ATL: KAREN - Models

[supercane4867]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972013 09/29/13 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 32 36 38 41 43 44 41
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 26 32 36 38 35 41 42 39
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 21 23 22 26 28 29
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 22 21 20 21 21 8 14 12 18 16 23 21 27
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 1 -2 -1 -8 -3 0 -4 0 -1 1
SHEAR DIR 254 263 253 242 251 229 241 225 235 222 233 239 247
SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 155 157 163 161 156 156 155 153 152 153
ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 143 145 147 152 150 142 142 140 136 134 132
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 71 70 67 64 61 54 52 53 54 57 55 57 52
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 9
850 MB ENV VOR 19 17 24 23 15 12 4 -6 -13 -9 -25 -29 -77
200 MB DIV 93 96 65 33 3 13 35 40 47 46 56 26 23
700-850 TADV 2 3 7 4 6 5 1 0 0 1 4 4 8
LAND (KM) 311 244 172 105 50 30 206 155 78 -16 171 351 355
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.5 22.6 23.9 25.3 26.6
LONG(DEG W) 76.0 76.4 76.8 77.2 77.5 78.5 79.7 81.0 82.2 83.6 84.9 85.8 86.3
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 6
HEAT CONTENT 39 40 48 58 71 27 65 58 62 115 80 32 25

[bamajammer4eva]

Tropicals



Latest models @ 120 Hrs. Might be a low in the gulf if unusual things happen (for 2013)

GFS



Canadian



Navgem



Euro (BOC)

[NDG]

It makes you wonder if it will do much on intensity when the usual super aggressive SHIPS does not do much with it.

[bamajammer4eva]

It makes you wonder if it will do much on intensity when the usual super aggressive SHIPS does not do much with it.

Hmmm but when these models showed Cat 2+ the invests did nothing so maybe they are doing an opposite thing this year?

[jlauderdal]

It makes you wonder if it will do much on intensity when the usual super aggressive SHIPS does not do much with it.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 1e3c2d.jpg

The trough coming in is really going to damper down any intensification chances in the longer term so no surprise the models aren't showing anything very strong..the setup isnt there

[Wx_Warrior]

0z EURO 192H



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[ninel conde]

that euro pic and the 0z and 06z GFS illustrate why an east coast trof kills west carib/gom development, or at least allows only strung out messes. need a strong high parked over new england for energy to bundle.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291247
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1247 UTC SUN SEP 29 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130929 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130929 1200 130930 0000 130930 1200 131001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 76.6W 14.9N 78.2W 15.8N 79.7W 16.7N 81.1W
BAMD 13.8N 76.6W 15.1N 76.9W 16.3N 77.6W 17.6N 78.8W
BAMM 13.8N 76.6W 14.9N 77.5W 15.9N 78.6W 16.8N 79.9W
LBAR 13.8N 76.6W 15.0N 77.1W 16.7N 77.8W 18.7N 78.3W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 32KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
131001 1200 131002 1200 131003 1200 131004 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.4N 82.4W 18.5N 85.4W 19.9N 88.9W 21.7N 92.2W
BAMD 18.9N 80.2W 20.8N 82.8W 23.7N 85.2W 26.5N 85.4W
BAMM 17.7N 81.3W 18.8N 84.4W 20.4N 88.0W 22.5N 91.1W
LBAR 20.7N 78.7W 24.2N 79.4W 27.2N 79.3W 29.0N 76.2W
SHIP 36KTS 44KTS 47KTS 43KTS
DSHP 36KTS 44KTS 38KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 76.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 13.4N LONM12 = 75.8W DIRM12 = 301DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 75.1W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ROCK]

06Z NAVGEM still into Texas as nothing more than a weak low....looks like it wont have much to it but something to watch.

[N2FSU]

12z tropicals:

[LaBreeze]

06Z NAVGEM still into Texas as nothing more than a weak low....looks like it wont have much to it but something to watch.

If it would take this route, it would have a really hard time fighting all of the dry air that would be in place over most of the northern and western GOM, don't you think?

[HurricaneTracker2031]

12z tropicals:

Very spread out models right now...

[Dean4Storms]

ECM drives it over to the BOC!

[N2FSU]

18z tropicals:

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I haven't looked at any models this morning but did read our local nws morning discussion.I mentioned yesterday how it wouldn't surprise me if the models started backing off on the strength of the next cold front and this disturbance was able to move further west and north and it seems they are starting to show this. Anyway here is the long term discussion about 97L for SE LA


LONG TERM...
THINGS GET INTERESTING GOING INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BUT
MODELS ARE IN AT LEAST FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SCENARIO.
BOTH SHOW A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND AT
THE SAME TIME A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING IN THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS ARE THE STRENGTH OF
THE FRONT AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROPICAL FEATURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER FRONT WITH THE TROPICAL FEATURE
MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER AND THE BROAD LOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF HAS A STRONGER FRONT AND THE
TROPICAL FEATURE FURTHER WEST AND JUST OFF THE COAST AT THE SAME
TIME SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO THERE STILL IS SOME ISSUES WITH THE
FORECAST IN THE LONG RANGE.

[Dean4Storms]

Models have shifted toward an upper Gulf Coast situation with whatever is there.

[LaBreeze]

Models have shifted toward an upper Gulf Coast situation with whatever is there.

Upper meaning upper Florida peninsula/panhandle?

[cycloneye]

12z tracks.

[Dean4Storms]

Models have shifted toward an upper Gulf Coast situation with whatever is there.

Upper meaning upper Florida peninsula/panhandle?

ECM...LA then eastward. GFS....FL Panhandle then eastward. GGEM.... loop in eastern Gulf then toward Cedar Key.

[Stormcenter]

Can you please post the graphics for the lastest ECM model run? Thanks!

Models have shifted toward an upper Gulf Coast situation with whatever is there.

Upper meaning upper Florida peninsula/panhandle?

ECM...LA then eastward. GFS....FL Panhandle then eastward. GGEM.... loop in eastern Gulf then toward Cedar Key.