ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

It looks like a T3.5 to me - fully closed with a low-end eye for 4.0, drop 0.5 for weak convection.

[ozonepete]

It looks like a T3.5 to me - fully closed with a low-end eye for 4.0, drop 0.5 for weak convection.

Yeah, at least. Also now that we can see the center we can follow the motion and it looks like it is starting the clockwise loop.

[hurricanes1234]

Pulling a Michael 2012 anybody?

By the way, it looks to be making a run at annular or subtropical status.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

It looks like a T3.5 to me - fully closed with a low-end eye for 4.0, drop 0.5 for weak convection.

Yeah, at least. Also now that we can see the center we can follow the motion and it looks like it is starting the clockwise loop.

Look what we have at microwave.

[CrazyC83]

Yeah this calls for a Special Advisory.

[HURAKAN]

I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

Maybe. We have to remember that it's diurnal minimum in the East Atlantic though.

[Hammy]

Given the appearance and the last OSCAT pass, I would personally say this is probably about 45kts right now at least. It looks too well organized to only be 35kt.

[RL3AO]

I'd just use the MET of T3.0 (if you said normal deepening).

[hurricanes1234]

This has to be more than 40 mph. The only way I see it not being stronger than 40 mph is if it is subtropical, which it is currently showing some characteristics of.



EDIT: Off-topic, but I am now a Category 3! This is my 800th post!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

Maybe. We have to remember that it's diurnal maximum in the East Atlantic though.

We know you meant diurnal minimum.

[ozonepete]

I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

Hey there Sandy. But here is the mid and hi water vapor and SAL. Does not look like dry air is a problem. I would agree with TX13 that it's more likely DMIN right now. There are some interesting dynamics going on in there for sure though.

Mid-level Water Vapor:


High level Water Vapor:


SAL:

[CrazyC83]

All things considered, I would put it at 50 kt right now.

[ozonepete]

This has to be more than 40 mph. The only way I see it not being stronger than 40 mph is if it is subtropical, which it is currently showing some characteristics of.

EDIT: Off-topic, but I am now a Category 3! This is my 800th post!

First of all, congrats on your 800th.

And although it might look a little subtropical to you, it is not at all. This is over very warm SSTs with completely tropical air surrounding it. It has no fronts attached and is moving SE further into the tropical air. It's interesting form is due to some pretty complex dynamics including the fact that it basically merged with or absorbed a mid to upper level low earlier today.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think Jerry has ingested some dry air. Convection keeps weakening. The center on the microwave image is likely to be the mid-level center as Jerry is likely to be tilted due to the shear.

Maybe. We have to remember that it's diurnal maximum in the East Atlantic though.

We know you meant diurnal minimum.

Yeah it was a typo...thanks.

The SHIPS and LGEM have been bullish with this system since yesterday, bringing it up to strong tropical storm status by 120 hours. Maybe they're on to something.

[ozonepete]

The SHIPS and LGEM have been bullish with this system since yesterday, bringing it up to strong tropical storm status by 120 hours. Maybe they're on to something.

Well they might be given the fact that it's dropping southward toward even warmer water and moving into a lower shear environment as well. In addition, what little dry air exists is only moderately dry and is way off to the southeast; it's forecast path doesn't imply that it will move into that area since it will be executing a clockwise loop.

[hurricanes1234]

This has to be more than 40 mph. The only way I see it not being stronger than 40 mph is if it is subtropical, which it is currently showing some characteristics of.

EDIT: Off-topic, but I am now a Category 3! This is my 800th post!

First of all, congrats on your 800th.

And although it might look a little subtropical to you, it is not at all. This is over very warm SSTs with completely tropical air surrounding it. It has no fronts attached and is moving SE further into the tropical air. It's interesting form is due to some pretty complex dynamics including the fact that it basically merged with or absorbed a mid to upper level low earlier today.

Thanks!
Still waiting for special advisory.

[hurricanes1234]

Ah ha! Best Track up to 45 knots.

AL, 11, 2013100100, , BEST, 0, 275N, 440W, 45, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 40, 40, 1016, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, ,

[ozonepete]

You can clearly see the low level center and mid level center on this RGB satellite. The greyish areas are low level clouds and brighter whites the mid to higher levels. Clearly the low level center is now situated right in the middle of the mid level circulation. It may look a little ragged but it looks pretty stacked.

[CrazyC83]

It just needs deeper convection...the structure looks very solid now.