ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Hammy · #581 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:38 am

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

circulation appears to be just under the western edge of the convection, just north of the eastern tip of the Yucatan. Looks like it may be about 45-50 mph right now, probably been closed off for several hours. Any favorable upper conditions though will probably not last too long as the outflow has ceased expanding west, and if you watch the western edge of the upper clouds they are all from the SSW as opposed to SSE earlier.

#582 Postby **HurriGuy** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 4:49 am

One of y'all says outflow on west has looked better while another says outflow on west has ceased. Sometimes its impossible to follow these threads.

Janie2006 · #583 Postby **Janie2006** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:18 am

97L has about 24 hours or so, if that, to "become somebody" before things along the coast get really unfriendly for development. That being said, a lot can happen in a day as the system feels its way toward the weakness between the ridge and the lowering heights over the lower Mississippi River valley.

#584 Postby **xironman** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:25 am

We will know soon enough, the plane is about half way there. And for all the talk about screaming shear at 25K feet in the middle of the gulf they are recording 7kt winds.

#585 Postby **Alyono** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:36 am

if there was going to be screaming shear, why would GFS be indicating a cane at landfall?

#586 Postby **HurriGuy** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:38 am

is it becoming elongated? I'm starting to get that "busted" feel. 92L all over again?

hurricanes1234 · #587 Postby **hurricanes1234** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:40 am

Alyono wrote:if there was going to be screaming shear, why would GFS be indicating a cane at landfall?

The models this year have had a habit of underestimating shear. They expected Ingrid to intensify to a strong hurricane before landfall, but instead, it weakened and remained strongly sheared.

#588 Postby **GCANE** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:41 am

HurriGuy wrote:One of y'all says outflow on west has looked better while another says outflow on west has ceased. Sometimes its impossible to follow these threads.

IMHO looks pretty good on this loop

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+24

ULL at 25N 67W (NE of PR) is in an almost ideal location, directly to the east of 97L, enhancing UL outflow by creating a poleward outflow channel.

#589 Postby **xironman** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:45 am

Really it matters on the progress of the upper level high, the further north it goes the better chances 97l has I think. There is a real tight gradient between the light winds and 30kt at 48hrs.

#590 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 5:59 am

Wow, cannot believe this hasn't formed an LLC yet. Looking more comma shaped this morning, believe we get Karen today.

ronjon · #591 Postby **ronjon** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:04 am

[quote="Janie2006"]97L has about 24 hours or so, if that, to "become somebody" before things along the coast get really unfriendly for development. That being said, a lot can happen in a day as the system feels its way toward the weakness between the ridge and the lowering heights over the lower Mississippi River valley.[/quot

Actually I think it has a good 48-60 hrs before conditions start to deteriorate. GFS forecasted 200 mb winds never exceed 30 kts up till landfall. And the storm will be moving in tandem with the shear. I'm not saying this thing will explode (it is 2013 afterall), but I think the unfavorable conditions have been a little overhyped.

#592 Postby **HurriGuy** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:05 am

IMO....dry air is really not a factor at this point. Last couple of frames on water vapor, the dry air thins out to the west. So if there isn't much sheer in this area, why don't we have a named storm?

hurricanedude · #593 Postby **hurricanedude** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:12 am

no LLC yet..thats why no name system!...give it a few more minutes LOL

#594 Postby **HurriGuy** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:15 am

hurricanedude wrote:no LLC yet..thats why no name system!...give it a few more minutes LOL

no...i knew that
lol.

I was asking because of these conditions why wouldn't a LLC form quicker.

#595 Postby **Pearl River** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:15 am

This may not be the right place, but hurrcanedude, I see you are a Military Member. Thank you for your service!!

#596 Postby **xironman** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:32 am

Breezy out there

Pressure Altitude: 430 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 130° at 46 knots (From the SE at ~ 52.9 mph)

Bunch of SFMR > 40kts

Aric Dunn · #597 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:33 am

ummmm Id like to know what data they have ....

telling me this does not have a well defined circ ?

lol

Aric Dunn · #598 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:40 am

Thus far the upper high and low shear has been moving in tandem.. I think as the trough digs the small upper high is going to lift north with it.

#599 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:41 am

Based on 06z position, still lopsided, but has nice convection ball...

#600 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:44 am

Recon just found 67 knot flight level winds.... Probably 55 knots at the surface already

ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Re:

Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

Who is online