Since about 10 pm last night, it is once again becoming increasingly clear to me that Isabel is a fish. I KNOW. ANOTHER 180. But Henri is much stronger now and I think it will stay strong and drive Isabel right out to sea. I don't buy that Henri will only create a TEMPORARY break in the ridge. I feel a lot better now....Henri will save the U.S. Who would have thought?
BTW, Most of the models are showing a north turn. GREAT NEWS. AND GFS has shifted it's track DRAMATICALLY AS WELL.
It's important to pick up on the little things-THEY MATTER
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rob8303
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It's important to pick up on the little things-THEY MATTER
Last edited by rob8303 on Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Josephine96
I wouldn't go that far in saying she is a fish, but yes she is currently farther north than previously expected with a current track north of due west and expected to turn even more northward in the next 24-36 hrs. I have an idea florida may have less of a chance of getting effected than the past few days, but obviously its still far far off from being a done deal. i would be more inclined toward a more mid atlantic possibility with the way she has been gaining latitude for the past few days rather than riding a true due west line for 4 days like she had been predicted to do.
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mf_dolphin
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The last loop I looked at still showed a due west heading. To declare Isabel a fish is both undefendable and irresponsible at this point in time IMO. The models have shifted north some but again these are 4-5 day projections and not yet verified. WIth the ridge forecast to rebuild by everything I've seen so far this would just allow Isabel to get a little further north before turning west again.
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wrkh99
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GalvestonDuck
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GalvestonDuck
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rob8303
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wrkh99 wrote:This is storm is NOT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
People please stop posting false info
How do you explain the models then? GFS has this not hitting anywhere on the easterneseaboard until NYC. Most of the other models trend North. It is not false info to say that the GFS shows a hit on NYC at the moment, No where else and it is not false to say models are trending north. WHAT EXACTLY is false? And it is not false to say Henri is creating a weakness, Isabel might go straight through. What is false?
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wrkh99 wrote:This is storm is NOT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
People please stop posting false info
here is just one source of the possible northward turn. from the NHC
"ISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FORCING ISABEL TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK. BECAUSE THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPORARELY
WEAKEN...ISABEL COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND THEY ALL SUGGEST A
WEST-NORTHWEST TURN...BRINGING THE CORE OF ISABEL PARALLEL AND JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. IN FACT THE GFS...NO LONGER BRINGS
ISABEL STRAIGHT WESTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GFDL...WHICH
HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR...HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD"
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ColdFront77
The GFS has been going back and forth with a Florida landfall and into the eastern Gulf coast and then up the eastern seaboard to this morning's track of generally due north, parallel to the eastern seaboard.... this goes to show that Florida to the Carolina's remain the potential impact in the next week.
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Rainband
wnw is not north..the adjustment north is because of the weakness that is expected to develop in the ridge..this would mean it would move from west..to wnw ..not northFenrisTS wrote:wrkh99 wrote:This is storm is NOT EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
People please stop posting false info
here is just one source of the possible northward turn. from the NHC
"ISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST FORCING ISABEL TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK. BECAUSE THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPORARELY
WEAKEN...ISABEL COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24
TO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND THEY ALL SUGGEST A
WEST-NORTHWEST TURN...BRINGING THE CORE OF ISABEL PARALLEL AND JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. IN FACT THE GFS...NO LONGER BRINGS
ISABEL STRAIGHT WESTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GFDL...WHICH
HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR...HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD"
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