ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%
One would think that first visible satellite pics would vette this out however if still not quite that obvious with visible pics, than perhaps its just not there yet. If that were the case though, then I would tend to think that a system such as this would start to lose the ongoing battle of southerly shear and the convection would then start eroding near the center and begin to become more linear on its eastern side.
On the other hand, if this were to get its act together pretty soon, and we had a pretty vertically stacked system and falling pressures, than a well ventilated storm with excellent divergence aloft should be able to fend off some light to moderate southerly upper level winds, especially in light of a NNW or potential Northward motion.
On the other hand, if this were to get its act together pretty soon, and we had a pretty vertically stacked system and falling pressures, than a well ventilated storm with excellent divergence aloft should be able to fend off some light to moderate southerly upper level winds, especially in light of a NNW or potential Northward motion.
0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Re:
caneman wrote:chaser1 wrote:Alyono wrote:EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD
Am trying to remember the Euro 12Z run..., did the 0Z run bring it onshore any more east than the prior run?
How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!
because we need a center!
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%
...all I know is that i'm off to get my dose of 4 hours of sleep
Maybe daylight will shed a few more answers.

0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Re:
Alyono wrote:caneman wrote: How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!
because we need a center!
I understand that. West wind reported from Cancun, 40 mph winds, impressive Sat. images (looks like a broad low). with clearly some type of circulation. Are you referring to recon verified center?
On a side note. The dry air on the Western flank has really flattened out the Western flank. This looks like it could start inhibitating it soon.
0 likes
Re: Re:
caneman wrote:Alyono wrote:caneman wrote: How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!
because we need a center!
I understand that. West wind reported from Cancun, 40 mph winds, impressive Sat. images (looks like a broad low). with clearly some type of circulation. Are you referring to recon verified center?
On a side note. The dry air on the Western flank has really flattened out the Western flank. This looks like it could start inhibitating it soon.
Now how would dry air flatten out the western side? That would be shear
0 likes
- AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 3999
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%
97L doesn't look all that great. Its low level vort center is still on the very western edge of the convective mass... where I placed the "X", give or take.


0 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re:
stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.
Looking at the visible loop, I'd guess around 21.7 N / 86.8 W, but that's an amateur's opinion.
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Upper level situation looking worse than earlier, hurricane intensity is certainly looking less and less like a possibility.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- beoumont
- Category 1
- Posts: 473
- Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:13 pm
- Location: East Central Florida
- Contact:
Re: Re:
Extratropical94 wrote:stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.
Looking at the visible loop, I'd guess around 21.7 N / 86.8 W, but that's an amateur's opinion.
You must have x-ray vision, seeing a visible loop in the middle of the night. Anyway, below is a different IR enhancement still shot:

0 likes
List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
Re:
Hammy wrote:Upper level situation looking worse than earlier, hurricane intensity is certainly looking less and less like a possibility.
Not sure how you can say that with the models trending more intense. I'd say about a 30 percent chance of a hurricane
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 70% / 70%
ROCK wrote:Interesting tid bit...HAARP. Has been off since MAY...it was turned back on yesterday.....just saying...
Hi Rock:
Do you have a link? The old URL is unavailable.
Thanks,
GCANE
0 likes
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: Re:
beoumont wrote:Extratropical94 wrote:stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.
Looking at the visible loop, I'd guess around 21.7 N / 86.8 W, but that's an amateur's opinion.
You must have x-ray vision, seeing a visible loop in the middle of the night. Anyway, below is a different IR enhancement still shot:
http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/5086/ptnn.jpg
I'm wearing night vision goggles

I know there are no true visible images of the system at night, but I use the SSD's "visible" floater to see if there's any detectable spin. I just like the way they use the IR data to create false-coloured images that look similar to real daytime visible shots.
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%
It missed the Yucatan. Its staying over the water.


0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re:
stormkite wrote:Has anybody actually pinpointed a closed low.
NHC certainly hasn't and thus no classification, yet. However, a closed low has been identified no less than 20 times on this board in 20 different locations..

0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%
caneman wrote:I have a hard time believing there isn't a center there.
what leads you to believe there is a center? make your case but IR alone isnt going to cut it. buoy, land obs, charter a plane and take measurements, ship reports..bring it and we will listen
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%
Outflow on the west side seems to have improved significantly in the last few frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-wv-long.html
Looks like the anti-cyclone may be getting more over the top of the LLC.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-wv-long.html
Looks like the anti-cyclone may be getting more over the top of the LLC.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: Re:
caneman wrote:chaser1 wrote:Alyono wrote:EC is stronger than before, but into southern Louisiana as a TD
Am trying to remember the Euro 12Z run..., did the 0Z run bring it onshore any more east than the prior run?
How is this not named yet? Should go right to T.S.!!!!
nhc gets a center you get a classification, no center by nhc=no name, easy formula to follow
whats the difference if it has a name, we all know what it is doing and generally know where it is going..we know what the global do with it so its ok it doesnt have a name
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re:
northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I have to think NHC will pull the trigger and designate this system Karen at 5 a.m. Also, the system shooting the gap right through the Yucatan Channel.
537 am and the safety is still on the trigger...sorry
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests