ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Holy Crap!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/2420/acpy.jpg

That looks straight-out wicked! I hope it doesn't hurt anyone..........

we have seen impressive sat images before

[jlauderdal]

Holy Crap!

http://img819.imageshack.us/img819/2420/acpy.jpg[/img]

Surprise and it is 2013 in case you were wondering

Awesome looking system not to even be classified lol Just shows how looks are deceiving sometimes I guess.

yep, need a closed system

[Hammy]

latest recon shows the circulation collapsed so that may have been yet another eddy--SW of where the "circulation" was they're now finding light SE winds. No upgrade anytime in the near future.

Huh?

Where I thought I had seen a circulation before, south of there they found nothing but southerly winds, and southwest of there around where the plane turned back around to the north, there are light southeast winds. So either the circulation center collapsed or it was another eddy being tracked. Until this consolidates better and they manage to find an actual defined circulation, I don't see it getting upgraded. Winds are all out of the east to the wait of where the low appeared to be forming earlier.

[ozonepete]

latest recon shows the circulation collapsed so that may have been yet another eddy--SW of where the "circulation" was they're now finding light SE winds. No upgrade anytime in the near future.

Huh?

Gotta go with Twx13: "Huh?!"

[ozonepete]

Holy Crap!



That looks straight-out wicked! I hope it doesn't hurt anyone..........

we have seen impressive sat images before

Not this season, my friend, we haven't.

[tropicwatch]

Recon finding east winds to the west of where the center was thought to be forming. They should be out of the north. Or the west side winds don't extend out that far maybe?

[Steve]

I disagree alien. There were several different better looking systems this year than what 97l looks like now. The spin and look are probably coming from the mid levels and the ridge over top. Having said that, it is looking better and better. Hopefully we won't get much more than a moderate TS out of it (assuming something classifiable forms). Models are pretty focused on sc la over to the big bend. There also doesn't seem to be that much time to impact. We are probably talking 3-5 days max (sat-mon). Some of the recent runs (GFS) had kind of showed a fairly slow moving system at landfall that maybe pulses a bit near the fl coast which could mean a buttload of rain for points near and east.

My Gun to the head/early morning line would be a 50-55mph system around Navarre/ft Walton early Sunday with heavy rainfall and rip currents as the major threats. We will see and should have a pretty good idea this time tomorrow what's going to happen (does it organize, where is the front and what's the timing, does it cross the channel or the NE tip of the yucatan etc). Again, I think any threat and most of the rain and squalls are east of here.

This post is NOT official.

[ozonepete]

wow, i work for the afternoon and so much changes so quickly. if this stays off teh Yuc, could it go over the loop current and bomb? or conditions aloft further norht just too hostile to worry about any rapid intensification?

There basically is no significant loop current this year. The GOM oceanic circulation this year is very weak. Although SSTs are still very warm and could easily support a strong TC.

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-rgb-long.html

If you pause it at 1945z, and look closely at 20.3N/86.3, and I mean -very- closely, you can see a black dot with a bit of what appear to be mini-feeder bands, this seems to be the small vortex that has been falsely giving the appearance of a circulation center in the recon data off an on for the last few hours. That vortex is now south of the recon position.

[wxman57]

I remember a disturbance in the western Caribbean a few weeks ago that looked like it was really taking off about this time of the day, only to fall apart overnight. Now I think it's well on its way to becoming TS Karen by tomorrow morning, but it's not quite there yet.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Are you guys focusing on the right area?

Broad but apparently closed. There's probably an exact center in there somewhere.

[ozonepete]

I disagree alien. There were several different better looking systems this year than what 97l looks like now. The spin and look are probably coming from the mid levels and the ridge over top. Having said that, it is looking better and better. Hopefully we won't get much more than a moderate TS out of it (assuming something classifiable forms). Models are pretty focused on sc la over to the big bend. There also doesn't seem to be that much time to impact. We are probably talking 3-5 days max (sat-mon). Some of the recent runs (GFS) had kind of showed a fairly slow moving system at landfall that maybe pulses a bit near the fl coast which could mean a buttload of rain for points near and east.

My Gun to the head/early morning line would be a 50-55mph system around Navarre/ft Walton early Sunday with heavy rainfall and rip currents as the major threats. We will see and should have a pretty good idea this time tomorrow what's going to happen (does it organize, where is the front and what's the timing, does it cross the channel or the NE tip of the yucatan etc). Again, I think any threat and most of the rain and squalls are east of here.

This post is NOT official.

You would have to post a satellite image of a developing TC from this season to back that statement up. Good luck...

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finding east winds to the west of where the center was thought to be forming. They should be out of the north. Or the west side winds don't extend out that far maybe?

yeah very odd.. though probably another vort rotating around.. have counted 3 already...

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO at 70%-70%

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS EXTENSIVELY
INVESTIGATED THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND DETERMINED THAT THE SYSTEM DID NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
GALE FORCE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY
TIME TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY
EARLY THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

[Dean4Storms]

Best looking non TC in the NW Carib. Sea I've ever seen!

Would you call it just a Tropical Wave?

[Hammy]

Will the scheduled overnight flight still occur?

[Steve]

I hear you Pete but that's not what he said unless I misread the post. I also started it a few frames ago and had to put the iPad down for an hour or so. It actually looks pretty bad ass on the last couple of visibles, even if the look is coming from the middle levels.

[Alyono]

Will the scheduled overnight flight still occur?

almost certainly it will not. Next recon tomorrow afternoon

[MGC]

Looks can be deceiving....there has been plenty of disturbances with great looking satellite presentation lacking a well defined surface circulation. This could be the case. However, it appears 97L is rapidly becoming better organized this afternoon. I think the MCL will bore down to the surface sometime tonight and we'll have a TS soon. Timing with the front will be critical where this system crosses the coast. Currently, I'm thinking Destin to SE La. Could be approaching hurricane intensity......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Annie Oakley]

From the simpe folks-how does one delete a post?

Twx13: "Huh?!"