ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

tropicwatch · #201 Postby **tropicwatch** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:50 am

blp wrote:From the 8am

AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

What time are they heading out?

Should be taking off anytime now.

Hurricaneman · #202 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:51 am

jhpigott wrote:Near 85W, 20N looks suspect. See some low level turning and new convection firing over the area

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

thats close to where I would put it 84.5W 20.1N but thats farther northeast than models had it so it may indeed hit the big bend area and cause rain and gusty winds for the peninsula if it gains any real strength

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#203 Postby **NDG** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:59 am

I would place the COC near 19.2N & 85.2W by looking at the hd vis satellite loop.
Definitely it has a closed circulation this morning compared to yesterday when it was nothing but a sharp trough of low pressure.

Aric Dunn · #204 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:01 am

recon take off at 1:30

#205 Postby **xironman** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:14 am

Obviously it is going to get ripped in the NW quadrant http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013100206/gfs_uv200_watl_17.png but if it shifts a bit east maybe not so bad. Also it will be moving in basically the same direction as the UL winds.

Sanibel · #206 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:15 am

Curvature improving. The west Caribbean at this time of year could be a fuel injector.

#207 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:16 am

The latest recon POD says take-off 1445Z (30 min ago) and on site by 18Z (1pm CDT). No reports yet. Hope they do take off in time to get there before late afternoon. Not sure why they always leave so late in the day if the NHC needs to issue an advisory by 21Z. Why not fly there in the morning and have the investigation finished by 18Z?

#208 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:17 am

I'm thinking with the current convective increases and organization that Recon finds a weak Tropical Storm by this afternoon. I don't really see anything to hold this back currently from steadily organizing and deepening.

#209 Postby **Dave C** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:19 am

I just ran a loop of water vapor and it almost looked like there is a weak upper-low located at the ne tip of the yucatan, maybe just my tired eyes but what do you guys think?

Aric Dunn · #210 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:25 am

wxman57 wrote:The latest recon POD says take-off 1445Z (30 min ago) and on site by 18Z (1pm CDT). No reports yet. Hope they do take off in time to get there before late afternoon. Not sure why they always leave so late in the day if the NHC needs to issue an advisory by 21Z. Why not fly there in the morning and have the investigation finished by 18Z?

cycloneye posted todays TPOD take off at 16z... nevermind that for tomorrow... hmm yeah not sure about today then..

#211 Postby **NDG** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:28 am

From far away it looks like an Scorpion

It still has some organization to go through.

#212 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:31 am

Yet this buoy is showing no signs of a closed LLC approaching.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

#213 Postby **NDG** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:34 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Yet this buoy is showing no signs of a closed LLC approaching.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

Actually, my estimate of any closed COC is south west of this buoy, if you look at the way the winds have shifted during the morning it clearly shows that any circulation passed to the south of this buoy.
What I meant by not being well organized is that most of the convection is well east of the possible closed LLC by no means the COC is naked from convection.

robbielyn · #214 Postby **robbielyn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:35 am

when it looks like a baby in utero then you know you've got something

'CaneFreak · #215 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:35 am

LOL. It does look like a scorpion. Don't foresee any significant development today. Maybe tomorrow.

NDG wrote:From far away it looks like an Scorpion
It still has some organization to go through.
http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... f698d8.jpg

Aric Dunn · #216 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:37 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Yet this buoy is showing no signs of a closed LLC approaching.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

actually that works perfect check the previous obs.. the wind has switched from E to ese to sse... meaning the center passed just to the south of it very close.. and it fits well with sat and microwave estimates of the center location.

also may be multiple vorts in there too causing odd data..

#217 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:38 am

Definitely starting to get that "look" as it approaches the GOM. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

#218 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:39 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:The latest recon POD says take-off 1445Z (30 min ago) and on site by 18Z (1pm CDT). No reports yet. Hope they do take off in time to get there before late afternoon. Not sure why they always leave so late in the day if the NHC needs to issue an advisory by 21Z. Why not fly there in the morning and have the investigation finished by 18Z?

cycloneye posted todays TPOD take off at 16z... nevermind that for tomorrow... hmm yeah not sure about today then..

Nothing yet about the flight going on nor a last minute cancellation.

#219 Postby **Dave** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:39 am

Takeoff for todays mission was scheduled at 1445 Z (1045 am edt)....nothing yet. (1445 not 1430 UTC)

Nothing on raw data either.

#220 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Oct 02, 2013 10:39 am

I see evidence of a broad, weak circulation - too weak and ill-defined to be classified as a TD at this time.

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