ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#561 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:56 am

One would think that first visible satellite pics would vette this out however if still not quite that obvious with visible pics, than perhaps its just not there yet. If that were the case though, then I would tend to think that a system such as this would start to lose the ongoing battle of southerly shear and the convection would then start eroding near the center and begin to become more linear on its eastern side.

On the other hand, if this were to get its act together pretty soon, and we had a pretty vertically stacked system and falling pressures, than a well ventilated storm with excellent divergence aloft should be able to fend off some light to moderate southerly upper level winds, especially in light of a NNW or potential Northward motion.
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Re: Re:

#562 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:57 am

caneman wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Alyono wrote:EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD


Am trying to remember the Euro 12Z run..., did the 0Z run bring it onshore any more east than the prior run?


How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!


because we need a center!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#563 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:58 am

...all I know is that i'm off to get my dose of 4 hours of sleep :layout: Maybe daylight will shed a few more answers.
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Re: Re:

#564 Postby caneman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:03 am

Alyono wrote:
caneman wrote: How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!


because we need a center!


I understand that. West wind reported from Cancun, 40 mph winds, impressive Sat. images (looks like a broad low). with clearly some type of circulation. Are you referring to recon verified center?

On a side note. The dry air on the Western flank has really flattened out the Western flank. This looks like it could start inhibitating it soon.
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Re: Re:

#565 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:10 am

caneman wrote:
Alyono wrote:
caneman wrote: How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!


because we need a center!


I understand that. West wind reported from Cancun, 40 mph winds, impressive Sat. images (looks like a broad low). with clearly some type of circulation. Are you referring to recon verified center?

On a side note. The dry air on the Western flank has really flattened out the Western flank. This looks like it could start inhibitating it soon.


Now how would dry air flatten out the western side? That would be shear
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#566 Postby stormkite » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:11 am

Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#567 Postby AJC3 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:15 am

97L doesn't look all that great. Its low level vort center is still on the very western edge of the convective mass... where I placed the "X", give or take.

Image
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Re:

#568 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:17 am

stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.


Looking at the visible loop, I'd guess around 21.7 N / 86.8 W, but that's an amateur's opinion.
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#569 Postby Hammy » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:18 am

Upper level situation looking worse than earlier, hurricane intensity is certainly looking less and less like a possibility.
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Re: Re:

#570 Postby beoumont » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:42 am

Extratropical94 wrote:
stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.


Looking at the visible loop, I'd guess around 21.7 N / 86.8 W, but that's an amateur's opinion.


You must have x-ray vision, seeing a visible loop in the middle of the night. Anyway, below is a different IR enhancement still shot:

Image
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Re:

#571 Postby Alyono » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:55 am

Hammy wrote:Upper level situation looking worse than earlier, hurricane intensity is certainly looking less and less like a possibility.


Not sure how you can say that with the models trending more intense. I'd say about a 30 percent chance of a hurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#572 Postby stormkite » Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:58 am

Very nice image above thankyou.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%

#573 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:06 am

ROCK wrote:Interesting tid bit...HAARP. Has been off since MAY...it was turned back on yesterday.....just saying... :lol:


Hi Rock:

Do you have a link? The old URL is unavailable.

Thanks,
GCANE
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Re: Re:

#574 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:08 am

beoumont wrote:
Extratropical94 wrote:
stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.


Looking at the visible loop, I'd guess around 21.7 N / 86.8 W, but that's an amateur's opinion.


You must have x-ray vision, seeing a visible loop in the middle of the night. Anyway, below is a different IR enhancement still shot:

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5086/ptnn.jpg


I'm wearing night vision goggles :D

I know there are no true visible images of the system at night, but I use the SSD's "visible" floater to see if there's any detectable spin. I just like the way they use the IR data to create false-coloured images that look similar to real daytime visible shots.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#575 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:26 am

It missed the Yucatan. Its staying over the water.

Image
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Re:

#576 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:29 am

stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.


NHC certainly hasn't and thus no classification, yet. However, a closed low has been identified no less than 20 times on this board in 20 different locations.. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#577 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:32 am

caneman wrote:I have a hard time believing there isn't a center there.


what leads you to believe there is a center? make your case but IR alone isnt going to cut it. buoy, land obs, charter a plane and take measurements, ship reports..bring it and we will listen
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#578 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:33 am

Outflow on the west side seems to have improved significantly in the last few frames.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-wv-long.html

Looks like the anti-cyclone may be getting more over the top of the LLC.
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Re: Re:

#579 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:35 am

caneman wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Alyono wrote:EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD


Am trying to remember the Euro 12Z run..., did the 0Z run bring it onshore any more east than the prior run?


How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!


nhc gets a center you get a classification, no center by nhc=no name, easy formula to follow

whats the difference if it has a name, we all know what it is doing and generally know where it is going..we know what the global do with it so its ok it doesnt have a name
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Re:

#580 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:37 am

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I have to think NHC will pull the trigger and designate this system Karen at 5 a.m. Also, the system shooting the gap right through the Yucatan Channel.

537 am and the safety is still on the trigger...sorry
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