have seen many incorrect posts in this forum stating that the mid level dry air alone is what shut the TCs down and I would have to say that is absolutely and totally incorrect. As long as the thunderstorm has enough upward motion to penetrate through the dry air, TCs can still form and flourish just fine.

There certainly must be a culmination of factors which combined, help create a hurricane season that thus far has been less eventful than watching frantic Labor Day boaters compete for South Florida boat ramp space!

Perhaps post season research will conclude that there truly were other mitigating low level convergent issues such as cooler SST's, anomalously high surface pressures in the lower latitudes or perhaps the contrary existed and N. Atlantic ridging was displaced thus lessening an adequate pressure gradient. I don't think these were inhibiting factors. I do agree that if a column of air provided enough upward motion, it would eventually "break the cap", which at times could even accelerate the process thus enhancing deepening, falling pressures, and further aid inflow. While I clearly remember years with far more convective tropical waves, often times some variable seemed to be missing and there seemed to be a lack of vorticity. I don't think there was evidence indicating any lack of vorticity this year either. What has been obviously evident thus far this year however, are how (most) tropical cyclones have struggled to maintain a continuity of vertical structure. The same could be said for the lack of unabated persistent deep convection. We've seen far stronger tropical storms or hurricanes during some prior years somehow fend off moderately volatile upper level shear conditions in part due to the healthy rise of warm air caused by ongoing intense convection - but again... not this year.

While I agree that mid level subsidence alone might not be the sole factor causing this season to limp to an (thus far) uneventful end, I'd be shocked if it were any less than "12 ounces of 1 pound container of cottage cheese". My own observation is that there seemed to be an awful lot of upper air volatility for a good deal of the season. From the beginning of the season I had thought that upper level westerlies seemed oddly farther south into the lower latitudes than what I typically had recalled during past (non El Nino) seasons. For the most part, nearly all tropical systems this year had become a victim of volatile upper level shear caused by TUTT, cut-off, or straight line westerly winds.

I wonder if the very composition of lower RH air existent between the 300mb - 700mb levels, were less of a cause inhibiting upward motion through the low to mid levels than the impact it might have had sucking dry or cooling the mid to upper levels of a straining vertical core already being compromised by a nearly consistent level of light to moderate shear. I guess what I'm trying to say is maybe cyclones this year have been less capable (verses years past) of developing and maintaining a strong vertical core thus exposing most systems to permit the barely unfavorable upper level conditions or vertical wind shear, to more easily de-couple the depression or T.S. It's almost as if a much higher RH might act more like a cohesive glue aiding the integrity of a vertical warm core system and thus causing a developing Tropical Storm to be better insulated against marginal upper level conditions. Conversely, a much lower RH might better be depicted by the concept of laying out ball bearings on the ground (or near the surface), with more ball bearings being laid on top of them, and finally even more ball bearings on top of all of those below - and all the while trying to maintain some internal open column of rising air while all of these ball bearings lack any frictional glue to prevent them from just rolling off each other.

I dont know...... any way you cut it, it still kinda comes down to "poisoned tropical air". There's no way i'd simply buy into a final conclusion being that the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season had been weak and inactive "mostly caused by stronger upper level winds than were anticipated". So, a dryer Sahara? A larger deforested Amazon region? Warmer global land and SST's during recent years causing greater micro particulates to be lofted and suspended throughout the global belts of winds from pole to equator to pole? I think its going to take a lot of scientists, a lot more data analysis, a good deal of time and a fair amount of debate before its all figured out. As for myself.....I''m gonna go out and look for some volcano to blame LOL

[ninel conde]

Ingrid was named on sept 13. if nothing else were to form how would that rank o earliest ends to seasons?

['CaneFreak]

I agree. "Thoughts on 2013 Tropical Activity" would work just fine.

I think we need to remove "heart of" in the title of this thread...

[cycloneye]

I agree. "Thoughts on 2013 Tropical Activity" would work just fine.

I think we need to remove "heart of" in the title of this thread...

I modified the title better"Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season".

[Ntxw]

I have a question for you weather gurus. I've read some articles (http://www.space.com/9014-sun-fluctuati ... phere.html among others) that state the atmosphere is contracting due to decreased solar input (UV, magnetic, energetic particles) caused by decreased sunspots & flares. Could this be an ambient factor contributing to the "sinking air" problem? Is less than usual energy being deposited into the atmosphere a factor? There was a huge flare Nov 2003... that energy had to go somewhere. 2004 certainly was intensified.

This is a very good question and I'm sure still in infant stages of understanding. I by no means have any merit to answer something like this perhaps a pro met can chime in. But what I do think is the sun is the energy source for everything weather in the background. There are so many powerful variables that results (winds, sst's, ohc) and is difficult to zone out how strong the sun plays out for each variable. The time scales are just too long when looking at solar output and our tracking of it is just too limited to fully understand imo.

[Hurricaneman]

Dry air really wasn't the problem per se, but it was more that there were higher pressures in the mid levels causing thunderstorms not to get where they need to be for tropical formation or tropical cyclone maintenance

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[cycloneye]

Very revealing articule where some experts talk about the lack of activity in the 2013 season.

“The season looks to be a huge bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s annual storm forecast. “That’s one of the fun things about being in the weather business. It definitely keeps you humble.”



Klotzbach said conditions across the Atlantic are only going to become worse for storms in the next few weeks.

“I really don’t see any comeback, and we’ve really only got three or four weeks before the season really starts winding down,” he said.


