Global model runs discussion

#6601 Postby **crownweather** » Thu Sep 26, 2013 3:51 pm

FIM has been very consistent with that scenario for at least the past couple of days. Will be interested if it is a trend or the odd model out that ends up being wrong.

Rob Lightbown
Crown Weather Services
http://www.crownweather.com

#6602 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Sep 26, 2013 4:46 pm

SFLcane wrote:FIM model is pretty aggressive with disturbed wx in SW caribbean. Has it heading N towards Cuba and possibly Florida.

Can u post a link for the FIM model and maybe a graphic for what you are talking about...

#6603 Postby **crownweather** » Thu Sep 26, 2013 5:34 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:FIM model is pretty aggressive with disturbed wx in SW caribbean. Has it heading N towards Cuba and possibly Florida.

Can u post a link for the FIM model and maybe a graphic for what you are talking about...

FIM model link: http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim9_jet&domain=244&run_time=26+Sep+2013+-+12Z

#6604 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Sep 26, 2013 7:49 pm

Blown Away wrote:
SFLcane wrote:FIM model is pretty aggressive with disturbed wx in SW caribbean. Has it heading N towards Cuba and possibly Florida.

Can u post a link for the FIM model and maybe a graphic for what you are talking about...

Sure can.. http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim_jet&domain=244&run_time=26+Sep+2013+-+12Z

#6605 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:09 pm

At 144 hours it becomes somewhat believable at least...

#6606 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Sep 26, 2013 8:24 pm

Do any other models show what the Fim is showing?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

HURRICANELONNY · #6607 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Thu Sep 26, 2013 9:10 pm

The GFS indicates an area of low pressure may move into the
northwest Caribbean by the middle of the week...with a possible
increase in moisture later in the week
Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... MskgjRz.99

#6608 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:05 am

The 06Z run of the FIM takes this further NW clipping NE tip of Yucatan and into the south central GOM on a NW movement.

#6609 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:19 am

06z GFS 850mb Vort looks to split the energy from the Carib. system taking one Vort northward over Cuba into the northern Bahamas and the other weaker Vort NW toward the south central GOM. Does nothing with either though.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013092706/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

Taffy · #6610 Postby **Taffy** » Fri Sep 27, 2013 9:49 am

Well that needs to go away. Southwest Florida is flooded and doesnt need anymore rain.

#6611 Postby **StormTracker** » Fri Sep 27, 2013 3:19 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:06z GFS 850mb Vort looks to split the energy from the Carib. system taking one Vort northward over Cuba into the northern Bahamas and the other weaker Vort NW toward the south central GOM. Does nothing with either though.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013092706/gfs_z850_vort_watl.html

We've seen the GFS "split-decision" many times this season(which I think is rare)! Maybe it has something to do with a tweak that was done to it, but how many times has the splitting of energy actually happened this season when the GFS forecasted it? And if it did actually come to fruition, were there any other models that predicted a "split-decision"? Does anyone know?

#6612 Postby **GCANE** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:01 am

06Z GFS has something spinning up just west of the Keys

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2013092806&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

CourierPR · #6613 Postby **CourierPR** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:53 am

GCANE wrote:06Z GFS has something spinning up just west of the Keys

Isn't that the system progged to develop in the Sw Caribbean?

hurricanehunter69 · #6614 Postby **hurricanehunter69** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:45 am

Wow, 1st major Hurricane of the season comin out of the W Carb. ? Right around the minnie peak, and on a NW heading too...? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... imageSize=

Hurricaneman · #6615 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:05 am

hurricanehunter69 wrote:Wow, 1st major Hurricane of the season comin out of the W Carb. ? Right around the minnie peak, and on a NW heading too...? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... imageSize=

starts development at 228hrs which is still in truncation which is still outside the range where I would start looking at it but this is a climatological favorable area this time of year so who knows

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

#6616 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 10:35 am

I know it's lala land, but I forgot what a major cane looks like in the models, so I thought it would be worth posting... Looks like if this happened it would move towards Florida from that position...

Hammy · #6617 Postby **Hammy** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:56 am

Didn't last long, GFS is back to showing only a few weak lows at 384 hours.

hurricanes1234 · #6618 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:04 pm

Hammy wrote:Didn't last long, GFS is back to showing only a few weak lows at 384 hours.

As usual.

#6619 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:24 am

I have noticed that GFS has been showing a MDR development in recent runs and is below 200 hours.

#6620 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Oct 04, 2013 7:34 am

I would be surprised to see development in the MDR this time of the year, that area should be closed for business already.

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