ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion
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lol recon really having fun
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Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:plenty of evidence for a closed circ. there have been multiple systems this year with little to no west winds. the has decent wind shift..
So do you think there will be a special advisory? Straight to TS, or depression?
There might just be..
The proximity to land justifies one, especially if it's expected to keep organizing at the current rate...
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Re: Re:
SunnyThoughts wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:plenty of evidence for a closed circ. there have been multiple systems this year with little to no west winds. the has decent wind shift..
So do you think there will be a special advisory? Straight to TS, or depression?
I mean NHC upgraded worst invests than this so yes IMO
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:lol recon really having fun
I watched one episode on twc of the hurricane hunters recently...where one of the officers on board ( female) was in charge of pinpointing the location of the center of any storm they flew inside. They all said she was like a bloodhound, could find it no matter how hard it was to pinpoint..maybe she's on board and won't stop till she finds it lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
I think I"ll go with "yes" on a Special Tropical Depression advisory. They're probably wanting to keep it a bit conservative the way systems have fallen apart this year. That, and the fact that there probably will not be another recon out till tomm. sometime, so they won't have any good data outside of bouys and satellite of course. I know if I were making the call, i'd err on the side of caution - just to see if the convection persists a bit longer.
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
Ultimately though, if this plane (now riding on fumes probably) can close off a tight center, and the convective cloud pattern remains status quo for the moment, then its gonna get tagged
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
I don't think they'll upgrade until a VDM comes out, but I will say that it has certainly become more consolidated since earlier, going from a broad mess with apparently multiple vortices to having a somewhat broad but single low pressure area. Estimation based on recon data of the wind flow, a single low seems to be taking hold.
http://s13.postimg.org/dl82bjxvr/Capture.jpg
http://s13.postimg.org/dl82bjxvr/Capture.jpg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
Aric, based on what you are seeing, where do you think the LLC is at?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
Hammy wrote:I don't think they'll upgrade until a VDM comes out, but I will say that it has certainly become more consolidated since earlier, going from a broad mess with apparently multiple vortices to having a somewhat broad but single low pressure area. Estimation based on recon data of the wind flow, a single low seems to be taking hold.
http://s13.postimg.org/dl82bjxvr/Capture.jpg
They've upgraded systems with no VDMs before, so it is possible that they'll upgrade soon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
blp wrote:Aric, based on what you are seeing, where do you think the LLC is at?
about
20.3N 85.8167W lol <----- per northern most more defined Circ.
though probably has migrated more toward the convective burst since then..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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latest recon shows the circulation collapsed so that may have been yet another eddy--SW of where the "circulation" was they're now finding light SE winds. No upgrade anytime in the near future.
Last edited by Hammy on Wed Oct 02, 2013 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
Surprise and it is 2013 in case you were wondering

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Re:
Hammy wrote:latest recon shows the circulation collapsed so that may have been yet another eddy--SW of where the "circulation" was they're now finding light SE winds. No upgrade anytime in the near future.
Huh?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
That looks straight-out wicked! I hope it doesn't hurt anyone..........
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
blp wrote:
Surprise and it is 2013 in case you were wondering
Awesome looking system not to even be classified lol Just shows how looks are deceiving sometimes I guess.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
Aric Dunn wrote:blp wrote:Aric, based on what you are seeing, where do you think the LLC is at?
about
20.3N 85.8167W lol <----- per northern most more defined Circ.
though probably has migrated more toward the convective burst since then..
Thanks
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