ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[caneman]

I see no dry air in it. Nice moisture envelope that appears to have overcome any dry air

[gatorcane]

RAL update. It has turned to the NW, now moving at 335. Was 300 earlier today.

At 0000 UTC, 03 October 2013, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL97) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 20.4°N and 86°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 335 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2013/al972013/

[ozonepete]

We also can't rule out the dry air that could also get entrained into the system when it gets into the gulf. Many times dry air has gotten entrained even into a hurricane to suck the moisture right out of its sails. Might not destroy 97L, but it could make it a weaker system that's for sure. Dry air in the gulf and the atlantic at the mid levels has been more problematic for development this season than even the sheer has. Although this will develop in the short term, the dry air's affect on this system may be a major player in the final outcome. That's if the proverbial wall blocking the dry air doesn't weaken its defenses after a while allowing entrainment. Right now the system is creating its own moist environment. But there's dry air to west and east of the system.

Some dry air is already being entrained into the system if you asked me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

You'd have to elaborate. I don't see dry air entrainment at all.

[MGC]

Any estimates on how fast 97L is moving to the NW or NNW?.......MGC

[robbielyn]

looks like she is possibly going to barely clip the yucatan. she might just miss it though moving NNW. edited after reviewing sat again.

[gatorcane]

Any estimates on how fast 97L is moving to the NW or NNW?.......MGC

According to RAL 00Z update, moving 9 Kt at 335. See my post above.

[SouthFloridawx]

Wouldn't you think a center would form under the consistent blob of convection?

[Aric Dunn]

Wouldn't you think a center would form under the consistent blob of convection?

It should..

[OuterBanker]

Between NW (315) and NNW (345). That track would shoot the gap. Also, if it kept that bearing track would shift east.

[Aric Dunn]

Between NW (315) and NNW (345). That track would shoot the gap. Also, if it kept that bearing track would shift east.

most of the reliable 18z models already shifted east a little in response to the farther north position

[Frank P]

Between NW (315) and NNW (345). That track would shoot the gap. Also, if it kept that bearing track would shift east.

I think the timing of the approaching cold front as well as the intensity of the storm will impact the track much more than trying to read the heading of a system that still does not have a well defined center noted... my humble opinion only...

[bamajammer4eva]

I noticed that a Hurricane Eloise hitting Panama City in 1974 as a Cat 3 is considered an analog storm for 97L based on track according to this

http://imgur.com/ReU57Ju

A trough was also involved as it entered the gulf and it actually helped strengthen the storm. Seems like a trough also helped Charley of 04 to strengthen fast. Just wondering if perhaps something like this is why the GFS brings 97L to 989mb Tropical Storm instead of keeping it weak?

Despite favorable upper-level conditions, its interaction with land—combined with the weakening of a ridge to the north—left the storm's center distorted. Eloise remained a fairly disorganized tropical storm until September 20, when it approached the Yucatan Peninsula and began to re-intensify. The storm crossed over the northern tip of the peninsula as it began to turn northward in response to an approaching trough. Between September 17 and September 21, however, reports on the storm were scarce, leading to uncertainty in its exact location and strength. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Eloise quickly organized. The trough enhanced the wind divergence over the storm's center,[1] allowing it to strengthen once again to reach hurricane force about 345 miles (555 km) south of New Orleans, Louisiana.[2]

More
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Eloise

[caneman]

I noticed that a Hurricane Eloise hitting Panama City in 1974 as a Cat 3 is considered an analog storm for 97L based on track according to this

http://imgur.com/ReU57Ju

A trough was also involved as it entered the gulf and it actually helped strengthen the storm. Seems like a trough also helped Charley of 04 to strengthen fast. Just wondering if perhaps something like this is why the GFS brings 97L to 989mb Tropical Storm instead of keeping it weak?

Despite favorable upper-level conditions, its interaction with land—combined with the weakening of a ridge to the north—left the storm's center distorted. Eloise remained a fairly disorganized tropical storm until September 20, when it approached the Yucatan Peninsula and began to re-intensify. The storm crossed over the northern tip of the peninsula as it began to turn northward in response to an approaching trough. Between September 17 and September 21, however, reports on the storm were scarce, leading to uncertainty in its exact location and strength. Upon entering the Gulf of Mexico, Eloise quickly organized. The trough enhanced the wind divergence over the storm's center,[1] allowing it to strengthen once again to reach hurricane force about 345 miles (555 km) south of New Orleans, Louisiana.[2]

More
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Eloise

It could. We've seen many storms here that either held their own or increased in strength. Fronts don't always tear them apart especially since they are moving with the flow.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Dry air is limiting the extent of upper-level outflow to the west [...at least compared to other quadrants]. It shouldn't be significantly detrimental to the intensification of 97L/Karen/whatever it is until strong upper-level winds start impacting the storm on Saturday, however.

[alienstorm]

All I have to say is if this was out in the Atlantic it would be named. Not to say that it should be because recon could not closed off a center but how impressive it looks on satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

if a circ does not form under or near the deep convection/ mid level circ ill be shocked

[ozonepete]

So would I. I think it's a done deal. CDO is growing and DMAX has not even begun yet.

[SunnyThoughts]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT

Well I guess if this second flight is still a "go" we will get a chance to find out within a few hours if the system is indeed organizing underneath that deep convection.

[ozonepete]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSTECT AREA -- CNTRAL CARIBBEAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. AFXXX 0212A CYCLONE
C. 02/1445Z C. 03/0300Z
D. 18N 85W D. 21N 86W
E. 1730-2200Z E. 0530-1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT E. SFC TO 10,000FT

Well I guess if this second flight is still a "go" we will get a chance to find out within a few hours if the system is indeed organizing underneath that deep convection.

It has to be. There's no way it could be producing a CDO like that with banding and good upper level outflow unless the system was consolidating its mid and lower level circulations.

[SFLcane]

We also can't rule out the dry air that could also get entrained into the system when it gets into the gulf. Many times dry air has gotten entrained even into a hurricane to suck the moisture right out of its sails. Might not destroy 97L, but it could make it a weaker system that's for sure. Dry air in the gulf and the atlantic at the mid levels has been more problematic for development this season than even the sheer has. Although this will develop in the short term, the dry air's affect on this system may be a major player in the final outcome. That's if the proverbial wall blocking the dry air doesn't weaken its defenses after a while allowing entrainment. Right now the system is creating its own moist environment. But there's dry air to west and east of the system.

Some dry air is already being entrained into the system if you asked me.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/wv-animated.gif

You'd have to elaborate. I don't see dry air entrainment at all.

Ah! Eyes apparently still playing tricks on me..not used to seeing such beautiful sat images in this basin as of late. I will also be shocked of HH doesn't find a TS in there later 2nite.