A question about the WPAC

[Extratropical94]

Mainly to the mods and/or admins on here,
I've been wondering if there are any rules or official statements concerning the "official" agency responsible for the Western Pacific "typhoon" basin.
Lately I've witnessed that two separate factions seem to coexist on this board, one favoring the JTWC and the other one favoring the JMA.
This is especially visible when it comes to statistics ("4th typhoon has formed"..."no it's still a STS, we only had 2 typhoons this season"...) or naming the threads.
For example, the Pabuk thread had it as a typhoon despite JMA never upgrading it to one.
Same thing with southern hemisphere storm numbering (R, U & F vs. S & P)...

I can understand both sides for various reasons (official agency, higher accuracy, better estimations and forecasts etc.) so I'd like to know if guidelines exist or what everyone thinks about that topic.

[wxman57]

I believe that the JMA is the "official" agency of the West Pacific, though JTWC does issue its own advisories. Both agencies appear to be somewhat lacking in their abilities to determine development and intensification. I recall that earlier this year, the JTWC had two typhoons move within 150NM of each other such that their tropical storm force wind fields would have mixed together. It was like two forecasters each made a forecast for a storm, not taking into account the forecast for the second storm. Both JTWC and JMA are often way late in declaring a depression/storm has formed, and they seem to have a hard time estimating intensity.

[cycloneye]

Since Storm2k was created,we have gone with JMA as the official agency. I know that JMA is slow many times upgrading but we stick with it.

['CaneFreak]

In my opinion, JTWC is the best because they have no specialty in one general area like the JMA was designed specifically for the Tokyo/Japan area. However, the forecasts for neither agency have proven to be all that accurate to be honest. Resources are extremely limited in this part of the world.

[Yellow Evan]

The JMA is the official RMSC for the WPAC, so therefore, official.

[euro6208]

JTWC provides more in depth analysis and uses 1 min average winds just like NHC.

Better and less confusing.

[Alyono]

Lets just say the JTWC performance has not been up to par. . The 2 typhoons within 50 NM of each other was a mistake that even a 13 year old would know wouldn't occur.

I really think the issue with JTWC is lack of forecaster experience due to military rotations. I wonder how they would improve if they went with a permanent forecast staff?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Yup, JMA's the official agency so should be used for titles of threads etc, not sure who titled Pabuk as a typhoon. Remember JTWC is one of many other agencies in this basin along with HKO, CMA, CWB, PAGASA, KMA so I suggest following the local agency closest whenever a storm nears that region ie I always use CWB for tracking Taiwan landfalls. For some reason JTWC seems to be the media's darling agency.

I'll admit if you're not a regular Wpac follower it can be confusing!

[RL3AO]

Storm2k will always use the RSMC for thread titles. Now the JTWC will always be a popular source because its in the form we are most familiar with (1-min winds, 120 hour forecast, ect).

[euro6208]

Yup, JMA's the official agency so should be used for titles of threads etc, not sure who titled Pabuk as a typhoon. Remember JTWC is one of many other agencies in this basin along with HKO, CMA, CWB, PAGASA, KMA so I suggest following the local agency closest whenever a storm nears that region ie I always use CWB for tracking Taiwan landfalls. For some reason JTWC seems to be the media's darling agency.

I'll admit if you're not a regular Wpac follower it can be confusing!

JTWC did the right call in upgrading and was most closest to reality whereas JMA kept calling it a Severe Tropical Storm. Good thing the thread was changed or else they would look really stupid.

[Typhoon Hunter]

I agree Euro, I believe JMA hugely underestimated Pabuk too, but this board has rules for a reason and RL3AO stated them clearly above. The beauty of this forum is we can go on to discuss why we agree or disagree with what the various professional government agencies are saying.

I think the one thing we all agree on though is we need regular damn recon out here as soon as possible!!

[ManilaTC]

I prefer JTWC more often simply beacuse it makes more sense compare to others

CMA HKO PAGASA = amateur agencies

-- Just an observation, JTWC tends to make forecasts "closer" to US Military assets... it was created for the US Military anyway ehehe.
-- Mentioning CMA, HKO, PAGASA and the other agencies as "amateur" is kinda downgrading in the sense that with the agencies having years and years of experience in a region with the most TC's per year, will not consider them amateurish at all. All agencies have their own share of shortcomings.

[ManilaTC]

I agree Euro, I believe JMA hugely underestimated Pabuk too, but this board has rules for a reason and RL3AO stated them clearly above. The beauty of this forum is we can go on to discuss why we agree or disagree with what the various professional government agencies are saying.

I think the one thing we all agree on though is we need regular damn recon out here as soon as possible!!

How about a WestPac wide rally for the return RECON!... or else it will still be known to be a name for a NERF GUN.

