WPAC: FITOW - Tropical Storm

[supercane4867]

9.7N 136.0E

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.2N
135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 136.6E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTERLY WIND BURST. A 271946Z SSMIS IMAGE INDICATES STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS
WITH WEAK BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 271210Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 10 TO 15
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH STRONG WESTERLIES OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP
INDICATE WESTERLY SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH AN
SLP NEAR 1006.4 MB AND A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF ABOUT 3 MB. DYNAMIC
MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N
136.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 136.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LINEAR
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTERLY
WIND BURST. A 272334Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES CONVECTION
DISPLACED ALONG THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS WITH OVERALL POOR LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE. A 280044Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE OF A HIGHLY ELONGATED LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC MODELS
CURRENTLY DEPICT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

[img][/img]


WTPN21 PGTW 282330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 134.2E TO 14.8N 137.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
282300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
134.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.2N
136.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 205 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE; HOWEVER, A
282024Z TRMM IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROAD
LLCC. RECENT SURFACE WINDS AT KOROR SHOW SUSTAINED WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THE RECENT SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-
LEVEL GRADIENT WESTERLY WINDS OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS (500-2500 FEET),
INDICATIVE OF THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ENVIRONMENT. OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT WITH A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
292330Z.//
NNNN

[Grifforzer]

Sea East Of The Philippines

** WTPQ22 RJTD 290600 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 10.3N 135.0E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 11.2N 134.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.1N
134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 262 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OF THE LLCC. A RECENT 290024Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS
ELONGATED WITH STRONGER 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY AND WEAKER 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) CURRENTLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH

Dvorak at 1.5...upgrade likely later today...

[hurricanes1234]

Does this look like it'll be a strong typhoon? Where will it affect?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Model guidance suggests this could become a strong typhoon. There is a split in the potential track with GFS taking this north and then NNE/NE towards Tokyo or east of. ECMWF tracks it into Kyushu as a strong typhoon whilst UKMET, NAVGEM and CMC suggest it could make a hard turn to the left after tracking north.

[stormkite]

TD
Issued at 10:30 UTC, 30 September 2013

<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N13°05'(13.1°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 01/09 UTC>


Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E133°00'(133.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)





The MTSAT image below was captured at 19:03 Hong Kong Time on 30 Sep 2013

[Extratropical94]

JTWC upgraded it to Tropical Depression 22W

WTPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292321Z SEP 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.0N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.8N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.7N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.3N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 133.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336
NM NORTHWARD OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 292321Z SEP 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 292330). REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (SEPAT)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Dave C]

Reminds me a lot of Isabel when it formed quickly in the east atlantic. Eyelike feature being quickly surronded by convection, could quickly move up through tropical storm intensity.

[euro6208]

JTWC upgraded it to Tropical Depression 22W

WTPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/292321Z SEP 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 133.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 133.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 14.0N 133.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.4N 133.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 16.8N 133.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 18.5N 133.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 21.5N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 23.7N 134.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 26.3N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 133.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336
NM NORTHWARD OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI 292321Z SEP 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21
PGTW 292330). REFER TO TYPHOON 20W (WUTIP) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (SEPAT)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

First Prognostic Reasoning for our 22nd TC of the year...

WDPN33 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 336
NM NORTHWARD OF KOROR, PALAU HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPORVED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERIES WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. A 300519Z TRMM
37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED CENTER. A 300312Z OSCAT PASS
ADDITIONALLY SHOWS CONSOLIDATION AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME MORE
DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI LOOP AND THE
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED UPON THE OSCAT PASS AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM RJTD AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 22W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
RIDGE (NER) LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH ALONG THE NER
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR GENERAL INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 48,
THROUGH THE NEXT 96 HOURS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE PROPAGATING OVER
JAPAN, WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN
SOUTH OF JAPAN AND BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUNCE OF TD 22W.
THIS SHIFT OF STEERING INFLUENCE WILL CAUSE TD 22W TO BEGIN TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS AT TAU
96, TD 22W WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
START TO DECREASE AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE
TROUGH OVER JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY SPREAD THROUGH
THE FORECAST WITH LARGE VARIANCES IN THE NORTHWEST TURN AND TRACK
SPEEDS. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN


this will be a very very interesting storm to watch!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A TS from JMA:
TS 1323 (FITOW)
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 30 September 2013

