Before getting to the main point...a little aside that with an already symmetrical shape...Isabel is tightening the eyewall just a bit and is probably closer to 135/140 knots than 130 right now imho...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
With the tutt laying off the northeastern outflow...Isabel had been working with 2 outflow channels...but the big poleward one has opened up significantly and is probably th reason it has intensified.
In terms of where the high will build back in...other thant the european model...the other models are shifting slightly to the right...which is good news for Florida. However...that still happens at day 5 which is still way out there in terms of anyone or any models ability to accurately forecast the location and intensity of the next ridge. In another 36 hours the NOAA jet will be out there and Friday night's runs will have that data in there.
Of course...I'll be up to watch the data come in...but if you aren't a night owl like me...Saturday morning will be our first real good idea of what could happen.
Until then...just have to wait and adjust...but in my mind Saturday is a key signpost.
MW
Isabel Close to Cat 5...and Hurry up and Wait
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
excerpt
excerpt from hpc...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW MERGES/IS ABSORBED BY THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE
TWO HIGHS TO MERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...GA/AL/FL...
RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PRECIP PATTERN...FAVORING EAST COAST AND COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE
OVERNIGHT TO MID DAY AND THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY POTENTIAL THREAT FROM HURRICANE ISABEL WILL BE BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STAY TUNED
makes things interesting . The developemnt and movement of the low off the carolinas will have alot to do with what happens with the future steering of isabel. going to be a long long weekend. lots of caffine
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE CUTOFF LOW MERGES/IS ABSORBED BY THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE
TWO HIGHS TO MERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...GA/AL/FL...
RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
PRECIP PATTERN...FAVORING EAST COAST AND COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE
OVERNIGHT TO MID DAY AND THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ANY POTENTIAL THREAT FROM HURRICANE ISABEL WILL BE BEYOND
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. STAY TUNED
makes things interesting . The developemnt and movement of the low off the carolinas will have alot to do with what happens with the future steering of isabel. going to be a long long weekend. lots of caffine
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: dl20415, Google [Bot], Kennethb, TampaWxLurker and 35 guests