[mrbagyo]

How about a WestPac wide rally for the return RECON!... or else it will still be known to be a name for a NERF GUN.

there's a feasibility study for that... just google this >> Tropical Cyclone Reconnaissance over the Western North Pacific with the Global Hawk by RE. Atkinson III

[Meow]

I wonder why many people only prefer JTWC. This center ignores Yutu, underestimates Usagi and Lekima, and it even takes the dying Krosa as a typhoon. JMA follows WMO’s suggestion on 10-minute maximum sustained winds, provides more beautiful maps, and releases best track data much earlier. Many people in this forum never respect the Japan Meteorological Agency which also contributes all information about the 2011 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku.

[euro6208]

I wonder why many people only prefer JTWC. This center ignores Yutu, underestimates Usagi and Lekima, and it even takes the dying Krosa as a typhoon. JMA follows WMO’s suggestion on 10-minute maximum sustained winds, provides more beautiful maps, and releases best track data much earlier. Many people in this forum never respect the Japan Meteorological Agency which also contributes all information about the 2011 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku.

well for one thing, JTWC is more popular because it is what we are most familiar and comfortable with 1-min winds, 120 hour forecast ect just like what residents of the western hemisphere gets with NHC.

JTWC also releases their best track but that is after a comprehensive look at each storm after each season. Much more exciting...

If you think JTWC like you say underestimates Usagi and Lekima at 140 knots, what makes you think JMA did best with their peak at 110/115 knot 10 min average when they struggle more without recon EVERY YEAR?

JMA likes to upgrade low pressure areas into a TD even though data doesn't support it but with stronger storms aka typhoons, they have difficulty as their dvorak scale makes their intensity weaker and weaker even at 8.0 only at 122 knots compared to 170 knots 1 min average by both JTWC and NHC...

EVERY YEAR?

i love earthquakes but isn't related to any tropical weather but there might be a teleconnection but i don't know.

Well i hope one day we have recon here in the WPAC and hope all agencies uses 1 min averages just to be less confusing.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I wonder why many people only prefer JTWC. This center ignores Yutu, underestimates Usagi and Lekima, and it even takes the dying Krosa as a typhoon. JMA follows WMO’s suggestion on 10-minute maximum sustained winds, provides more beautiful maps, and releases best track data much earlier. Many people in this forum never respect the Japan Meteorological Agency which also contributes all information about the 2011 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku.

well for one thing, JTWC is more popular because it is what we are most familiar and comfortable with 1-min winds, 120 hour forecast ect just like what residents of the western hemisphere gets with NHC.

JTWC also releases their best track but that is after a comprehensive look at each storm after each season. Much more exciting...

If you think JTWC like you say underestimates Usagi and Lekima at 140 knots, what makes you think JMA did best with their peak at 110/115 knot 10 min average when they struggle more without recon EVERY YEAR?

JMA likes to upgrade low pressure areas into a TD even though data doesn't support it but with stronger storms aka typhoons, they have difficulty as their dvorak scale makes their intensity weaker and weaker even at 8.0 only at 122 knots compared to 170 knots 1 min average by both JTWC and NHC...

EVERY YEAR?

i love earthquakes but isn't related to any tropical weather but there might be a teleconnection but i don't know.

Well i hope one day we have recon here in the WPAC and hope all agencies uses 1 min averages just to be less confusing.

10-minute winds are more accurate because they tend to be more realistic, and you did not see the DIFFERENCES WITH THE DVORAK SCALE. I am not trying to offend you, but your interpretation. 10-minutes and 1-minute winds have a huge difference, OK?

215 km/h was the CORRECT windspeed for me - Lekima. Usagi looked even like a 195 km/h storm. See

Speaking about low-pressure TD's, can you even recall the time that JTWC DID NOT RECOGNIZE the September 2009 Depression in Vietnam? Vietnam had terrible floods. Do you even remember Bising early this year? It was organized ENOUGH yet not even a TD per the JTWC!

I will take JMA's side.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Speaking about Rumbia... I was wrong before about it being a typhoon. In fact, despite having an eye, its structure wasn't that good for a 10-min typhoon.

But Pabuk really SHOULD be a typhoon!

At least JMA isn't as bad as most agencies...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

euro6208 - You also have to respect the JMA. We are not AMERICANS!

[vbhoutex]

Enough of the childish back and forth concerning the agencies. It must stop now. I am speaking to anyone in this discussion who has disrespectfully expressed negative opinions about these agencies or each other. We do not allow this and it is made clear in our rules. If this continues staff has been instructed to start handing out suspensions as a reminder to abide by the rules of the site.

As previously stated JMA is the official agency of choice for STORM2K. Discussion using JTWC information of course is allowed, but we use JMA as the official agency.