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-2 ... sters.html

[Ntxw]

Dr. Klotzbach has done a great job admitting and assessing that the season is very likely a dud thus far. Many forecasters continuously a second half burst (even I expected a 2001 type flip) but since late August he's been lowering expectations with the conditions that were very well evident.

Atlantic ACE has not budged the past week and we are falling below 30% to 28%. Realistically climo wise the next 2-3 weeks is the last good chance at picking up some ACE. After that the averages really begins to level off. But at this point even seeing activity normal to climo is a long shot, and a vast improvement. 1994 (El Nino + -AMO) was the last year that even comes close to our number this year and we have a shot at finishing even below that. We will need a modest hurricane in October to match that year in terms of season ACE.

[wxman57]

I've been participating in a group discussion (via email) between a number of top researchers regarding the lack of activity across all basins this year. What we've concluded is that dry air in the mid levels dominates the deep tropics in all basins. This dry air is likely a byproduct of subsidence, which also results in a warming of the air in the mid levels. This leads to a decrease in instability, making it harder for TCs to develop and/or intensify.

Now, the big question is what is the cause of the subsidence? Can we predict it? How can we go forth with future predictions if we cannot predict such a harsh environment?

[tolakram]

I have to admit to having a little bit of an issue with someone forecasting worsening conditions when they were unable to predict this just a few months ago. I also assume the season is winding down now, but that assumption is not based on anything meteorological. So either people have identified what is wrong and feel confident about future short term forecasts, or not.

[chaser1]

I've been participating in a group discussion (via email) between a number of top researchers regarding the lack of activity across all basins this year. What we've concluded is that dry air in the mid levels dominates the deep tropics in all basins. This dry air is likely a byproduct of subsidence, which also results in a warming of the air in the mid levels. This leads to a decrease in instability, making it harder for TCs to develop and/or intensify.

Now, the big question is what is the cause of the subsidence? Can we predict it? How can we go forth with future predictions if we cannot predict such a harsh environment?

Wxman57, this discussion is rather intriguing for several reasons. I find it particularly interesting that there is some degree of agreement from the Meteorological community that a very large scale or nearly global subsidence layer actually exists, at least within a certain distance north (and south??) of the equator. Just for the moment, lets back-burner the "origin question". To your knowledge, would the duration and breadth of global wind belts that this condition has seemingly permeated, approach a level of being "unprecedented"? Whether that answer were yes or no, perhaps the more important question is how sure are we that this condition will soon abate or perhaps even get worse before it gets better. That question is actually rhetorical because it would seem irresponsible to even guess, UNLESS we first do determine the origin of this "cap causing soup". So, not unlike scientists reviewing the sedimentary layer of deep drilled earth below the permafrost to gather information which might bear out past ice ages, prior civilizations, what animal or dinosaur life existed during a particular period or more, why should it be that difficult for a number of drone or recon missions to simply capture air samples over any number of areas within these wind belts regions. The trace make up of particulates tested would likely be fairly consistent and show ash, sand, silt, or trace chemicals that might even point to airborne metals or any other form of pollution. Point is once at least this is done, it would seemingly be easy to then point a finger at "the Sahara" or any one or several collective current or past volcanoes, OR ....uh oh.... something P-O-L-I-T-I-C-A-L

Okay, lets stop and get some lemon-aide rather than drive down that road for the moment. If subsidence does equate to "some" form of media concentration light enough to remain largely suspended (at some range of heights), we can all agree on the fact that it contains no artificial intelligence, right?? LOL This condition certainly had no way of knowing how to magically appear smack at the opening bell of hurricane season, nor to just go away because it will eventually be November 30. So for the sake of discussion, what exactly would happen if such a subsidence layer were to expand and not just be limited to those tropical latitudes, but perhaps mix with those air currents that would eventually envelope higher latitude temperate regions of the planet. All of us, whether from California, or Colorado, or Texas, the upper Midwest or the Southeast, have experienced the temporary effects of a lousy dry hot hazy upper level cap that occurs naturally from time to time. Usually though, days or a week or two later and the mid & upper level flow changes, and the air masses become progressive again. So, is it fair to at least raise this question: Until it is determined what the origin of this "Tropical Trades Soup" is, or that such an event is entirely common to occur over an area that span throughout all N. Hemisphere Oceans south of perhaps 25N, why is it so unreasonable to anticipate that such a condition could potentially spread throughout most of the wind belt regions that circle the globe and ultimately impact all N. America, Asia, Europe, and Africa?

Could such a cap that seemingly prevented the typical quantity & intensity of tropical cyclones throughout Earth's oceanic zones, ultimately cause a similar affect that might bring hotter, dryer, hazier conditions on some scale that would make the Texas & Southwest U.S. droughts look like an Indian Summer in comparative size and scope??? Would such spreading conditions during our Northern Hemisphere winter have some potential impact on the overall air masses?, or what about an impact on snow pack, or any lessor or greater amounts of precipitation falling throughout all landmass regions???

Such a discussion a year ago might have won raves for some writers' Sci-Fi book of the month read. But here, right now.....the 2013 Tropical Cyclone seasons have thus far been "pickled" and at least for the moment has confounded all as just plain weird. So maybe my theoretical question is not altogether so crazy. I went looking for Hope but I think she's been run out of town. Meanwhile, as for the present & the foreseeable future, Weird looks like he's gonna hang around for a while. How long of a while might be answered by the time it took to get here - like this, in the first place.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It will be interesting to see if the current burst of activity in the W Pacific will help claw back some ACE here with Fitow excepted to become a strong typhoon and at least one more system in its wake which looks like having a good shot of becoming a typhoon too.

I know it's unlikely but if Wpac clawed back to average I'm sure that would just compound the confusion right now!