ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

I just don't see it getting any farther west than NOLA at best, more likely the FL panhandle, and if this would be mid to late Sept I would be worried.. its October.... we don't get bad hurricanes in MS in October....


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I just don't see it getting any farther west than NOLA at best, more likely the FL panhandle, and if this would be mid to late Sept I would be worried.. its October.... we don't get bad hurricanes in MS in October....


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And the Northeast doesn't get baroclinically-enhanced hurricanes in October either...not commonly anyways.

But it happened.

Please don't let your guard down just because it's now October.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I'm guessing all the rain we've had here in SE florida is from 97L. It's still raining hard here and the streets are flooded pretty badly.

by miami airport bad too and i hear by dadeland real bad their got 7.9 inch rain now new update their saying 10.0 inch rain now

And they're still expecting 1 to 3 inches more with the storms not moving.

[ozonepete]

From just viewing the most recent IR Sat loops looks to me that it (the center) will still clip the NE section of the Yucatan and maybe go inland 50-75 miles or so... I don't think it will shoot the gap... my opinion only..

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It won't matter. That little difference won't affect strengthening much in the short term. It's how much shear it encounters after that that counts. The further north and northeast it goes the less shear it will encounter. And it sure looks like it will not go inland west of Mobile at this point. More likely going towards the Florida Panhandle or near the Big Bend which the models have more or less indicated for a day or two now.

[SFLcane]

Convection still expanding..

[Aric Dunn]

Nw wind in cancun the center is going to shoot the channel.. very likely that a center is consolidating under the MLC

[ozonepete]

Yup. NW wind and yet barometer is still dropping there. So it will shoot thru the Channel and is intensifying as it goes.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, wonder what the chances are of us waking up to a tropical storm?

[MGC]

I'd say there is a pretty good chance we wake up with Karen....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Hurricaneman]

I think looking at the Satellite pics this may become a hurricane at some point and maybe the GFS has the best handle on this. I also think with this going about 75 to 100miles farther east than modeled by the GFS that this may end up going over the northern part of the Peninsula as opposed to the Panhandle or big bend area.

This might surprise many at landfall being anything from a 50mph ts if shear becomes a player to a 100mph hurricane if shear doesnt become that big a player

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Hurrilurker]

It looks to me like the structure is improving, but it's also pulling in some drier air (9pm PT).

[ROCK]

Interesting tid bit...HAARP. Has been off since MAY...it was turned back on yesterday.....just saying...

[supercane4867]

Fresh ASCAT

[Hammy]

Fresh ASCAT

Could this be enough for a 5am upgrade?

[Alyono]

not conclusive that the circ is closed

[LaBreeze]

Will interaction with the land at the tip of the Yucatan affect any directional course? Just wondering...

[stormkite]

Outer portion of Invest 97L's circulation as seen from an airplane about 10 hour's ago.

[MGC]

97L is moving right along and should enter the GOM by dawn. Convection looks healthy near the circulation center.....MGC

[Alyono]

Based upon the NHC outlook, probably wont have a 5 am upgrade either

[Sanibel]

That SCAT looks rotten. I'm surprised.