Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

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cycloneye
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Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2013 6:33 am

I know is October but you never know if this wave gets some favorable conditions down the road so let's watch it. Tomas 2010 comes to my mind.

Image

8 AM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N27W TO 15N26W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY THAT REMAINS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF 09N26W. THIS ALONG WITH A BROAD
CYCLONIC CLOUD PRESENTATION S OF 13N IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 25W-
31W.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#2 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 01, 2013 11:14 am

cycloneye wrote:I know is October but you never know if this wave gets some favorable conditions down the road so let's watch it. Tomas 2010 comes to my mind.

http://oi43.tinypic.com/i4fnf4.jpg

8 AM TWD:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N27W TO 15N26W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY THAT REMAINS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IN THE VICINITY OF 09N26W. THIS ALONG WITH A BROAD
CYCLONIC CLOUD PRESENTATION S OF 13N IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 07N-13N BETWEEN 25W-
31W.

Yeah, we should keep an eye on that. Tomas is a good example. :oops: Let's wait and see if the conditions ahead could support something.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#3 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Oct 01, 2013 3:08 pm

I wouldn't believe it just yet. There's something unfavourable everywhere you look this season.

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Re: Tropical Wave WSW of CV Islands

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 01, 2013 7:47 pm

8 PM TWD:

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN
9N AND 13N. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A
MODERATE MAXIMUM JUST TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
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Re: Tropical Wave SW of CV Islands

#5 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:22 am

hurricanes1234 wrote:I wouldn't believe it just yet. There's something unfavourable everywhere you look this season.

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I wouldn't say it couldnt be a threat, the 6zGFS this morning had this becoming quite the hurricane at the end of its run and the 12z had it as a tropical storm at 15 days near Belize and once again has a tropical storm near Belize on the 0Z and start development at hr204 but its super long range and as we all know things can change and I'm not buying this until something shows up like that at 120hrs or less but it should be monitored just in case

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#6 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 02, 2013 12:59 pm

8 AM TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N34W TO 17N34W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK SURFACE TO 700 MB
TROUGHING WITH A 700 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS
NOTED AT THIS TIME...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 09N-17N
BETWEEN 28W-37W.
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#7 Postby Gustywind » Wed Oct 02, 2013 7:10 pm

8 PM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N35W TO 11N35W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF OF RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...LITTLE OR NO CURVATURE INDICATED IN THE SATELLITE
WINDS. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.
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#8 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 02, 2013 11:11 pm

this IMO is something that needs to be watched as the 18zGFS shows this developing in the Caribbean in the long run but keeps pushing it back to the next day so this may not become anything or its going to be a surprise storm

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#9 Postby Gustywind » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:58 pm

8 PM TWD


TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N45W TO 11N46W MOVING W AT NEAR 20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE.
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#10 Postby Gustywind » Sat Oct 05, 2013 5:52 am

8 AM TWD

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N48W TO 16N51W TO 11N51W MOVING W
AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.
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