ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Its very likely a TD. and moving nw to nnw. Put the center around 19.5n 84w... looks like it may end up shooting the channel.

[jhpigott]

convection waning, but the cloud deck is fanning out nicely -


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[Blown Away]

Its very likely a TD. and moving nw to nnw. Put the center around 19.5n 84w... looks like it may end up shooting the channel.

looking like a TD/TS to me...

[BUCMAN48]

Aric,

If it went to the Big Bend Of FL would west coast still get squally weather?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric,

If it went to the Big Bend Of FL would west coast still get squally weather?

most of the rain should be on the east side of the system. so yeah

[Frank2]

Here in Southern Florida my local area has received about 3-4" of rain since mid-morning - perhaps influenced by the disturbance to the south...

Frank

[robbielyn]

depending on how large the storm is and what trajectory it comes in at. if it were a small storm and headed nne then not much wind maybe a little bit of rain for us. If it was a large system and headed ne then we would get more.

[beoumont]

Shades of the 2000 season? Two late season duds in the NE Gulf.

[blp]

This thing is ready to take off. I see improved outflow on the West side with banding become apparent.

[chaser1]

Its very likely a TD. and moving nw to nnw. Put the center around 19.5n 84w... looks like it may end up shooting the channel.

http://img820.imageshack.us/img820/4665/omk.gif

looking like a TD/TS to me...

Definitely showing expanding outflow at the moment. I kind of think its a "now or never" thing though and if a better organized core needing increased and sustained convection over the COC doesn't adequetly occur within the next 12 hours, than I just don't see it happening at all. The expanding outflow is sure helping its cause, but I just dont see enough banding features or west semicircle convective inflow features to think its attained TD status; Might change/improve during the next 6-12 hours - Climo would say so, but 2013 might have other ideas.

By the way, someone earlier did mention noticing a small upper low near the NE tip of Yucatan. I see that too, but not sure where it came from. Looks more like a very small upper level eddie and is more or less moving in tandum with the system itself. I dont think it'll have much impact either way, unless it were to drop more southward that would potentially serve to further ventilate the outflow on the systems western side.

[cycloneye]

70%/70%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE.

[blp]

500mb vort that was off to the NE is moving toward the low level vort and is not very far now. This is on its way to getting stacked. The main inhibiting factor is see is the possible land interaction.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor2&zoom=&time=

['CaneFreak]

WOW. Looks like I underestimated this guy. Looking good this afternoon. Maybe recon will find a TD or TS. Wanted the afternoon off but it looks like mother nature has other plans.

[Hammy]

live updating radar loop from Cancun

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/karen13/Karen_3Oct13_canc.gif

[Dean4Storms]

Winds last hour gusting to 31kts and pressure headed downward at the buoy in the Channel....


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[blp]

By the way, someone earlier did mention noticing a small upper low near the NE tip of Yucatan. I see that too, but not sure where it came from. Looks more like a very small upper level eddie and is more or less moving in tandum with the system itself. I dont think it'll have much impact either way, unless it were to drop more southward that would potentially serve to further ventilate the outflow on the systems western side.

There is a small ULL but it has weakened considerably in the last 6 hours and looks to be dissipating. That was causing the disruption in outlflow on the western side before.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=vor1&zoom=&time=

[wxman57]

It still appears that the circulation is too broad and weak for an upgrade this afternoon. Probably tomorrow, though.

[Dean4Storms]

This system is organizing pretty quickly now and appears pretty close to being stacked.
Also looks like a more NW to NNW movement last few hours.

[chaser1]

live updating radar loop from Cancun

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/karen13/Karen_3Oct13_canc.gif

Funny, did you happen to notice the name "Karen" in the URL of that radar site?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

And here we are yet again, another high percentage invest making its way into the gulf. what is going to happen? Will this actually be the one to survive or will it see the same fate as the others? think I will wait and see what it does once it gets into the gulf and how strong the front actually is.