Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: (Is Invest 97L)

boca · #62 Postby **boca** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:14 pm

It looks like the whole area is lifting up towards Haiti but I know its not the case til the low actually forms.

floridasun78 · #63 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:17 pm

boca wrote:It looks like the whole area is lifting up towards Haiti but I know its not the case til the low actually forms.

but nhc donot have moving north

Hurricaneman · #64 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:19 pm

boca wrote:It looks like the whole area is lifting up towards Haiti but I know its not the case til the low actually forms.

shear is causing that illusion, it pretty much stationary and if anything is forming it would be at 77.5W 13.9N

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

boca · #65 Postby **boca** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:23 pm

Yes the NHC has the area moving NW but the shear is giving this that illusion like you pointed out.

#66 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:24 pm

I'd estimate 50% chance within 5 days, a little higher JUST beyond 5 days. Probably a weak TS into SW Florida late this coming week. Rather deep trof digging into NW Gulf late next week will prevent any movement toward the NW Gulf. Increased shear ahead of the trof/front will limit intensification in the Gulf.

floridasun78 · #67 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:28 pm

wx working late on weekend

#68 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 6:33 pm

10% / 30% at 8 PM.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

#69 Postby **AdamFirst** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:27 pm

I admit I was surprised to see this status while browsing Facebook earlier...I pretty much had given up on this season.

blp · #70 Postby **blp** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 7:35 pm

Forgot to include the NAM. Good thing this forecast to stay weak because it will have plenty of time over untapped waters.

Hurricane Alexis · #71 Postby **Hurricane Alexis** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:13 pm

AdamFirst wrote:I admit I was surprised to see this status while browsing Facebook earlier...I pretty much had given up on this season.

http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/8017/43eg.jpg

That first comment on the right is ridiculous...

#72 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:33 pm

Off-Topic= To let know the members that Invest 96L has been renumbered if you are interested in that system.

#73 Postby **AtlanticWind** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:42 pm

NHC IS MONITORING AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS MAY MOVE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NHC GIVES 30%
TC DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY NEXT 5-DAYS. MODELS ARE ALL OVER WITH
THIS. GFS DEVELOPS THIS INTO A TROPICAL STORM, TRACKING IT
ACROSS FL, BUT THIS MAY BE SUFFERING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.
ECWMF KEEPS THIS MUCH WEAKER AND IN THE GULF WHILE EVENTUALLY
BEING STRUNG OUT AND ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. SO A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THIS IS SIMPLY A CASE OF MONITORING TO SEE IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON BOTH
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK. HISTORY TELLS US THAT OCTOBER, RIGHT
AROUND THE CORNER, IS THE PEAK MONTH OF TROPICAL CYCLONES
IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA. /GREGORIA

From NWS Miami

blp · #74 Postby **blp** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:46 pm

Ok I need stir up more interest on this thread so here it goes. Check out the FIM it has gone nuts.

floridasun78 · #75 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:46 pm

when if form.when will this be near florida?

#76 Postby **JtSmarts** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:50 pm

floridasun78 wrote:when if form.when will this be near florida?

It Looks like that FIM run is showing late next Saturday (Oct 5)/Early Sunday (Oct 6).

floridasun78 · #77 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:54 pm

wow not good i have ticket that weekend to go see my team dolphins play at home let see what happen

floridasun78 · #78 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:54 pm

JtSmarts wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:when if form.when will this be near florida?

It Looks like that FIM run is showing late next Saturday (Oct 5)/Early Sunday (Oct 6).

ty

'CaneFreak · #79 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 9:01 pm

ROFLOL...gone nuts huh? You call a 45 mph TS gone nuts? You guys are a riot. :lol:

blp wrote:Ok I need stir up more interest on this thread so here it goes. Check out the FIM it has gone nuts.

http://imageshack.us/a/img266/6396/eeu5.jpg

#80 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Sep 28, 2013 9:04 pm

wonder if Marco 1990 would be a good analogue

Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: (Is Invest 97L)

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

Re: Area of disturbed weather in SW Caribbean: 10% / 30%

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