ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

[fci]

If not 5:00, then 11:00 for Karen.
Just remember while it is looking impressive now all the forecasts have been for not so ideal conditions the further north it goes.

[caneman]

This has to be one of the best non named storms I've seen!

[summersquall]

Hard to believe there isn't a center under that.

[northjaxpro]

Soon to be Karen has about 24-36 more hours of a decent environment to organize before dry air and increasing southwesterly upper level wind shear start to weaken the cyclone. Thursday will be quite interesting following the reports from Recon for sure. I definitely believe Recon will find a moderate TS when they finally get back in there.

[Hammy]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/karen13/Karen_3Oct13_canc.gif

center looks to be taking shape just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan.

[caneman]

Cancun reporting winds out of the SW. Shouldn't that be enough to classify it?

[caneman]

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/karen13/Karen_3Oct13_canc.gif

center looks to be taking shape just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan.

I would think it would get classified at 5 then!

[northjaxpro]

I have to think NHC will pull the trigger and designate this system Karen at 5 a.m. Also, the system shooting the gap right through the Yucatan Channel.

[chaser1]

That SCAT looks rotten. I'm surprised.

Yes that ASCAT DID look lousy. I can only assume that the surface COC must still be just on the western edge of the convection. I'll say this though, if and when this system can get itself vertically aligned, this really has the look of one of those "buzz-saw" pinwheels that just contract and have a pinhole eye suddenly pop. Notice too, how the anticyclone that was extending over the system but centered a little bit to its east, is now pretty firmly planted over it. As long as this intense bursting can maintain itself, than I could see it maintain its integrity with a NNW or North motion perhaps all the way to the coast. If that bursting starts to wain though, then it would seem to me that the upper high would start eroding right away and slide eastward due to advancing southwesterly upper level winds ahead of the approaching short wave.

I just don't see it making it as far west as 87.5. I think a maintained convective structure while moving north could well become a hurricane and if pressed to pick landfall, I'd guess from Carrabelle Fl. to Ceder Key, Fl. Depending on motion and timing, I don't think a Cat 2 at landfall is that out of the question (though there would be some pretty stiff odds in 'Vegas against that right now).

By the way, the 0Z runs of the CMC (GEM) and NAVGEM both trended stronger than their prior 18Z model runs.

[supercane4867]

Up to 40kt and still no TS

AL, 97, 2013100306, , BEST, 0, 215N, 866W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[chaser1]

Wow, just noticed as well that both the GFDL & HWRF 0Z runs also have a deeper storm than their prior 18Z model runs. In fact, that GFDL is nearly 100 miles further east and indicating 974mb and 81 knots winds when passing barely east of S.E. Louisiana.

This really looks like something where you'd expect the "bottom to just fall out"; really intense and persistent bursting going on. Someone else made reference to the 0Z Euro, but I cant seem to find the updated model thus far. If anyone has it, would appreciate posting it.

[Alyono]

EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD

[chaser1]

Up to 40kt and still no TS

AL, 97, 2013100306, , BEST, 0, 215N, 866W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Thats something else, aint it?? Just looks like something that would just have to have 50 knot winds blowing or more. Wonder if there's any cruise ships in the area; bring out the barf bags!

[chaser1]

EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD

Am trying to remember the Euro 12Z run..., did the 0Z run bring it onshore any more east than the prior run?

[Alyono]

Up to 40kt and still no TS

AL, 97, 2013100306, , BEST, 0, 215N, 866W, 40, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 45, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

It's not a TS because there is no true center yet. Need a center for there to be a TS

[caneman]

EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD

Am trying to remember the Euro 12Z run..., did the 0Z run bring it onshore any more east than the prior run?

How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!

[northjaxpro]

That SCAT looks rotten. I'm surprised.

I just don't see it making it as far west as 87.5. I think a maintained convective structure while moving north could well become a hurricane and if pressed to pick landfall, I'd guess from Carrabelle Fl. to Ceder Key, Fl. Depending on motion and timing, I don't think a Cat 2 at landfall is that out of the question (though there would be some pretty stiff odds in 'Vegas against that right now).

By the way, the 0Z runs of the CMC (GEM) and NAVGEM both trended stronger than their prior 18Z model runs.

Well, I agree with you generally. The initial modeling I saw 36 hours ago had the system going over the northern Yucatan Peninsula, so it is already considerably east of that. I am inclined to think that the weather wil be rough for my neighbors just to my west across the panhandle and Big Bend region this weekend. The cyclone will become lopsided by the time the system approaches the coast as shear will cause most of the action onthe eastern quadrant.

[chaser1]

EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD

Am trying to remember the Euro 12Z run..., did the 0Z run bring it onshore any more east than the prior run?

How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!

Well, from the perspective of reported surface winds and convection co-located to the center, I'd kinda agree....except that there just isn't one center yet. I believe that there is a more dominant LLC on the SW corner of the convective mass. However I think while recon was flying hours ago, whatever surface COC they thought that they had found, seemed to either fill or in fact was one of a couple eddies rotating around the larger broad area of low pressure. I did think that the plane was able to close off a broad LLC, but barely due to the very weak west winds in each case. I thought that I had recalled similar (or weaker looking) past systems that also displayed as broad of a LLC but based on persistence, convective pattern and recon finding even a broad or weak LLC... had still tagged the system as a depression. No doubt digging up "which" systems over the years would take some time LOL.

My guess is that another LLC has been trying to form under the deeper convection and perhaps more vertically stacked under the MLC. Whether there is something inhibiting this from yet happening, or perhaps that there just simply is one dominant LLC and it is just having trouble getting convection to wrap around it, the light southerly upper level winds just wouldn't seem to be so overwhelming for 97L to get its act together.

[chaser1]

Well, I agree with you generally. The initial modeling I saw 36 hours ago had the system going over the northern Yucatan Peninsula, so it is already considerably east of that. I am inclined to think that the weather will be rough for my neighbors just to my west across the panhandle and Big Bend region this weekend. The cyclone will become lopsided by the time the system approaches the coast as shear will cause most of the action on the eastern quadrant.

I would think though, that further east in Jax and other points north and south might be at some potential for tornado risk within the fast moving bands??

[caneman]

I have a hard time believing there isn't a center there.