ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Models
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962013_al112013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309290124
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962013_al112013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309290124
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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Invest 96L has taken advantage of diurnal maximum to push it over the threshold to tropical depression status. The good news for it is that models indicate the development of an anticyclone overhead throughout the day tomorrow; this should lower shear and give it a chance to intensify. After that, it appears that an upper-level trough should pass to its north. It may impart some modest shear -- not destructive -- atop the system. Depending on positioning though, it may also ventilate the storm. This was one of the difficulties of forecasting Kirk and Michael last year.
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Re:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:Invest 96L has taken advantage of diurnal maximum to push it over the threshold to tropical depression status. The good news for it is that models indicate the development of an anticyclone overhead throughout the day tomorrow; this should lower shear and give it a chance to intensify. After that, it appears that an upper-level trough should pass to its north. It may impart some modest shear -- not destructive -- atop the system. Depending on positioning though, it may also ventilate the storm. This was one of the difficulties of forecasting Kirk and Michael last year.
Good assessment. And a lot of us hope you are right because we need this for the storm2k pool, lol.

Last edited by ozonepete on Sat Sep 28, 2013 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 70% / 80%
cycloneye wrote:BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al962013_al112013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201309290124
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
So we have a TD, right Luis?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 70% / 80%
ozonepete wrote:cycloneye wrote:[b][size=150]BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
So we have a TD, right Luis?
All indications are is going to be a TD.
AL, 11, 2013092900, , BEST, 0, 249N, 504W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion - 70% / 80%
cycloneye wrote:ozonepete wrote:cycloneye wrote:[size=150]BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
So we have a TD, right Luis?
All indications are is going to be a TD.
AL, 11, 2013092900, , BEST, 0, 249N, 504W, 30, 1010, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, [b]ELEVEN, M
And I should have added it sure likes like one. It's over really good SST with no mid-level dry air around and the high shear is all staying just enough to the west.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Could this be a surprise shocker like Michael, or just fade away gracefully?
You never know, right? Although none of the models I saw make it a hurricane so far. Let's see what the NHC says.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 50.2W
ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
Look at this loop.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 50.2W
ABOUT 960 MI...1540 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
Look at this loop.

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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Should peak as a 45 mph storm according to the first discussion. However, the thing is that Michael's forecast was very similar to this at first, but it managed to become a Category 3. We'll probably have a better insight to this tomorrow morning.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:Any ASCAT or other passes lately?
I am not sure, but by the current satellite presentation, it doesn't look very good to me. Sheared apart and losing convection. Best Track still has it as a 30 knot tropical depression.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Exactly what I posted above is in the discussion!
Yet another system is going through 'ULL bullets'. Will this be another one that weakens unexpectedly in the face of underestimated wind shear like Humberto in its second phase?
THE DEPRESSION HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING.
Yet another system is going through 'ULL bullets'. Will this be another one that weakens unexpectedly in the face of underestimated wind shear like Humberto in its second phase?
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Still as TD 11 per 18z Best Track.
AL, 11, 2013092918, , BEST, 0, 268N, 480W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M
AL, 11, 2013092918, , BEST, 0, 268N, 480W, 30, 1010, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 90, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, M
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LLC seems to be moving under the convection as shear wanes ever so slowly. Probably will have Jerry at 11pm if trends persist.
12z GFS jumped off-board with intensification over the next 5 days, but both the LGEM and SHIPS jumped on; both show a strong TS in 120 hours.
Regardless, it's probably not a threat to land, though it might get close to the Azores.
12z GFS jumped off-board with intensification over the next 5 days, but both the LGEM and SHIPS jumped on; both show a strong TS in 120 hours.
Regardless, it's probably not a threat to land, though it might get close to the Azores.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS
POORLY-ORGANIZED AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED
EARLIER TODAY. MORE RECENTLY...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION
OBSCURED THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...
HOWEVER...THAT THE LATEST HWRF AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE
SYSTEM PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO
THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.
In my opinion, nearly all indications point to a weak and disorganised storm being affected by persistent shear, at least for the next day or so. Even though the intensity is of low confidence, I still don't see this passing 50 or 60 mph at most, unless of course, conditions become a lot better suddenly, which, given the trends of this season, seems highly unlikely to me.
Please note that this is only my ameteur opinion.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
POORLY-ORGANIZED AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG SHEAR OVER THE
CYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED
EARLIER TODAY. MORE RECENTLY...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION
OBSCURED THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL
FOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...
HOWEVER...THAT THE LATEST HWRF AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE
SYSTEM PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO
THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.
In my opinion, nearly all indications point to a weak and disorganised storm being affected by persistent shear, at least for the next day or so. Even though the intensity is of low confidence, I still don't see this passing 50 or 60 mph at most, unless of course, conditions become a lot better suddenly, which, given the trends of this season, seems highly unlikely to me.
Please note that this is only my ameteur opinion.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The 11L link has gone from the NRL TC page. Upgrade to Jerry in next advisory.
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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I'm not too convinced this is Jerry just yet, though.
Will have further insight when the 0z Best Track arrives.

Elongated and quite sheared.

Will have further insight when the 0z Best Track arrives.

Elongated and quite sheared.

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Re: ATL: ELEVEN - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Still a TD.
AL, 11, 2013093000, , BEST, 0, 269N, 473W, 30, 1010, TD
AL, 11, 2013093000, , BEST, 0, 269N, 473W, 30, 1010, TD
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