2013 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Conditions are expected to become more favorable across the West Pacific, where there is high confidence of one or more TCs forming during Week-1. The high-confidence shape encompasses an area where two TCs are possible. There is high confidence that a TC will develop earlier in the week across the western part of the shaded area, while there is moderate confidence of a second TC developing later in the week farther south and east in the shaded area.

For Week-2 the only area of enhanced odds for TC development is across parts of the West Pacific. The expected evolution of the MJO is generally supportive of development in this region.

Here we go!

[RL3AO]

We are approaching one month without a typhoon (JMA), which IMO is quite remarkable considering that period is August 14 to September 11.

[euro6208]

We are approaching one month without a typhoon (JMA), which IMO is quite remarkable considering that period is August 14 to September 11.

very slow over here but a slow season here is an average/above average season over there in the atlantic/epac...

[Typhoon Hunter]

Per Ryan Maue's site W Pac ACE is currently just 39% of what it should be right now. Extremely slow season but things are about to ramp up considerably if the models are to be believed!

[Typhoon Hunter]

Models continue to paint a very active spelling coming up, might help bump up the ACE values considerably. Once Man-yi is out of the way all the major models spin up Usagi in its wake and track it west or WNW to threat Taiwan and the Ryuku islands. I admit I was wrong and tricked into thinking Manyi would be a major player, maybe it's just the starter before the real main course!

[euro6208]

we may potentially witness 3 or 4 more storms before this month ends...


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i was right...we are at 4 storms

[euro6208]

For Week-1, TC formation is favored across parts of the West Pacific basin. High confidence is indicated near 20N, 140E, while a disturbance just east of Vietnam could develop before moving over land at the very beginning of the period. Late in Week-1 there is moderate confidence for development east of the Philippines.

For Week-2 the only area of enhanced odds for TC development is across parts of the West Pacific and South China Sea. The expected evolution of the MJO is generally supportive of development in this region.

[Extratropical94]

With Usagi now officially a typhoon, the current numbers look like this (super typhoon #s are unoffical):

2013 >> 31 TD/19 TS/3 TY/1 STY

Here's some comparison to other seasons at September 18th:

2012 >> 25 TD/16 TS/10 TY/2 STY

2011 >> 29 TD/16 TS/6 TY/3 STY

2010 >> 19 TD/12 TS/4 TY/0 STY

2009 >> 25 TD/15 TS/7 TY/1 STY

So, by looking at the numbers, TD and TS formation is actually quite frequent compared to the last years. Still, we have had far less typhoons this year than in a normal season. That's 2013, lots of weak storms that struggle to get going (of course, Usagi might be a rare exception).

[dexterlabio]

^I'm not sure if there's only one official STY in 2009, but I'm sure there is one STY in 2010 which was Megi. It will be interesting if all official typhoons forming this season will become Cat3 and above, despite the low number.

[Extratropical94]

^I'm not sure if there's only one official STY in 2009, but I'm sure there is one STY in 2010 which was Megi. It will be interesting if all official typhoons forming this season will become Cat3 and above, despite the low number.

There were 5 super typhoons in 2009, but only one before September 18 (Choi-wan). The numbers above represent the seasonal numbers at September 18, not counting any systems that formed after that date.

[dexterlabio]

Oh my bad, I missed that. Looks like a quantity over quality season this time in the WPAC...

[euro6208]

long range euro hinting at a potentially strong typhoon in the SCS!

[euro6208]

Basin Name Current Wind Max Wind ACE
17W USAGI 80 140 23.165

Usagi contributed over 23 ACE for this season....pretty impressive...


Current Year to Date:

88.88

Normal Yearly ACE

302

Year to Date

178

[euro6208]

Latest euro run still has a rapidly intensifying typhoon in the SCS hitting vietnam...

[euro6208]

large storm east of the philippines...

[euro6208]

MJO over the western pacific but little to no movement...we could see a very active pattern setting up to the already active monsoon trough...

[euro6208]

September 29, 2013 overall activity...

looks very much like a nina event with formations closer to the philippines...

19 Tropical Storms
8 Typhoons
3 Major Typhoons
-two category 4
-one category 5

*Including Wutip

[Meow]

We need an official map.



21 tropical storms
13 severe tropical storms
4 typhoons

[Typhoon Hunter]

Well models are continuing to show a very storm picture in Wpac over next two weeks, in line with that MJO forecast. On top of Wutip we have 95W which most models are spinning up into a significant system, and then GFS is keen to develop another SCS storm in Wutip's wake. Wpac playing ACE catch up!

[euro6208]

21st Tropical Cyclone of the season has formed.

We might see the formation of our 22nd TC later today.

Exciting days ahead!