<Analyses at 30/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°25'(13.4°)
E132°20'(132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S330km(180NM)
N280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E132°20'(132.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E132°00'(132.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N21°20'(21.3°)
E132°10'(132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL480km(260NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 398NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES THAT IS STARTING TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC.
A 300920Z SSMIS 37GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE EIR LOOP AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS
BASED UPON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 22W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING GENERALLY
NORTH AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH ALONG THE NER
THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
GOOD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW
FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 36,
THROUGH THE NEXT 96 HOURS. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
WIDELY SPREAD THROUGH TAU 72 ALTHOUGH GFS, JGSM, THE JAPANESE
ENSEMBLE AND NAVGEM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. EGRR AND ECMWF CONTINUE
TO BE THE WESTERN OUTLIERS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE EARLY TAUS TO FAVOR THE
GROUPING TO THE EAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE PROPAGATING OVER
JAPAN, WHICH WILL ALLOW A LOBE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD IN
SOUTH OF JAPAN AND BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING INFLUENCE OF TD 22W.
THIS SHIFT OF STEERING INFLUENCE WILL CAUSE TD 22W TO BEGIN TO TRACK
TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS AT TAU
96, TD 22W WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS OCEAN PARAMETERS START TO
DECREASE AND VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OVER
JAPAN. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE WIDELY SPREAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A 500NM SPREAD AT TAU 120 AS GFS IS TO THE NORTH AND
EGRR TO THE SOUTH. DUE TO THIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO FAVOR THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED GROUPING. OVERALL, DUE TO THE LARGE VARIANCES IN THE
MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

[hurricanes1234]

Latest forecast shows a peak of 105 knots, but I won't be overly surprised if it were to make it to a Category 4 or higher. This is definitely poised to intensify. WPAC is making up for all the lost ACE numbers worldwide.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[euro6208]

WDPN33 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FITOW)
WARNING NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (FITOW), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, HAS TRACKED NORTHWEST AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATES CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE BECOMING ESPECIALLY VIGOROUS. ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED,
AND THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING.
THE 301200Z PGTW UPPER TROPOSPHERIC STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOME
TROUGHING AND A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE STORM THAT
HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM,
BUT THE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION VERIFIES THAT ITS INFLUENCE IS WANING.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RISING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND CONSOLIDATION AND DEEPENING OF CONVECTION OBSERVED IN A MOSAIC
OF MICROWAVE IMAGES. A 301249Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS INDICATES THE
PRESENCE OF A SURGE IN THE WESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 22W WILL SUSTAIN A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72
HOURS. BOTH THE STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND DEEP-LAYER MEAN MODELS SHOW
THAT A WELL-DEVELOPED NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) EXTENDING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA WILL ACT AS THE STEERING FORCE FOR THE
STORM AND DRIVE IT STEADILY POLEWARD. THE POLEWARD TRACK WILL TAKE
THE STORM THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST LOOKS FOR
DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH-SIDE OF THE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT PROFILES DO SHOW SOME LIMITATIONS, AND ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE POLEWARD OF THE STORM IS EASING, IT IS STILL
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72 AND NEAR THE 23RD LATITUDE, THE STEERING FORCE
WILL SHIFT FROM THE NER TO THE STR. MODEL GUIDANCE, INCLUDING
ENSEMBLES AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU
72, WHICH IS THE POINT WHERE THE STEERING INFLUENCE SWITCHES. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT IN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AS THE STORM LINKS WITH SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH JAPAN, BUT AFTER TAU 96, RISING VWS AND FALLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.
CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD BUT THERE ARE SOME EXTREME AND
INCOHERENT OUTLIERS SKEWING THE CONSENSUS TOO FAR WESTWARD. THUS THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS EAST OF CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
AND THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. TRACK CONFIDENCE
WILL NOT LIKELY IMPROVE UNTIL THE HAND-OFF BETWEEN THE STEERING
MECHANISMS PLAYS OUT.//
NNNN

[RL3AO]

Has potential to be one of those storms that goes 40 knots over forecasted intensity in 72 hours.

[euro6208]

[Typhoon Hunter]

Has potential to be one of those storms that goes 40 knots over forecasted intensity in 72 hours.

Given the time of year and location I'm inclined to agree with you!

[stormkite]

JMA
TS 1323 (FITOW)
Issued at 01:00 UTC, 1 October 2013

<Analyses at 01/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°10'(14.2°)
E132°00'(132.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more S280km(150NM)
N220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 02/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°10'(17.2°)