EPAC: NARDA - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

EP, 93, 2013100212, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1067W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

[supercane4867]

Unlikely to develop IMO

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED OCT 2 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

With the exception of Hurricane Henriette, the ePac has been very pathetic this year, with a bunch of weak tropical storms and no major hurricanes. This will likely reflect the year and develop into nothing, like 92E and a whole group of recent invests did. There is barely any reasonable moisture associated with this, and it's heading straight towards the famous 2013 ePac Dry Air Patch, which I have a separate thread on. Other than Henriette, many storms have weakened unexpectedly in favourable conditions. So no, I expect nothing out of this right now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

1. What's going on here? Two areas of interest now?
2. Personally, I would love to see this system(s) form, because it has steadily been dipping southwestward towards the equator. This may set a southernmost record if it forms, and continues this motion. It's time for a nice fish in the ePac, even if it's just a 60 mph storm like Alvin.

[hurricanes1234]

Convection is firing. I'd still expect it to be 10% by 11PM PDT, though.

[Yellow Evan]

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

[hurricanes1234]

Looking a little better organised.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 5 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. NUMEROUS BUT DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 775
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER LANDSEA

[hurricanes1234]

Most models develop this to a moderately strong TS over the open waters, including the SHIPS.

[Yellow Evan]

Now it's deciding to kinda wanna form. Maybe season not done after all

[hurricanes1234]

Oh my gosh! Please bring ePac back to life!

1. UPDATED...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE LATER THIS WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%/70%

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 900
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...HAVE CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

[hurricanes1234]

Something is forming!

[euro6208]

one last chance before the epac dies down...

[hurricanes1234]

A renumber seems almost imminent. Looking like a TS (looks like one).

[Extratropical94]

A renumber seems almost imminent. Looking like a TS (looks like one).

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep932013_ep142013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310061914
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

No TS yet though:

EP, 14, 2013100618, , BEST, 0, 128N, 1180W, 30, 1007, TD

[hurricanes1234]

[Hurricane_Luis]

Haha, Someone's happy.

Tropical Depression 14E

[Yellow Evan]

Not a bad looking system believe or not.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 118.5W
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES




TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME PERSISTENT AND
BETTER ORGANIZED IN A BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.0 FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF
GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD GIVE
THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RATE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL
EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE MID-LATITUDE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SO STRONG BY
DAYS 4-5 THAT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN
RESULTING IN DISSIPATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS BUT IS A
BIT LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEWLY FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE ON
A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH
DIGGING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.
IN RESPONSE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER WEAKENING. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3
BUT GIVES THE ECMWF MODEL MORE WEIGHT ON DAYS 4-5. THIS TREND IS
BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DRASTICALLY
AND BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED MODEL
GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.9N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 13.2N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 13.5N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 14.1N 124.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.9N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 16.0N 126.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 16.5N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN