Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: (Is Invest 97L)

[Hurricaneman]

this area looks real interesting, may need to be watched as it looks pretty good at the moment

[floridasun78]

but could be heading toward central America soon that will kill it

[Hurricaneman]

but could be heading toward central America soon that will kill it

Theres no indication of that happening, most of the models move this towards the Bahamas in the mid range

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi tweeted that it will move north.

[LaBreeze]

but could be heading toward central America soon that will kill it

This scenario would make the most sense for the season we've had so far this year.

[TheStormExpert]

NWS Office in Miami mentions this disturbed area in their latest forecast discussion.

THE GFS INDICATES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[ronjon]

Both the 12z and 18z GFS models bring low pressure northward over w Cuba and off the SW coast of florida to tampa. While weak in the global models, we'll have to watch this one for a conus landfall in 5-6 days.

[SFLcane]

Not much from the models just yet but if your looking for impacts Oct is prime for florida.

[AJC3]

The global models suggest that the synoptic pattern will set up for a Florida TC threat.

The last couple runs of GFS have trended toward the ECM solution of Caribbean moisture/energy coming farther west and emerging into the eastern GOMEX. The mid/upper trough axis forecast to develop by days 4-5 (early to middle part of next week) looks as if it just might set up far enough west, with downstream ridging to its east, to prevent this area from escaping out underneath south Florida and NE out through the Bahamas.

Of course, the standard disclaimer/caveat applies about things changing from 5-6 days out to the actual event (or non-event), however (remember, this is Mr. Anti-hype talking here)...this one bears watching IMHO.

[WeatherEmperor]

Looks like the 00Z Gfs has what appears to be a tropical storm making landfall near Tampa @156hrs..

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 0z GFS has completely split from previous runs' solutions of nothing noteworthy developing and instead shows a 994mb strong tropical storm headed northeast towards Florida by 141 hours:



But this is 2013.

[Hurricaneman]

This is something that just gives me the Caribbean monster feeling, but a good possible analog would be Irene in 1999 where it was a very large circulation that hit around Cape Sable as an 80mph hurricane, just food for thought

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[AJC3]

...aaaaand the 00Z ECM trends weaker and much farther west.

[jlauderdal]

...aaaaand the 00Z ECM trends weaker and much farther west.

Bear Watch Update

GFS:


ECM

[weatherwindow]

...aaaaand the 00Z ECM trends weaker and much farther west.

Bear Watch Update

GFS:


ECM

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _watl.html

Good morning, J...love it..doesnt this just typify this season ...perhaps, just perhaps, this season will finally follow protocol and give us a climatologically "normal" system to track. The setup, suggested by the 00Z GFS/CMC, is certainly the classic late Sept/early to mid Oct pattern for tropical cyclogenesis. Following the GFS lead, that solution would most like keep the bulk of the energy further east in the classic corridor between Swan Island and the Caymans. Again per the GFS and mentioned by the NHC, the broad low in the SW Carib would most likely appear in the 48-72 hour timeframe with an incipient center east of Cape Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua at about the 60hr mark. IMHO, if the above evolution verifies, we will most likely see a Fla TC threat. A more western evolution in the Bay of Honduras would, IMHO, most likely bury another system in the Bay of Campeche along the lines of the 00Z ECM..Grtz from KW, Rich

The reasoning above may or may not be valid and is not supported by any official organization or storm2k. For official advices please consult the NWS, the NHC or local emergency management.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE
THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[cycloneye]

From Miami NWS:

BY TUESDAY A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF CUBA IS STILL EXPECTED
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHWEST NEARING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS IT DOES...A MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE SHIELD WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE
FROM THIS POINT ONWARD WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATION OF THE
WAVE INTO A 1006 MB LOW BRINGING IT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
THEN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEAKER MOVING IT INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
BETTER AGREEMENT.


From Key West NWS:

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INDICATIONS ARE CONTINUING FOR A
SIGNIFICANTLY WETTER AND BREEZIER PERIOD OWING TO VARIOUS MODELS
MOVEMENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ON MONDAY AND EVENTUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...PASSING TO
THE WEST OF KEYS LATITUDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...APPROACHING
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SINCE THERE IS NO SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ATTM...WILL CONTINUE TO BE SKEPTICAL
OF INCREASING RAIN AND WIND CHANCES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD EVEN
THOUGH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DUE SHOW SOME KIND OF SYSTEM MOVING
BY TO THE WEST. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...40%...FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK PERIODS...ALSO WITH NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE
INCREASED SHORTLY IF GREATER CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO DEMONSTRATED
WITH THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUN CYCLES.

[TampaFl]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2013

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
WEAK U/L TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM THE MAIN U/L FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE U.S. U/L RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY ALLOW DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTH
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
RANGE AS SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH
OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WILL CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARD A WEAKER SYSTEM
AS 28/00 GFS HAS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM AND 27/12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH
WEAKER SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
STRONG DYNAMIC LIFT OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL GENERATE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN FALL EACH DAY...AND GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN THAT
HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE PAST WEEK THE THREAT OF
FLOODING WOULD BE HIGH. SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING
IN ITS WAKE AS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A L/W TROUGH WHICH WILL FINALLY DRY THE
REGION OUT OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

[NDG]

Yet another GFS versus ECMWF showdown, which one will be right.
Is not like either of them have been that great this year.