ATL: KAREN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#601 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:46 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon just found 67 knot flight level winds.... Probably 55 knots at the surface already


beat me to it. its likely been a Ts since around 11 last night. partial eyewall on microwave.. may go to hurricane by the time mission is over the way this season is going lol..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#602 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:47 am

Yikes!

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#603 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:50 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon just found 67 knot flight level winds.... Probably 55 knots at the surface already


beat me to it. its likely been a Ts since around 11 last night. partial eyewall on microwave.. may go to hurricane by the time mission is over the way this season is going lol..


What I was NOT wanting to see!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#604 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:56 am

I smell a special advisory coming shortly.
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#605 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:59 am

No way this has over 60mph sustained winds at the surface and not a Tropical Cyclone.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#606 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 6:59 am

cycloneye wrote:I smell a special advisory coming shortly.


yeah no 8am two yet..
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#607 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:00 am

there approaching the center.. near the tip of the yucatan.
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#608 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:03 am

Some pretty constant areas of 50+ mph surface winds on the west side. This could get ugly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#609 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:03 am

Special Advisory for TS Karen within the hour

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO
60 MPH IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A SPECIAL
ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR...AND HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.

ADDITIONALLY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#610 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:03 am

AJC3 was pretty close with his X at 4am.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#611 Postby BUCMAN48 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:03 am

Good morning Aric,

Hope all is well- The latest GFS shows atrend to the east taking the center possibly over the Big Bend area,
what effects would be felt in central Florida in Tampa, St. Pete?
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#612 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:05 am

About time..
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#613 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:08 am

I remember someone discussing earlier this season (I think it was on Crown Weather) around the time TS Andrea was present about how he thought that the place Andrea made landfall may have watch out for another TC hit later in the season. I thought that seemed interesting to me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion - 80% / 80%

#614 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:09 am

BUCMAN48 wrote:Good morning Aric,

Hope all is well- The latest GFS shows atrend to the east taking the center possibly over the Big Bend area,
what effects would be felt in central Florida in Tampa, St. Pete?


well the closer it gets to you the more heavy rain and wind you will see.. tampa may have s good water rises if it came in that ange to the big bend.. but only a few ensemble members take that far east.
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#615 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:13 am

THey missed the center to the south a little. surface and mid lvl circ are a little off. though that may change...
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#616 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:13 am

Maybe there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Gulf Coast?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L -100% / 100% - Special Advisory shortly

#617 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:14 am

Let's see how 12z Best Track has the winds.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al972013_al122013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201310031205
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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#618 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:14 am

Looks like shear is already affecting Karen, it will only get worse for the storm
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Re:

#619 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:14 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Maybe there will be a Hurricane Watch for the Gulf Coast?

"...AND HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST."
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#620 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 03, 2013 7:14 am

Current data incredibly supports a 60 kt intensity given the flight level and SFMR winds...
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