ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

wow the center being pulled very quickly to the n to nne into that convection recon did a quick turn around and the center moved/ reforming north of the previous location..

Yeah I see that. Should be interesting to see just how far north it gets here. I have been leaning towards the Eastern Gulf solution...given a westward bias with the models which don't deepen this system as much as it could deepen, which will allow it to move more poleward then eventually get shunted NE with the front dropping down. Going to be a timing situation here. Worst weather on the east side of the system, even if it tracks more into the Central Gulf.

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[SFLcane]

great floater here..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html

[chaser1]

What a potential difference maker if this potential center relocated convective bursting were to continue for at least the balance of the evening, verses that sudden "poof" that we've almost come to anticipate this year.

[Sanibel]

Buoy 42056 shows a SSE wind, meaning the center is SW of the main burst and to the dry side.

[Aric Dunn]

lol recon did another loop.. looks like they are set up to get it this time.

[alienstorm]

Wow by far the best looking system this year, now looks to be really getting the act together. The location and explosive development this afternoon and the fact that the conditions appear ideal at this time may indeed point to a Hurricane down the line. Models will be changing once the information obtain from Recon goes into them.

[ozonepete]

Of notable importance is that the center may very well stay over water or just nick the extreme northeastern Yucatan. That's obviously significant since it allows for more intensification; most of the models have not yet included that very positive (for intensity) scenario yet.

[xironman]

Not that hard to believe when you have a buoy having sustained 31kt winds.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Not that hard to believe when you have a buoy having sustained 31kt winds.

Agreed

[chaser1]

well, "if" and "when" we do finally have a clear defined center to follow, it will be very interesting to then see how the models do with 97L. I certainly would think most would indicate some greater eastward tendancy

How east? Towards NE?

I would'nt think so, perhaps though an initial motion closer to NNW and then depending on several factors (storm intensity included), then possibly a turn more due North a bit sooner than on prior model runs. I'm guessing a possibility of Ceder Key north/west to Tallahassee perhaps. I would think that the models might respond differently too if we were talking about a 1005mb depression or possibly a 997mb storm (especially given this systems fairly large envelope size).

[lester]

hooray, a light west wind

[chaser1]

lol recon did another loop.. looks like they are set up to get it this time.

What? Government's shutting down.... hey at this point these guys are just havin' a good ol time! Got to really give it too them for persistance!

[jlauderdal]

great floater here..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html

gotta love a great floater...

[chaser1]

great floater here..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html

gotta love a great floater...

make mine a double please

[SFLcane]

great floater here..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLOAT1/anim8vis.html

gotta love a great floater...

HEY.. Still in awe atleast in sat appearance to see this in our basin.

[chaser1]

Right? And here I thought the slimmest chance of seeing anything this good, was going to be somewhere closer to the Azores LOL

[Aric Dunn]

plenty of evidence for a closed circ. there have been multiple systems this year with little to no west winds. the has decent wind shift..

[SunnyThoughts]

plenty of evidence for a closed circ. there have been multiple systems this year with little to no west winds. the has decent wind shift..

So do you think there will be a special advisory? Straight to TS, or depression?

[chaser1]

Guesses on a Special Advisory by 7:00pm??

[Aric Dunn]

plenty of evidence for a closed circ. there have been multiple systems this year with little to no west winds. the has decent wind shift..

So do you think there will be a special advisory? Straight to TS, or depression?

There might just be..